Member Info for Blubay

Mobile phone penetration in Tanzania is overall nearly 100% of population but in Rukwa it’s low. However, both HE1 and third party services will have external contact, and in this case it’s possible the government may also be in the loop.

This week’s Twitter photo hint, Geolog crew showing off their mobile spectrometer

Combined 2U for Tai and Itumbula comes to more than 8 bcf, so $4bn potentially on that price, with an upside multiples above that and lowest estimate still around the $1bn mark

Good work, as always :-)

First stage positive news from Tai would be confirmation that they reached TD as planned and on schedule (hopefully about one week from now) and that they encountered helium shows at multiple levels in mud samples, confirmed by Geolog's mobile spectrometry and that these are consistent with the seismic surveys of a working helium system etc. I think proof of discovery would be contingent on Baker Hughes wire lining and lab testing samples from the well, so that's the stage immediately after the drill (a further two weeks). By then, with luck, the rig will have been moved out to start the second drill at Itumbula, and if that spud news coincides with proof of a commercial discovery at Tai then happy days.

The numbers for Tai and Itumbula are published along with the numbers for all the other licence prospects in HE1s shareholder information. Does NHE say something different, and would you trust them not to err on the side of optimism?

The various Rukwa licence reserves were estimated back in 2020 to total 138 bcf (total of mid estimates). Tai was recently updated to 2.8 bcf (I guess following the new seismic data?) and I think Itumbula was nearly double when it was estimated previously.

“Since He1 have been keeping quiet, what did Noble say the value of their well was ?”

HE1 have been clear in their presentations to shareholders, they even updated the 2U bcf figure for Tai prior to the drill/raise.

“Since He1 have been keeping quiet, what did Noble say the value of their well was ?”

HE1 have been very clear in their presentations to shareholders, they even updated the 2U bcf figure for Tai prior to the drill/raise.

DJ - let’s hope you’re not an English teacher

But I agree that interim gas shows aren't that high priority news as they are fully expected during the drill anyway.

Kevin - under the Market Abuse Regulations, inside information includes any information of a precise nature, relevant to a financial instrument, including listed shares, which "has not been made public [and] ...if it were made public, would be likely to have a significant effect on the prices of those financial instruments...". Moreover, "If there is a leak, the inside information should be released to the market as soon as possible using an appropriate method, even if this requires an announcement during market hours."

"The truth is were told no updates during drill so no updates during drill full stop why invest at this point"

We were not told this at all. Nowhere does it say there will be 'no updates during drill'. There was a very standard worded spud RNS, which says the market will be updated at TD and after logging results but that doesn't at all rule out other market sensitive announcements (positive or negative). Listed companies have a legal obligation to report inside information if it is sensitive to the market (i.e. share price) but a lot depends on whether news leaks out, for example when BCE recently had to issue an RNS to explain the sudden jump in share price mid drill.

Matthew 12:36-37 comes to mind... ;-)

25 Sep 2023 16:06 - Price: 6.15 - "-6.06 it’s a massacre"

25 Sep 2023 16:09 - Price: 6.125 - "‘5p coming folks’ If not lower"

25 Sep 2023 18:43 - Price: 6.025 - "I’ll wait for the 4-5p range then dip my toe in. RNS disaster that. Never use the term “update” kiss of death for an AIM share."

26 Sep 2023 08:33 - Price: 5.875 - "Get rid and buy back cheaper, this is going to have a horrific few days."

26 Sep 2023 10:22 - Price: 5.925 - "In @ 5.99 😀"

26 Sep 2023 10:41 - Price: 5.925 - "will never drop to 5. 8 is a fair price to pay rights now 😉"

26 Sep 2023 13:46 - Price: 6.075 - "Verdict: strong buy"

26 Sep 2023 14:14 - Price: 6.075 - "Blue and on the up. +1.14 %. Follow the money."

26 Sep 2023 19:23 - Price: 5.95 - "if you want to double your dough in a short space of time then yeah 8 am tomorrow"

Today 13:29 - Price: 5.875 - "HE1 will be 12p by Wednesday 4th October 2023. Then 24p by end of month."

If they manage to install the interim pump as planned 'during October' then I'd expect an operational update at that point.

How do you get 12p by next Wednesday? On what basis? Is that like your 4p this week prediction?

You're over ramping, it's not helpful

You keep saying this Coco, over and over again, but it makes no sense. There is nothing to be gained in this market by pumping up Itumbula as a prospect until they confirm that they can move on to drill it in this programme. The objective is to prove a discovery at Tai, and effectively de-risk the whole Rukwa basin, then capitalise on the secondary prospect on the back of that knowledge. You're wasting the leverage if you pump it from this low price, you want to pump it starting from the highest base price you can get from Tai. Anyone can look up the asset potential of Itumbula in company publications if they want to, along with other licenced Rukwa prospects.

That's nonsense Pleb, the support is 5.8p as anyone can see on the chart

I presume the reason for drilling on the other side of the fault is partly to maximise access to the assumed trap so there might be fewer shallow seeps. They will be logging as they go for sure, so look out for smiley faces in the next Geolog crew photo showing off their portable mass spectrometer ;-)