Member Info for Blubay

Typical well drilling/casing dimensions... https://wiki.aapg.org/images/f/f1/M91Ch2FG6.JPG

Great background work as always Skittish. Certainly seems a plausible explanation, mutual benefit etc. I read the government agreement just as an MoU establishing ground rules for resolving competing interests/conflict in any overlapping claims arising between oil/gas licences and helium licences (dished out by different points in the same ministry). The connection between HE1 and Pulsar is worth noting for sure, most of the helium exploration companies in the region seem to be incestuously interrelated now. Definitely would make sense to share seismic where appropriate, although potentially commercially sensitive/proprietary information prior to analysis and publication. HE1 are openly collaborating with the national/ministry survey department and the university anyway, so there may be some reciprocal from that behind the scenes. Eyasi (3 licences) and Balangida (1 licence) have bumped up the prospect list since LB took over, and the fundraise rationale also included "Additional license opportunities". Slide 17 of the September investor presentation highlighted the Q4 2022 regional gravity-magnetic study for this region (Getech) with the observation that "Technical team currently integrating the results of this work to high rank prospective areas for a future exploration programme", and nearing completion of ESIA application for 'future seismic acquisition'.

LW, I'm well aware of what goes on but I also concur with others that HE1 have chosen to play a very straight bat on this project and I expect them to continue with that approach to the market. No guarantees of course. My working assumption is that leaks on financing have different mechanisms to leaks on operations, because unfortunately that's just how it is when you are dependent on NOMADs/brokers. HE1 has shown a very tight ship on all operations that are within management control (e.g. the rig purchase, which was masterful). They have also shown good sense in choosing to start and wrap up key operations at weekends, very possibly to minimise risk of leaks to market. I've been impressed with the new regime so far, although I retain some doubts about their brokers (but Sarah knows that game well and it's very handy to have a former NOMAD on the board).

"there is also the question of when they will want to release those results"

Given AIM Rule 11, I really can't see them waiting until they have results from Itumbula to confirm results from Tai3 (although it's possible).

"An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:

— its financial condition;

— its sphere of activity;

— the performance of its business; or

— its expectation of its performance."

I'd agree with that assessment. I think the company have tried hard to play this project with a very straight bat as a flagship drill because they need to sell not only the prospect (hopefully proven reserves) but also the corporate transformation in their competence to deliver similar business in East Africa in the future. We already know from Tai1 that there is a working multi-level helium system at Rukwa. We already know the company believe they made a discovery then (but couldn't book the value of the asset without being able to verify proof of reserves). If we get news of successfully reaching TD, with multiple gas shows evidencing support for the geological model, then that will be great news. But really, it only confirms what we already know. The big news would be confirming they have a clean well bore all the way down to basement, sufficient to allow successful wire lining to all targets (and subsequent appraisal). That would be the game changer in terms of the engineering risk (because that's where they failed last time). That ought to merit some speculation on the SP. But we still have to wait for the wire lining and sampling to know if they can book a proven reserve, We might not know that before they rig up at Itumbula.

Https://total-market-solutions.com/2021/09/helium-one-sept-2021/

Very unlikely to Tweet over the weekend, they haven’t done before.

I wouldn’t pre-judge anything at this stage, it’ll come when it comes

I think it’s more complicated than that. There is just a massive restraint on risk money in the market at the moment. Investors want certainty rather than probability because they can get some zero risk return on government bonds for now. News at this stage will not be conclusive, it will confirm what was confirmed at Tai1, hopefully with gas shows at the geological target levels and in good concentrations. That will be a massive confirmation with huge advantages over Tae1 for the next step, but it won’t confirm commercial discovery (proven reserves). Some investors will wait that out, some will take the considerable de-risking that’s been achieved this week.

Think you’re behind the news curve alligator, the company is supplying all the jigsaw pieces, you just need to put them together.

As gogs helpfully pointed out, (a) they’ve achieved TD, or will do today, as they have the reamer and casing tools lined up ready to go, (b) they wouldn’t be now casing out the 8.5” section to an appraisal and production spec if they weren’t optimistic about what they’ve monitored on the way down.

Also just to second the motion of confidence in concluding what has been a really professional showcase drill. Should go a long way to raising their profile as a reliable drill management outfit if they want to lease that rig out on government contracts or to Noble et el.

The development plan is outlined in the most recent investor presentation on the company website.

Yes, that’s my assumption, there or thereabouts, prepping for clean up.

You’ve just had a Tweet showing drilling operations in progress. What would be the bad news?

Sunrise, just reassuring anyone looking for an early RNS that they’re still drilling as planned.

10% spread

Should be some interesting trading on a few shares

Good luck closing that short before the weekend ;-)

That £20k buy was listed as a sell for same reason.