Member Info for Bismarck

Final buy of the day was 250,000 shares at 9.95p
Not seen trading like this on here for a while, some news certainly appears to have leaked out .......

When I saw the jump I looked for the RNS, but it's not there!

@broomtree
More imported LNG will be needed to replenish European gas reserves this year. Russian pipelines were operating fairly normally for the 1st few months of 2022 until some mysterious explosions. That shortfall will need to be made up and imported LNG will be part of it. I can see healthy (but not daft) long term gas prices returning and being maintained for the foreseeable....

@Broomtree

Natural gas down 14% today will no doubt be responsible for today's drop in SP. I know it's hedged but I'm actually surprised SP has only dropped to £1

Perhaps just a case of Indians having a relaxed approach towards timekeeping and punctuality?

"Agree that an ISA is the best place to hold them due to tax implications, provided there is an attractive entrant."

I assume you meant SIPP?

Does anyone know the reason for the recent weakness in SP?

As far as I'm aware there's been no negative news. It's all pretty low volume dealing at the moment so maybe just someone or a number of people wanting to exit while there is little interest from buyers. Maybe an opportunity to top up, it has to bottom out somewhere?

What's changed fundamentally since it peaked in the 40's Feb last year?

Pleased to see the SP has currently only dropped by half the 3.65p divi value. That's definitely a positive!

Stocko have the following -

EV £121.1m
2022 NP -$40M
2023 NP -$4M

I was wondering that myself. Placings are normally offered at a discount to SP are they not?

Even without shale this still looks incredibly undervalued to me.

According to Stocko -

Price to book value 0.26
2019 net profit $8.4M USD
2020 net profit $8.95M USD
Obviously we know what happened to gas demand in India after that.

Forecast NP of $8.2M for 2023 and $12.3M for 2024, although they don't publish forecast revenue or operating profit against those so I'm not sure how those numbers are derived and take them with a pinch of salt.

If they can get to $11-$12M USD NP within a couple of years that's a P/E of 2 at our present MCap!

Actually ICI 4 has increased, now back up to $73.42

Thanks for your input Troy

Shame the CEO's ambitions plans have done little to lift the SP thus far. As you say, a lot of patience is required

The plans are very ambitions indeed for a company of £20M market cap, I do hope they can pull it off -

"GEECL is also carrying out a shale gas exploration program at Raniganj, Modi said, adding that the initial plan envisaged drilling core wells to map out the geology.

"We'll do a few of those tests with 10 odd million dollars or so of spending to get an idea of what kind of prospects are out there," Modi said.

"After that, we will do a pilot well, drilling and then get into development. If that happens, as much as $2 billion go into it," he said."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/23/energy-battle-europe-russia-international-energy-agency

"However, Russian gas supplies were flowing at normal rates through pipelines for the first half of last year, meaning efforts to fill storage facilities during 2023 will be more heavily reliant on liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped to Europe from around the world."

The "falling off cliff" price drops we've seen in gas and Newcastle this year now seem to be leveling off, at least for the time being. We've seen a meaningful drop in ICI 4 too but not to the same extent. Hopefully that's got another $10 or more to fall before that levels off. Does anyone know what's happening with Indian domestic coal prices?

I think we should get an RNS this week. Let's hope it is good!

I'd be surprised if we get much interesting news until stoping is underway. Q2 results, which we can expect to be released mid to late July should hopefully show good production results from May's stoping.

That's when I hope to see some some real improvement in the SP. If much upward movement comes before I'll be only too pleased!

Those who were involved with DEC (DGOC) during the Covid gas price slump will remember that while their non-hedged peers were in financial distress, DEC had no such problems and were busy picking up their assets at rock bottom prices.

There will obviously be a point where gas prices level out. We know that depressed prices result in companies ceasing to invest in developing new wells or infrastructure, which in turn reduces supply and ultimately causes prices to rise again, exactly what happened during and after Covid. So while the price slump will inevitably have an adverse effect on next years hedged prices, it may also present DEC with some incredible buying opportunities.

ICI 4 now down from $73.24 to $69.73, another 5% drop over the course of a week.

https://www.jwcindonesia.com/price-index

This is from my stocko page for TTM £M

Cash 35.0
Working cap 21.1
Net debt 5.33
Net fixed assets 187
Book value 181
Ave shares 403
Book value PS 45.1p

2022 Book value PS was 42.2p