Member Info for Blubay

They'll be expecting gas shows at similar geological levels to Tai-A on the way down, although they're drilling on the other side of the fault line which may move things around a bit. As well as the new seismic data they also did ERT survey to look at the shallow gas potential at Tai.

It's a fairly long job as they have 38 truck loads of stuff to assemble. Like HE1, they had to break their rig and crane down into parts to meet the strict weight limits for Tanzanian roads. The announcement is not news. They were doing it the other day, they were still doing it when they did that interview, they are still doing it now.

Those racks that were in previous photos appear empty in today's arial photo, if it is from today

https://imgur.com/a/E2b7gN2

Yep, Noble is half the cap of HE1, around £27m

Lack of appetite for buying is probably a larger factor than appetite for selling at this stage. Buyers have had plenty of time to review their positions, to get in at or below placing price, top up/average down, or exit and hope for a lower entry, or just wait for a point of lower risk in the drilling process. Key objective now is to safely complete a cased well down to TD, on time and budget. If there are snags and delays then you'll see more appetite for selling.

There is an HE1 development concept set out on slide 25 of the most recent investor presentation, based on modular design for a purification and liquidation plant, with capacity of 1.05 mmcf/day (to fill one 46000 litre ISO container per day), based 6 production wells.

Noble have 38 truck loads of bits to bolt together on-site so I’m not sure they’ll spud this weekend, although they did prep their surface casing in advance.

Presumably, plus the assumed 5.4 from Itumbula

If you want to email the company use the proper address on the website contact page. You may be pleasantly surprised if your enquiry is sensible.

But note also discussion of farm out on slide 5

See slide 25 on the investor presentation slide deck

Personally, I'm quite happy to wait for as long as the company has already indicated we should expect to wait during this phase, unless something changes in the meantime. Like I said before, I have two positions here. One I'm happy to trade on the way if it shows signs of life, the other is a longer term investment.

It was very effectively walked down and it will be walked up again, I would guess

This one...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F67ym8IW0AADsjj?format=jpg

I think you can see lengths of surface or intermediate casing in the photo racked up ready to go into the structural casing once it's fixed and then drilled. Depending on the range they're using, I think those are about 30' long, so five lengths in the photo might give about 150' (?), the others look like a smaller diameter for intermediate casing (?)

Yes, I was wondering about that as we know the lake bed sands proved problematic last time. The cut off mark seemed to be chalked in somewhere between 6 and 7 meters on that 20" structural casing in the photo, so maybe two sections (12 to 14m plus the 6.5m = about 20m, or 60-70 feet?)

Legal - I appreciate some might think that and maybe that has to force the company's hand to make more announcements than should be justified. The UK market is ridiculously risk averse. You only have to look at Tai-1 and the subsequent geological data to know they will encounter gas shows at multiple levels all the way down. Anyone who thinks they won't is either uninformed or deliberately spreading doubt. But we all know that the commercial significance of those shows can't be conclusively evidenced until later in the process. It's fair enough to be cautious about that but suggesting they won't encounter any gas when it's literally bubbling out of the ground nearby is silly.

Which is what happened with HE1 in 2021, when they tweeted the 'discovery' word and then hastily deleted it!

So, assuming that's the night shift handing over this morning, it looks like the conductor is still standing tall in the background there

https://twitter.com/Heliumone1/status/1706920612336136670/photo/1

I think that's a misunderstanding of the reality. The spud RNS is completely standard in its wording, setting out expectations for the key milestones during the drill (TD then logging/sampling). It's completely normal to say that the market will be updated at these key points. But in practice there is also a legal obligation to advise the market of any inside information of relevance to the market (i.e. to share price), so if there is a significant development and there is any risk of it leaking (excuse the pun) then it's also common to get an additional interim announcement. They have to be very careful not to mislead the market though (they must not announce the 'discovery' word until proven). They could announce that they've encountered significant gas shows at shallow or karoo targets on the way down, and indicate the spectrometry from the mud logs. They might try to save up that information until they reach TD but somehow I really doubt it. I can't see them keeping straight faces on Twitter if they hit concentrated helium shows in the karoo target.