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Trades at 5.9486p marked as ‘sell’ seem pretty unlikely when the mid price was 5.95p

Very hard to guess what’s a buy or sell when they’re so close to the mid price, across a range of MMs with different spreads.

Https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/060115/what-difference-between-proven-and-probable-reserves-oil-and-gas-sector.asp

Proven reserves (P) require a reasonable certainty that 90% of the resource can be recovered by economically profitable means.

At least it wasn’t Friday afternoon 🤣

They are working to O&G protocols, where there are rules about what they can and can’t count. They are looking to move from a risked estimation of unproven (U) prospects, to one of proven reserves (R), then to production (P). So far, they’ve been drilling on basis of a 2U prospect, albeit with a lot of additional de-risking knowledge from exploration drilling and seismic, but short of the verification they need to book is as a 2R discovery. They believe they have that discovery, which is why they’ve drilled this well in the same place to a higher spec that can go to commercial appraisal and, possibly, production without re-drilling. They already have evidence of a working helium system. There is still a risk that the gas can’t be easily extracted but we’re one step closer to finding out.

The original plan was for two weeks drilling with continuous mud logging analysis, followed by two weeks for wire lining, sampling and lab tests. If the first part is successfully completed this weekend then another two weeks or so for confirmation of lab results.

Please tell me you haven’t bought NHE though, because that would seem much more risky, company debut drill on an untested prospect, with a track record of over inflated claims to raise funds and a current technical fault not yet resolved. Also targeting shallow lake bed reservoirs that HE1 proved could not be extracted from sands at that depth at Tai1 and 2. Hopefully, it’s a different story for NHE at a slightly different location, but you’d have to be nervous for them.

…although to be fair, they were only expecting repair certification by Drillmec yesterday morning, before installing the mast and assembling remaining rig equipment, then commissioning and acceptance testing, then spud. So, weekend seems more likely.

You would have to assume there’s a further snag at this point

“However, once results are out, then of course my finger will be on the trigger next week”

What news next week would trigger you to buy? On the basis that they teach TD and have gas shows in mud logs at target depths? Is that sufficient? Or are you waiting the further two weeks for wire line logging and lab testing of gas samples? TD and gas show results next week isn’t telling you anything we didn’t already know from Tai1, other than they now have an appraisal and possible production hole successfully drilled into that geological system. The game changer is whether they can free flow gas from commercially extractable reservoirs. Not sure you’re going to get that news next week.

Hard to say, with the price action yesterday it was a bit difficult to separate buys from sells among different MMs.

There haven’t been daily Tweets, there were Tweets Monday and Wednesday.

Yes, market is heavily risk-off at the moment, so risky shares like this or AIM in general are lacking risk takers. But there is a lot of side money around, looking for a better return. If HE1 can pivot this towards lower risk on a proven discovery then money will flow in rapidly.

But we’ve had a share dilution since then, and as everyone is expecting helium shows anyway if will probably take verified results to really move the price

Let’s guess Friday morning for drill completion, taking no risks on the drill pressure, watch out for Tweet clues. RNS next week.

Mmm, looked like they were gathering more shares than reported at close today. I haven’t done the maths but will be interesting to see if more trades appear in the morning.

If there were a significant problem here the SP would be dropping fast, it’s more likely just fading due to lack of news interest, but we’re not really expecting an update for a week or so yet. We know the oil is there and more than expected. We know they’re already pumping to clean the well. It’s really a question of unknown flow rate, how much they can increase that, and when. On the negative side, everyone is getting out of risk stocks just now. On the plus side, it might not be as much of a risk stock for much longer.

Hopefully we’ll see buying into the close at placing price again today but with a slower build less momentum for selling. Not expecting an announcement before Monday though.

Surely LW you wouldn’t want any of those eureka announcements before results because the investment value of your entry point depends on the price staying below expectation value until then. Buying in directly on results also seems risky to me, as presumably that is the optimum moment for a big raise and dilution to fund the phase 2 campaign planned for early 2024.