Member Info for Blubay

Everyone knows there will be helium shows on the way down, at different target levels, because they are drilling in the same structure where they found them before. This isn’t a wildcat exploration drill. When they reach the bottom they can RNS successful drill to TD and specify whether the gas shows align with their geological targets, and the logged concentrations. That’s a perfectly normal approach to RNS for a drill. No-one’s expecting a yippee RNS half way down.

Yes, good project management and news management under current administration. I much prefer this approach than Noble talking about 100% success rates but not getting to their first spud yet.

Did you notice the involuntary cheeky grin when he mentioned “that all important helium reading whilst we’re drilling”?

Some good clues to progress in there…

https://twitter.com/Heliumone1/status/1714560068207722938

Ah OK, they won…

Why would Tanzania pay out compensation before the verdict of the WTA appeals tribunal?

“The claimants are awaiting a decision from ICSID on compensation for the expropriation of the Ntaka Hill nickel project. If the arbitral tribunal rules in favour of the claimants and determines that compensation for the loss of the asset is due, then we will seek to recover that amount from Tanzania.”

Until they get their drill in the ground the congratulations remain premature.

Maybe they’ve agreed to joint venture on the 2D seismic data covering their prospect licence areas.

Looks like an MoU to smooth out any difficulties arising from the licensing overlaps. It will be non committal on any actual drill, just ensuring channels are open to resolve any conflicts of interest. No doubt LB has more urgent matters to attend to on-site at Tai C

Unfortunately yes LW, AIM companies operate in a differing ecosystem, in which they depend heavily on their NOMADs and brokers (book builders), who due to their proximity may sometimes leak like a sieve (and HE1 have the same investment bank operating in both roles). AIM companies have to seek regulatory advice/approval prior to fundraising plans or market announcements. And with the best will in the world, it’s also not unusual for an advisor in one arm of an investment bank to have lunch with a trader in another arm.

You’re confusing mud logging with wire line logging. Geolog are providing continuous mud logging and can also test any gas shows using a mobile spectrometer. This would give an indication of target levels and concentrations. After completing the well drilling, Baker Hughes will complete the wire logging, plus any samples taken will then be sent for independent lab analysis.

But why would they ‘abandon’ this well when they’ve drilled it ready for appraisal and possible production (rather than as an exploration well like Tai A)? They’re not planning to re-drill it. Wouldn’t they simply maintain the existing well head pressure control, pending proposed phase 2 appraisal and production casing in early 2024? Maybe I missed something.

“ This drill is to the highest standards, as if they were conducting an appraisal drill.”

They are drilling an appraisal well, let’s hope their assumption is correct.

“ The rig is needed for wirelining”

Sorry, yes I was getting ahead of myself. I’d hope the RNS would take us up to the well being clear for wire lining, prior to a full rig down for mobilisation (but they will be moving kit up the road in prep).

If all goes to plan then Monday would be a good possibility. It really depends how much work they want to complete before making announcement to the market. If they can reach TD, clean up, get the drill out and review the mudlogging data that would make for a more complete announcement. Job done, as planned, positive gas signals at target levels, rig now packing up for mobilisation to Itumbula. As LB said, ""We very much look forward to drilling ahead into our target reservoirs at Tai-3 over the coming days and to evaluate the well, prior to rigging down and moving the rig to our next location at Itumbula." I'd hope to see some preliminary evaluation in the RNS, and happy to wait for that. An RNS that simply announced TD would beg too many unanswered questions in such a nervous market about why they hadn't mentioned this, that or the other etc.

Although it's also likely we'd see a bit of price consolidation and possibly decay in the absence of further news until we get close to TD news. Unlikely to get the RNS this week. Let's see what hints we get on Twitter in the meantime. Hopefully there will be some further anticipatory squeeze on price before the weekend.

There are far too many ifs to speculate in that way. It’s a small exploration company that has no income. They would need money to survive next year, to go to the next stage of appraisal, to drill other wells, to go into production. They could sell the discovery, or develop a joint venture with a production company, they could borrow debt against the asset, they could raise capital through new share issues, they could do any combination of these things. If they wanted to follow the outline development concept they would need to raise more money than their current mcap. Without knowing the number of future shares in issue and the forward price/earnings it’s simply impossible to make estimates like that. For the moment it’s still a short term horizon but yes, a proven commercial discovery should be transformational to the SP in that frame. I think £1 is a long way off.

£100k

If you read the RNS it says they'll clean up and work on pump installations 'during October' and update accordingly, it's only mid October, no reason there should be anything wrong at this point.

Nothing strange at all, completely normal for SP to fade in longer periods between news. No-one's expecting news until towards the end of the month so there's unlikely to be much price action other than speculation before next week.