Member Info for Block16legend

We have signs of, as Ian Holloway would say, bouncebackability.

GLA

The FCA, in reality, live in a world of red tape and are more reactive than proactive.

A 6 month investigaton will be proceeded by an announcement that they plan to hold and investigation, and how they plan to conduct it.

They’ll then interview brokers, MM’s and review data, which they have zero understanding of (no disrespect to the fine people at the FCA, but generally they’re not from a financial background) and interpret the data how they see it.

Working with an industry that’s been involved (and still is) with FCA investigations (for the sale of add on insurance products), I can say first hand, that something like this will end up so far in the long grass, it won’t ever see a result.

Disappointing that the regulators are so reactive rather than proactive, but we can’t do much about it. Roll on the H1 and pass the shorter a petrol can and a lighter.

Option 1 is probably the winner; the FCA talk a great game about protecting consumers, but more often than not close the gate once the horse is in the next field. any investigation will take 6-9 months as an absolute minimum, and this shorter will be down the road in less than a month, so is pointless. Take it on the chin, wait for the H1 results and watch the shorter get burned.

Raising funds for it would be a good indication.

It’s like waiting for that Tracey Island on Christmas morning, you hope it’s a done deal, just need the big man to deliver it. In this case FM has hinted, but we need to wait and see.

in the event of it being agreed and subject to an agreed forward completion date, would we still need an RNS; or only once it's completed?

Not that I have vast experience in these things, but a number of PLC businesses agree a purchase/sale of an entity on an agreed date, but don't release the RNS until the agreed date.

As with all things, timing is everything.

Confirming the buyout of Sojitz before the H1 figures are released would be spectacular for the share price. We can only live in hope

if we're making a cash + share offer to Sojitz, would the lower share price at the moment be beneficial or a hinderance to us striking a deal?

any chance of some good news this week, turn this tide and get the good ship BMN back in the Blue?

Great post coffeecups; every business suffers from growing pains, and it sounds like BMN have identified an issue with their ‘point and go’ approach, on the basis that the work force drifted off the set path and we’ve suffered short term pain as a result. If we are back on track and are able to remove the bottlenecks, we should be in a good place. However, I temper this positivity with the prospect of Brits coming on stream sooner rather than later. If we are spread thinly, unless we resource these specialist areas properly, we could continue to have to nudge the horse back on to the right track. Which could ultimately be costly

Would a lower share price be a hinderance or a positive as we negotiate any Sojitz buy out? If FM and the BOD agreed some form of cash + shares deal, would it not appeal to Sojitz BOD to take shares at the lower price, considering the potential of this ‘cash elephant’’? We’re seeing a retrace of 25%, if anything, does this not affirm the potential share price/profit opportunity for Sojitz. Could be wrong..

Could we be coming to the end of the warrants that are being exercised; would be great to have a couple of blue days going into the end of the month

Sounds like he’s been spinning the JM Wheel of fortune to find a SP..

JM revising the target on the 13th, then lowering it on the 23rd doesn’t make sense. Intact, it does, but just highlights the point that someone made weeks ago that brokers aren’t really that clued up in the first place. Watch them change it again on the back of positive RNS... 3 changes in less than 1 month anyone?

Thanks for such great detail BBN, piecing together all of the jigsaw only highlights the true potential of BMN. Even at 70% of Vametco, we have a significant profit centre. Thanks again, GLA

Alfa, do you think we would have fixed our retail prices subject to taking an agreed volume of product for a given period of time? Favourable terms for 3/6/9/12 months for example?

Safe to say that unless the a**e fell out of the market, we’re going to average $75-78 per kg for the year, combine that with the points made by Nick and others regarding Brits and Mokopane potentially coming on sooner rather than later, plus the Sojitz buy out, it’s all very exciting. As I have mentioned previously, I’m a real novice with these things and do appreciate being pointed in the right direction when I may be demonstrating my inexperience. GLA, really looking forward to an exciting H2 and beyond.

Hi all, In recognition of bulk / forward orders, what level of discount would we expect (if any) to be offered? Would it be a fixed or contracted price for a given period? I assume that as with most things, discount is offered for a forward ordering. (airlines and fuel costs for example)

Even a $10 increase in the average price will be massive. As already identified over the last week, mining is never an easy operation, but if FM and the BOD have settled any workforce and community unrest and we are confident it won’t contjnue into H2, we should be in a good place, and targets achieved.

But, in defence of all theories expressed on here, is there any potential that we could have stock piled product? We could, in theory have sold (or will sell) a load of our stockpile, generating higher sales than product produced. Or is this not possible, bordering fraud and false accounting?

Might be wrong here, again, it’s quite possible as I’m a novice at these things. ZAR 521,000,000 / 18.3 = £28,469,945 £28,469,945 - 59.1% = £16,825,737 So taking the suggested 20% taxes and costs, we’re looking at £13,460,589 profit for BMN for H1. I’m going to risk being called a troll here, but on an annualised basis, we’re going to generate circa £30m (allowing for increased production in H2). Let’s not get away from the facts that these figures are good, and better than h1 17, and we are making good money. If I’m wrong with the calculations, I’m sorry but can only calculate on how I see it logically. Happy to be corrected though if I’m shooting in the dark and inadvertently blown my own feet off.