Member Info for bistolover

easy answer. when Darby goes and a new CEO comes in and puts the company publically up for sale

so if good news expected and the share price being killed by greedy market makers trying to accumulate stocks at a lower price by breaking stop losses. private investors can just buy at the killed price. In November just before half year interim results the best price was near market close day before the results.

would not rule out a profit warning, we normally do not get through 2 consecutive quarter without a disaster from the CEO. Remember his middle name is "Always jam tomorrow, but never when tomorrow becomes today" Over a week left and the brokers are already destroying the share price.

about time, just hope these get listings in shops https://bakeryinfo.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/18945/Mr_Kipling_launches_reduced-sugar_cake_slices.html

AndAnotherThing that is good response to the complete novice on this board. It is the key numbers that will matter to understand impact on premier's 49% holding, so far these have not been shared, especially the hovis ebitda for year ending tomorrow 31/12/2017, which is key to the valuation of hovis. text from hovis 2016 year end statement: Bread volumes are down 9% year on year due to reduced volumes and cessation of trade with certain customers. During the year the company invested significantly in product quality resulting in an increase in the volumes in the second half of the year.

as I had predicted, get ready for surprises on hovis on the upside in the new year. happy new year to all. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/28/bread-sales-rise-first-time-three-years-brits-ditch-cafes-home/ Analysts at Neilsen said Hovis had seen particularly strong growth, with value sales increasing by 10.5 per cent year on year, making it the fastest growing major bread brand in the UK. Hovis has achieved this through introducing innovative new products such as its upmarket "Seed Sensations" loaf, which lends itself to artisan-style brunches. New half loaves and low carbohydrate versions of traditional loaves have also proved popular. Sara Green, head of insight at Hovis, said: “The latest data clearly demonstrates that the British public is falling back in love with bread. Our new products, such as Half Loaf and Lower Carb, have been launched in direct response to changing consumer needs, meeting the requirements of smaller households and those seeking to enjoy a balanced and varied diet." The total value of the UK bread and baked goods market is predicted to grow by 7.5 per cent over the next five years to reach £4.4 billion in 2022.

happy xmas from me as well ! Also hoping for a prosperous year for all the small shareholders

with all respect, you are just re-echoing the ceo's crap to show everyone that all the improvements are due to his magic formula. Reality is Premier is consistently shown to be only a quarterly result away from the next disaster. He has made good use of trends such as weather to show improvements which get untangled within months. If food prices are 4% higher than a year ago, why is premiers sales flat and profits dropping. In the past supermarkets have tended to make own labels crap so that they can then sell brands at higher margins as customers start believing brands must be better, this went on for years. Lidl and aldi have shown own labels can be quality. Supermarkets are now making quality own labels to compete. This is effecting brands and over the next few quarters this is likely to have an effect on Premier's profits. Darby's only response is to have more discounted promotions which effect profits, premier cannot afford drop in profits due to the heavy financial commitments. Premier's success is not guaranteed, it has lots of risks. I did not see any kipling mince pies in sainsburys this year, last year asda took them of the selves, who will it be next year.

which xmas are you talking with a "could be" label, pick your option. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Any bets (just a guess) you would have said the same on each of the above years, xmas's before the above and xmas's after the above. So far a 100% failure rate to correctly predict the outcome. Even the clock is right 2 times each day, so perhaps one day it may come true, but leave it too long ..

wonder if nissin are regretting the money they wasted buying pfd shares, 62p or something close to it. They could have made better use of this money seeing UK is less than 1% of the total world-wide instant noodle market, according to the bbc article, china being 40%. I suppose in business you loss some and win some, but Darby can't be popular with then giving the holdings in down more than 40% in yens to date.

this looks like a subsidiary company of nissin being floated to raise money for further expansion into china. Looks did not go as well as expected, only raising $121m rather than $200m.Not relevant to the UK. Link below indicating instant noodle sales dropping in china as population is going more up market. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42390058 main link on the ipo for those interested. looks like it is sating business not doing well. https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2017/12/11/Nissin-Foods-raises-HK-951m-in-IPO-and-targets-China-expansion

bimbo looked at hovis a while back and were not interested due to the state of the firm, they are bread makers not cleaners up of failing businesses. you are WRONG about oasis, they are very active, they have the head of European investments on the board and he has been training darby on basics of running a business, but taking a long time as darby is a very very slow learner. Darby has been slowly turned into a honest person, as seen on more recent trading statements, reversed costly actions such as removing sweet treats duplication costs, that has increased cost be £10m a year for last few years and now has been reversed, oasis also got darby to raise more money via bonds to reduce dependency on banks, this did not work as planned as the debt was still too much, again darby's past mistake in increasing debt when it should have been reduced. a word of advise try learning from the experts on the board before making wild claims

bimbo bakeries have now been in the uk for 6 months and must be looking to expand, hovis seems the best target. https://bakeryinfo.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/18022/Bimbo_to_launch_in_UK_for_first_time.html

I am the hovis expert on the board and know a bit about it. Hovis rightdown was just loan notes, so not really down £8m because of the rightdown, the money is already included in the current debt. anything that they can get for hovis will be debt reducing. Value will depend on ebitda for the year ending 31st december 2017, this will be known by end of January 2018 at the latest.

very worrying the discount levels at some of the stores on items that mainly sell this time of the year. Profits are likely to be lower. darby will say the usual such as volumes are up, but he has not realised without profit the shareholders will get wiped out, If darby continues to screw-up then the new chairman will need to give him the p45. Only option is a sale to a better capitalised company who can reduce the debt service costs, and the sooner the better, but darby is the obstacle, so he needs to go and very fast.

Met Office says UK hasn’t seen snow like this since 2013 http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/10/met-office-says-uk-hasnt-seen-snow-like-this-since-2013-7146956 darby took over in 2013 and the performance has been a disaster since. could the shareholders be due a bit of luck as they had in 2013 prior to darby putiing his master plan in place, * increase costs by duplicating structures, now is unwinding them * giving vast some to his friends in the city * many other disasters or will darby find another excuse like the volumes were down due to shoppers could not travel to supermarkets.

glenglen The only reason the share price went up was on the back of the recent offer that was turned down, then a massively made up growth expectation of 4%++ by Darby. At the time I was giving my concerns, but this board was full of Darby lovers who drowned out every-one, I was saying Darby cannot be trusted at the time, but did anyone listen. We then had Naughty Boy KiplingCakes who would not allow anyone to speak. Just look at my messages at the time. If people had listened to me then they could have saved some money

I have not seen anywhere Gores paying anything to Premier, so assume nothing got paid. I believe the reason was likely to be Premier wanted to just get hovis off the books, but this was well before my interest in this company, luckily have not seen a loss in my holding as I was buying most of my holding in the low 30s, then sold a few at higher price as I had no real trust in what Darby was saying, the facts did not add up at the time and I was proved right. There is money to be made in this stock even with a crap CEO.

In the call there was optimism around Hovis, so that may get sold to get debt down. There was also mention of debt being paid down by �25m per year. In 2 years time there is a chance the RCF will not be required as there will be enough cash for the working capital, but who knows with this management. They blew �7m to extend the floating notes bonds by 2 years. So the fixed debt may also be extended in the next year or so. If hovis could get sold for �50m, then get EBITDA back to �147m ( �133m last year), then in theory dividends can be paid in 2 years time, assuming �25m debt payoff per year.

have you got any proper evident to backup your predictions, how would it help nissin if they increased holding or premier's debt. why would oasis wanted to put most of there eggs in one backet. don't talk crap on 57p unless we are first at 45-50p which itself is a long way from where we are.