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nezlob

it is clear as daylight that the rcf was not cleared on 6 jan 2019, just read the trading statement on 10th jan 2019

We continue to generate cash, with net debt as at 5 January of £286m

they have 200m bonds debt, so were withdrawing 86m on 5th jan 2019. in the full year statement they stated by end of dec the debt would be 200m, so something has gone wrong. Good change they did not sell everthing, so most of the 87m was surplus stock.

A small possibility they cleared the rcf and then borrowed money to buy new winter stock, but doubt it.

my gut feeling is, a rights issue is coming very soon with a cva to get rents down

17th jan 2019 is on the website

http://www.premierfoods.co.uk/investors/financial-calendar

an offer is unlikely until the company has gone through a cva or some other form of cleanup. There are too many baggage for the new owner to make this a business worth buying.

The banks will destroy this business. Every visit to the bank manager or advisers will see fees after fees loaded up to the tune of 10s of millions. Premier foods funding cost 12m for 300m last year and they have a better rating. Debenhams is below junk status now i.e CAA1 this is same as ukraine

with this rating no-ome is going to lend them money without assurances, that is why they had to suspend selling assets as they are needed to negotiate debt renewals.

bond debt is going at 49p in the pound this is bad. There will be hedge funds buying up this and then want to take the company to the cleaners.

Why would SPD pay 15p per share when they can get it without paying anything, if banks decide not to back the company.

The banks are checking the assets and liability to see if the business is worth the outstanding debt, first priority for them is to get back the money owed, even if it means selling everything for the outstanding debt.

beginning to side with the bears on this. Takeover bids will likely come once this is in a cva to remove the baggage.

In the current form this cannot survive until next xmas. Banks are likely to remove lending facilities unless the trading improves. All eyes on the trading statements over the next 9 months.

plus full capital back, so 10% per year, plus 43% in 1 or 2 years

10% return per year if debs does not default

bonds going at 56.77p in the pound. hedge funds must be buying these. so the £200m bonds debt is only worth £113.5m

https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds/debenhams_plcls-notes_201414-21_regs-bond-2021-xs1081972850

if previous xmas trading update was early with Group like-for-like sales as reported down (1.3%)

Well it stands to reason that this years update will not be worse or the same percentage down

https://ir.debenhams.com/calendar/upcoming-events

now officially scheduled for 10th jan 2019

your are right guttedman. my bets are on current uk md.

MKS website hits 31.65m annual sales £10B
DEB website hits 27.22m annual Sales £3B ( UK £2.2B)

Not sure why people were expecting a trading update. There was never one scheduled.

https://ir.debenhams.com/calendar/upcoming-events

If the profits/sales were going to be lower then guided then they would issue a statement asap. I suspect we will see an update prior to the AGM.

can't see an update on the 4th, but can see one on the morning of the agm

only reason for an early update would have been for a profit warning like last year.

wonder if Brandes is still dumping shares. They need to sell 12m shares before another rns.

If this is the case, then this share will fly on decent debenhams trading confirmation. A lot was done to improve performance from last year such as changing 70% of the gifts etc.

RealisticView

you missed the points that were made and you need to read and fully analysis the last financial statement from debenhams..

Only half the suppliers did use credit insurance before it was withdrawn, peak exposure for suppliers is during the xmas period.

Debenhams used RCF facilities to get through this. At the end of December 2018 there is no outstanding RCF loan, only the bonds loan.

There would have been a slight temporary borrowing cost. Debenhams is now through this for this peak season 2018, so is not a problem. see slide 21

https://ir.debenhams.com/static-files/fb8d0de1-556e-41d7-904e-b0b0b417830f

credit insurance is not a risk for this peak trading. Only half the suppliers used credit insurance ( or half the goods supplied by suppliers). Debenhams has used short term funding upto the debt limited to finance this. Most or all of the goods are sold now and debt would be back to £200m i.e. no RCF is used just after peak. see slide 21

https://ir.debenhams.com/static-files/fb8d0de1-556e-41d7-904e-b0b0b417830f

There appears to be a seller who is dumping sufficient shares to meet the buying demand. Wonder if Brandes is still dumping.

There is nothing in the calendar so far, only the agm for 10th jan 2019

https://ir.debenhams.com/calendar/upcoming-events

so could be on friday as last year it happened on 4th jan 2018, but could be another day

with uk population of 65m, that would be approx 1300 average per town. how many stores would be in the smaller towns. get real