Member Info for bistolover

Hi HK85

RNS by Brandes on 19/12/2018 Threshold breached 11.92% to 10.08% ( breach date 18/12/2018)

Another RNS on 21/12/2018. Threshold breached 10.08% to 9.93% ( breach date 19/12/2018)

we will only hear next when 9% is breached. This is dumping

Brandes is fast dumping debenhams shares. They have also reduced holdings in CVS Health, Oracle, Amgen, Cemex Loews, list goes on

This shows they are building cash to some reason and is not due to specifically Debenhams itself.

This dumping by Brandes and the fear created by Mike Ashley is the cause for the share price fall.

We still have 6 share tradings days to go before DEB trading update, so anyone's guess where the share price will end up

this is on target to get to 25p before next trading statement. The darby lovers will still be saying 65p by end of january as their messiah has promised it ( just before he leaves with lots of dosh as a extra golden goodbye)

we will then either get the FD or UK MD as new ceo

If a ceo from outside comes in, first we will get a profits warning, so that he can half the share price before his options set in. Just look at what happen to KCOM, new ceo comes in, within weeks, a profit warning and share price down 40%.

Darby is an export in making promises to deliver, but has a 100% track record in not delivery anything promised.

He has a cycle,

1. Make promises
2. Get free shares
3. find an excuse to blame something not in his control
4. let time forget the promise
5. Start from 1

Wonder what excuse he will come in next update given it will be his last update

it will be either the current cfo or the uk md

Looks like mike ashley needs debenhams to make his plans works buy combining HoF with debenhams.

They must be pissed off that they had to pay 30p for the shares, same as for the plebs ( normal employees) in the company. The directors are used to getting them for nothing, then sell off half to cover tax etc.

you are just trying to be a devils advocate, but very unsuccessful one at that.

If debenhams has the leases owned by separate companies then any one of those companies can go for separate cva without financial impact to the parent company.

Once in a cva then the companies lease would be subject to the cva, it would be nothing to do with the parent company.

The write downs would be currently valid as the write-downs are within a separate company which is a going concern, this all changes when a cva is evoked in the separate company.

The write downs are just that i.e a non cash writedown

KPGM would have advised debenhams on how to do this with limited financial impact.

I suspect debenhams does not want to have a bad reputation to call in cva, but will do if company is close to failure. Why go for a cva when this can be done without a cva by talking to landlords, with a final fallback of a cva.

tending to agree with pearls.

I remember a few years ago mike ashley putting some businesses in the US into separate business, then implemented chapter 11 to avoid costs. I would expects this sort of thing from mike ashley, but not from a respected company.

The following article is indicating the leases are held in multiple companies. At this stage debenhams probably want to avoid cva due to the publicity, but will keep it as option if landlords do not play fair.

https://www.companyrescue.co.uk/guides-knowledge/news/debenhams-considering-cva-and-credit-insurance-withdrawn-4187/

snippets from article

The Telegraph reported last night that Debenhams is considering a CVA after bringing in KPMG restructuring team

The retailer’s property leases are held under several companies, which could force it to undertake more than one CVA at the same time.

property leases are held under several companies, so they can have cva for part of the property portfolio or a number of smaller CVAs

how low will this need to go for it to become a good buy. 32p must be on the cards, if ambrosia is given away by darby for £100m i.e make this stock even more of a zombie, then all bets are off for the lowest price.

you only got yourself to blame for bad investment decisions, especially buying at the wrong high price. If you buy at a good price, this is a good investment. just wait for this to become a good buy, else move on.

Good investors had seen long ago the low quality management and have avoided buying at a high price. New assessments will be made once the new ceo is announced, just hope it is not an internal promotion.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-5912863/Carpetright-New-Look-House-Fraser-2018-year-CVA.html

guess this will be a future option for debenhams if it goes into a loss and they can't borrow anymore, currently they are profitable, so current option is to work with landlords to improve stores.

you just don't know how to add up

fair point brag, just hope the board can hold him back else they will be next on oasis list. we just need to get to 1 feb 2019 without more damage

not that one, but more a great investor who spotted early the antics of the value destroying ceo, this was a time long ago when this board was full of darby lovers, he took them on and crushed everyone with his deep insight into how this stock was slowly being turned into a zombie.

Oasis came on board confirmed the ceo has fully turned this into a zombie now and have now removed him, but the ceo can still cause damage in the remaining 2 months, one of them is to flog off cheaply a very profitable ambrosia business. The sale must maintain the same levels of profits before and after, if not then it is not worth selling.

there was a wise person called doom who predicted the zombie nature of this stock whilst a few tried to outlaw him/her. If you followed his advise and bought low and sold in the 40s, then you would be in the money. A zombie stock stays in a range, ticking lower over a number of years.

a good trade is to trade within the range, then slowly lowering the range over time.

pension liabilities will remain with premier foods. It does not take a genius to calculate the numbers i.e reduction of debt cost minus the profit drop, I would say bare minimum would be £170m required. free cash flow would need to be better else the company will become a bigger zombie.

who is bitter, in fact I am up and considerably. will top-up if this goes down, else enjoy the ride up to to mid 40s

If this was a 65p stock as you keep pointing out year after year, why does it end up mid 30s

The market price is the price you get, not a fantasy price you claim.

not a re-moaner, but a shrew investor who will look at all risks, including poor management. You make good points, but currency movement has an effect on share price, in premier's case this multiplies due to the leavarage/zombie status premier is in after 6 years of mismanagement.

just look at year end slides for 2016/17 with title FOREIGN CURRENCY & COMMODITY INFLATION

if we get the same due to the short team fear of no brexit, then this will effect share price to the downside, fixed price contracts etc. The likes of Unilever can fight it out with supermarket, but not zombie premier foods,