Member Info for bistolover

"This will be one of the stars of 2021!!"

more likely stars of 2023 or even 2024

after the HSBC valuation of PFD, see goldman sachs valuation of valeo.
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/capvest-looking-to-sell-valeo-foods-in-1-7bn-deal-599105
At a valuation of €1.7 billion, Valeo will be sold at 25 times its 2019 operating profits

does anyone know the current cash burn for IAG. Can this airline survive until summer without needing more money ? Just increasing debt levels is not sustainable as the debt market will get more expensive more the debt gets.

premier foods was making profits before the pandemic, so no reason why it can't make profit after. What will be different will be a financially stronger group, a lot less outgoings. Pandemic is expected to increase trading profit higher by at least 15m, but there is a bigger gain in 2 years which is lower pension contribution by around 17m.

I would not get too carried away with these trades. In the past big shareholders have transferred shares to banks and then get converted to options, this releases cash, but still allows holding of a shares. My guess is this is Paulson doing this, but time will tell.

seeing why do the restructuring now if looking at dividend next year, they could have done it at the agm after year end, perhaps planning dividends this year. could be announced at xmas trading statement.

are they saying, after this action, in theory the surplus can be paid out as a dividend, the surplus is mostly rhm pension surplus to the best of my understanding, but need to review the balance sheet to fully understand.

trying to understand what does this mean and how does it impact the company's finances

get lots of free cakes at the AGM I have been told

does anyone know what the current IAG daily cash burn is ?

last summer it was reported as around £1m per hour, good to know the current rate to see assess the financial health of the business

If not deal, suspect we follow the market down, but can't see a lot of sellers of pfd stock, a lot will depend on the fall in the pound. in 2016 pound fell 20% caused raw material prices to go up, resulted in a profit warning as it took premier 2 years to put the prices up. i would have thought premier will have been stock piling raw materials. concern is nissin and batchelors pots as these come via lorry from Hungary. My personal feeling is a lot more stocks will be in worst situation, so hoping pfd is defensive play.

restarted with correction

not sure what to say on your method of determining if a stock is fair value or not.
"Even if I take your figure net debt is still around 40% of the current market cap."
so when share price was 18p ( debt over 100% of market) then this must have been a strong sell, if price is £2 (debt less than 20% of market cap) then this must be a strong buy.

saying this, your call on abf was a good call when it was £17 a share, plus you may be right on unilever at £43

fatprofits

not sure what to say on your method of determining if a stock is fair value or not.
"Even if I take your figure net debt is still around 40% of the current market cap."
so when share price was 18p ( market cap over 100% or debt) then this must have been a strong sell, if price is £2 (market cap less than 20% of debt) then this must be a strong buy.

"Premier Foods have the best part of £400 Million in net debt"

Debt is below £345m ( with £37m from hovis sale) and falling daily, with expectation this will be down to around £300m by end of march 2021. this is around 12p per share difference from your incorrect figure.

It will be good to see your calculation of enterprise value so this can be fact checked.

"If vaccines come, pent up demand yes we should be towards £3 in a years time"
a share price of £3 would give a market cap of £15B, £3B more than before the crises. Taking into account the scaring effects, more debt, bean counters at corporates unlikely to approve business travel if the company survived a year without travel. Surely the value of business will be considerably less than before crises.

those who want to sleep at night knowing their money is safe, don't get sucked into this zombie, it will be shareholders and landlords picking up the tab to clear the high debt, will not be management or cinema goers

premier's business model is more proven for post covid trends
- working from home
- online sales of food
- debt heading for 1.5xebitda - small bolt-on acquisitions - new board members skillset
- energetic admin structure to introduce new products made by others eg nissin pots, Cape Herb & Spice, peckish crackers.

debt is super high, this reminds me of the way thomas cook went to the w
all. looking at the recent rns, what worries me most IF i was a shareholder "The New Debt Facility also includes certain financial and operating covenants and entitles the lenders to appoint a board observer", luckily i am not a shareholder.

"Can we hit £1 billon on Tuesday" not with the useless management who just gave away 49% of hovis for peanuts.

second rights issue must be on the cards, perhaps pencilled in for February/march 2021