Member Info for Bismarck

SP is down 20% over the past month. I certainly don't think the company is now worth 20% less because they had some production issues in Q1 and the Bilboes oxide project is not turning a profit. None of this will be relevant when Bilboes is in full production and the company is churning out 200,000 oz +

Opportunity for me to top up....

Considering what they've achieved in the past six months - closing the Bilboes deal, acquiring Motapa...plus the increase in POG, I'm surprised the SP has not performed better.

Still, I'm planning to hold, and increase my holdings in the dips. This will surely re-rate as Bilboes goes online and their total annual production ramps up from 80,000 to >200,000 oz. A fair while to wait maybe, I don't think a timeline has been put on Bilboes yet but I'm sure it will be announced fairly soon as I think they're due to complete the feasibility study anytime now?

30% by default, 15% with W-8BEN, 0% in SIPP

Ball park I think they need to produce about 10,000 OZ/year to break even at current POG

That's only 42% of their target production rate of 23,500 OZ. Surely it cannot be that hard to achieve 50% of target and make this a viable business at this gold price?

I do hope so, but let's see. I never count chickens anymore.......

So often I look at my portfolio and think...this one can really only go up.... this one should be a 2 bagger within 12 months etc etc, only to see an overall loss!

With Hum it was usually rain at Yanfoliia that used to put a dampener on things and push the AISC above the POG!

Kouroussa has only just entered the commissioning phase so still some way to go yet, but so far so good....

I first invested here almost exactly 2 years ago at around 23p, after I thought we'd already reached the floor and were on the up, LOL.

Bailed out a year later at 13p, nursing about a £25K loss if my memory serves me well.

Went back in quite heavily with 1/2 million shares at about 8p in August 22, only to see it drop again, to the 5's...oh bugger I thought!

I've taken some profits on the way back up, but now at almost 20p I have more than reversed my precious losses.

There must be less eventful way to make money on the stock market!

I think the point, from the extract from RNS below, is that if grade or quantity of ore mined/processed/sold drops much below what's factored into the mine plan they may be unable to continue as a going concern.

"For the period ended 31 December 2022 the Group recorded a loss of $9.5 million (2021: $5.6 million) and had a working capital deficiency of $4.8 million (2021: $13.0 million). The Group recorded net operating cash outflows of $0.1 million for the financial period (2022: $1.7 million). The cash position of the Company as at 31 March 2023 was £8k.

These conditions indicate a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt over the ability of the consolidated entity to continue as a going concern and therefore its ability to realise its assets and discharge its liabilities in the normal course of business.

The ability of the consolidated entity to continue as a going concern over the long term will remain dependent on the quantity and grade of ore mined and processed being within a reasonable tolerance of the forecast quantity and grade and adherence to the planned product shipment schedule."

It was in the RNS of 21 Apr

Working Capital

For the period ended 31 December 2022 the Group recorded a loss of $9.5 million (2021: $5.6 million) and had a working capital deficiency of $4.8 million (2021: $13.0 million). The Group recorded net operating cash outflows of $0.1 million for the financial period (2022: $1.7 million). The cash position of the Company as at 31 March 2023 was £8k.

The Mason's have bought 6.66m shares at 15p, total value £1m. What does that suggest?

Thanks for clarifying Florence, and no need to apologise. I've been looking at the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) and I can see it's now back to normal levels, currently 1576, having peaked at 5500 in October 21.

Certainly a positive market update from OPG would be reassuring and might halt or reverse this fall in SP from recent highs.

Florence, I understand that elevated shipping costs would impact the overall cost of importing coal, but since it's normally transported in bulk carriers can you explain how shipping container costs affect OPG?

I did some sums earlier. I'm going from memory a bit as my notes are at work.

With subscription and open share offer, if fully subscribed the additional shares issued will be 20% of the existing number of shares issued so 100%/120% = 0.83, so existing shares are devalued by 17%. This will provide the company with £2m gross, less costs.

With the open offer you have a chance to reduce dilution by selling shares at 20p (current SP) then buying back at 15p
so for 100 shares you are offered 15 open offer shares for £2.25. To buy these you need to sell 11 shares at 20p (with rounding) so you gain 4 shares so a 4% increase.

Apply a factor of 0.83 to your 104 shares. This gives you a value of 86.3

So, the raise will dilute your holding by 14% if you participate or 17% if you don't.

It's hardly a desirable situation to be in by any means, but the company will cease to trade without the raise, and better to lose 14% than 17%.

Do you mean £50 not £59? There's quite a difference? My only source is the JWC website.

Yes got mine, no brainier really, sell 10000 or whatever @ 20p then buy 13,333 @ 15P for the same cost

Bubba, I'm slightly confused about ICI 4 prices

Futures are shown here, https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ICKJ23/futures-prices which shows April, May and June 23 at $85.2, so given that we are in April that's presumably current price, which is £70?

But this site shows this weeks (or last weeks) price at $71 or £59 https://www.jwcindonesia.com/price-index

Are you able to explain please?

Peleliu, I agree with JMUK26. CMCL has a fantastic track record of achieving and often exceeding guidance and they've stated that they have resolved the issues and the overall guidance for the year still stands. I've no reason to doubt them.
If you've ever owned HUM you'll know what loss of confidence in a miner's ability to forecast is about!

Just a reminder this chat board will almost certainly be removed after delisting so I've reposted my previous suggestion below -

There is another board on this site we can use https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/
It only sees a couple of new threads a month so we can start one called GEEC and just reply to it.

With SP currently sitting at around 6% of book price I'll take my chances delisted. My hope being that they'll eventually (hopefully within 5 years) pay a decent divi, in which case I'll just hold onto them indefinitely.

I thought the RNS was encouraging in that they seem to be emphasising that nothing will change other than the shares will no longer be traded on an exchange. They have said the reason for the delisting is that the level of trading does not justify the ongoing cost of remaining listed. If this really is the only reason and everything else continues as normal then there are some bargain 5p shares to be had.

While oil is currently up 6%, gas is down 5%!