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Yes, the real drilling starts this morning, on schedule for around ten days to TD

How do you know which are buys and sells?

It really doesn't help to go ramping like that Cyber, no-one will take it seriously. Let the company do the confidence building in an evidence based way. Obviously there is helium in the karoo layer and that probably is the primary target, but remember that last time the upper karoo sand beds couldn't yield free gas so we are still relying on untested sandstone layers etc beneath. Yes, it's a great prospect but don't go over-ramping it.

And Brent futures well above $90 at the moment

Great to see that 17.5" drill bit turning away on the next section. It's amazing to think back that in 2021 DM was trying to fish for fortune with a wire down a crooked 3.5" hole (seriously, look at that on a ruler!). What a transformation.

I'm not sure they will be that far in yet, as the first work was to get the conductor set and cemented in at the well head. They won't have gained any more depth while that was setting but off to the races now with the next section.

You can see in the video that the drill rig is turning away and it's pretty much fully extended so my guess is that they signed off on the well head yesterday and got that rigged up overnight to start drilling again this morning, just before recording the morning shift video. Certainly not a coincidence that she chose to film herself in front a newly turning drill, excellent clues, looking very confident. So, as long as that drill keeps turning it's all on track for the next section. Great work.

Good question. The company has already proven a working helium system at multiple levels from previous drills, and has good seismic data on which to target this drill. It's pretty certain that they will encounter significant helium gas shows at similar multiple levels, and they may choose to confirm this when they get to terminal depth in say in the next 10-14 days (or with surprise news before then).

Your first gamble is on the drill going to plan and reaching the target depths without snags and delay. Drilling is always risky and the biggest risk for companies with limited capital is any delay leading to cash burn. If there's a snag then the price will be affected, almost certainly. On the plus side, this is a very professional and well equipped drill so they have done everything possible to de-risk the kinds of snags that happened before (chalk and cheese on that score). You could swing trade on any anticipatory rise, confirmation of completing the well, or news of gas shows. The chances of no gas shows are pretty negligible so the drill risk is more mechanical/geological at this point.

Your second gamble is whether the gas shows from the well turn out to be verifiable as a potential commercial asset. Even if they announce multiple gas shows during drilling they can't really confirm the results without also sampling gas in the hole after drilling and getting that independently tested (another two weeks). If they can flow free gas from the well at any kind of concentration and free from hydrocarbons then bingo, there is potential for future appraisal of a commercial operation. But that would require further investment (debt, dilution, a farm out deal to another company, sale of the asset or company takeover), so there is some price risk also after a successful result. So you might be able to trade into expectation or results. Lots of options anyway.

To be honest, I think most people who are in for the drilling stage are already in and most who are waiting for results aren’t afraid of missing out. But great to see that the well head is up and running with the drill rig working away on schedule as planned. Already that helps to de-risk the company’s approach. Good decisions, well executed so far. That all helps to encourage holders and new buyers if there are any still waiting.

One step at a time. It’s still a long way to 10p from here and evidence of discovery at Tai-C isn’t due to be confirmed from lab samples until after drilling starts at Itumbula, or thereabouts. But yes, it would give a huge confidence going into that second drill with an even higher bcf prospect than Tai.

Don’t expect it but equally don’t rule it out. They are managing their comms very well now by balancing scheduled market updates with regular social media during the waiting periods. It’s a great way to build confidence that they’re keeping on track and budget, while knowing that if anything changes that is market sensitive then the market will be updated in due course. I’m very happy with the approach.

Importantly, the conductor has been trimmed down out of sight and that drill is now turning away, so they have cased out the 20” section and are onto the 17.5” section, on schedule, as planned. No hitches. Brilliant.

Great to hear those words on a Friday 👍

https://twitter.com/Heliumone1/status/1707654056037011547

Think you might be right there, so if they had that conductor set in Tuesday morning they might have made a bit of progress by today, and maybe the drill could be turning again tomorrow. With luck we’ll get a some kind of Twitter clue by Monday that we’re on track. If they’re not on the way down before then the two weeks schedule will be slipping

I think you're way off on that timescale. They will hardly have started the main drill section at this point, today/tomorrow, if they've got everything cemented in and pressure tested at the top, then maybe ten days to TD. I think the karoo layers will be the primary target for a possible 'discovery', not going to be this week.

If they go straight through the next ten days or so then the next Operational Update RNS could confirm they reached TD and that they encountered gas shows in mud logs at various levels (and with spectrometry), and that they are moving on to wire logging and sampling, with a timeline for completing that (and shifting the rig over to Itumbula). News is very delicate at that point because they'll want to show maximum confidence without pre-judging lab results.

Wasn't sure if that was wet cement or mud pump but schedule sounds good, let's see what tomorrow's Tweet shows...

If you look at Tai-A there were helium shows identified in all three target formations, including five intervals in the karoo formation with a strong seal over that layer (but no free gas found at the upper sandy level, which was as far as they could wire log). Secondary targets in the Lake Bed and Red Sandstone Formations. I'm guessing the karoo layers are still a significant target for this drill.

Could go either way. The RNS was just the normal way of stating the facts and setting out key reporting milestones but it doesn't rule out interim news, particularly if it affects share price. If they have inside information that is market sensitive then they should disclose it as soon as possible. We can expect the next operational update when they reach TD (roughly two weeks from spud) but there's always a possibility of other news at any time (good or bad).

They're working to O&G process, so there was work to do on consolidating and testing the surface conductor before drilling the 17.5" section. Impossible to know without inside information or an announcement, might get some clues in Tweets but SP will probably be as good a guide as any.