Member Info for Bismarck

The recent SP certainly has been completely disconnected from the asset value. Based on Stocko's numbers book value is currently 57p/share. Even with a 50% discount applied that's still significantly higher than where we have been for many months. With the planned move into shale you'd certainly expect the long term book value per share to increase, even after factoring in dilution. If the company succeeds in this then within 3 to 5 years I'd expect a divi of at least 5% of book price PS, hopefully a fair bit more.

I've not heard back from either of my SIPP platforms yet but so far I've found the following -

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-10648215/What-happens-delisted-shares.html

"Investment platform AJ Bell confirmed it will send a message to shareholders if a company is delisted.

'This message will have a brief summary of what has happened and a link to the full statement from the company so customers are up to date with any proceedings. When we receive more information from the delisted firm, we pass this straight onto the customer, including any voting options that might be available.

'The shares will remain in the customer's portfolio online with a nil value until the delisted company comes to a final decision.'

And from Interactive Investor -

https://www.ii.co.uk/help/trading/useful-information/defunct-shares

"When a company ceases to function, its shares are delisted from the exchange they were traded on. We will notify you if any of your shares are delisted via a corporate action notification.

If the company issues share certificates because of the delisting, we will endeavour to reregister these in your name. If share certificates are not issued, or reregistration is not possible, the unlisted shares will stay on your online account."

Presumably they would be re-registered in my name as the company would not be defunct. Without a share certificate I guess it would be impossible to resell them in the future?

Plenty of juniors are well up today and not all are in production -

Caledonia +15%
Black Dragon +10%
Condor +7%
Hummingbird +11%

Come on Scotgold, you can do way better than 0% !

Indeed, including a £48K buy at £13.25
Other juniors up too on the rising POG but I've seen no others rise by 16%

My thoughts are that this is an almighty kick in the teeth. I'm particularly frustrated because I've topped up recently.

"The Company has decided to request the voluntary Cancellation of Listing as the volume of trading of the GDRs on the LSE is negligible and does not justify the costs related to such listing and trading."

That may be true, but had the company made more of an effort in investor relations perhaps there might have been some interest in the security? I think this is part of a different strategy.

I feel loathed to sell at the current price so would favour hanging onto the shares because I don't think the fundamentals of the business model have changed. However it may be quite complex for me to keep hold of them as they are held in SIPP accounts. I've emailed both platforms concerned to ask what my options are, other than to sell at the current depressed price.

Another week goes by, still no trading update.
What week will it be released?

Week 12: 20 March to 26 March 2023
Week 13: 27 March to 2 April 2023
Week 14: 3 April to 9 April 2023
Week 15: 10 April to 16 April 2023
Week 16: 17 April to 23 April 2023
Week 17: 24 April to 30 April 2023

I'm going to guess week 13 as they may want to delay as long as possible but feel that it must be done within Q1

I hope you're right.

One is in production but unprofitable,
Price to book value 0.37
Mcap 44m

One is basically some land ready to start building a mine on.
Price to book value 0.94
Mcap 43m

So the smart money would go on the one that's in production, right?
But what if the one already in production had disappointed time and time again.....for whatever reason
And the one nowhere near production received serious interest from potential buyers with stacks of cash and a proven track record in mining?

ICI 4 at $73.84 now, slightly up on last week so it's not following the same decline rate as Newcastle.
I guess we may have a little longer to wait for this to become a 2 bagger or 3 bagger from here.

FTSE all share down 3.6% today. Is today's drop in DEC unexpected?
Yes DEC is well down past 6 months, but today is very fractionally up VS wider market.

I've got S & P up 0.14% and Nasdaq up 0.8% right now so I wouldn't say flying.

Was searching for an update on how many CBM wells they now have and came across this

Rating upgraded to 'CRISIL BBB+/ Stable'

https://www.crisil.com/mnt/winshare/Ratings/RatingList/RatingDocs/GreatEasternEnergyCorporationLimited_August%2030,%202022_RR_297936.html

Correction, I bought 43K not 47K today

I can see the 75.5K and 16K trades @ 12.1p
I sold a little elsewhere today and topped up 47K @ 12.7p to bring my average down below 20p now
I guess someone or some people need to sell when there is no interest from buyers.
Even if GEEC cannot find a partner of some kind to fund large scale shale exploration/production they've still got plenty more CBM wells to drill have they not ?

From their website, not sure how up to date the well numbers are -

"GEECL's Raniganj (South) block licence area covers 210 sq. km (52,500 acres). We will drill 300 wells in the contracted area. A 5-well cluster pattern will be followed for drilling the wells. The wells are connected by an internal MDPE pipeline network going into our Gas Gathering Station and then feeding the gas into our dedicated external steel pipeline network.

Area of 210 sq. km.
10.62 TCF of Original-Gas-in-Place
156 wells drilled
A further 144 wells planned to be drilled
56 deviated wells have been successfully drilled
Dedicated pipeline of 77.62 km running through the heart of the Asansol-Durgapur industrial belt"

The next quarterly update (Q1 23) is unlikely to be uplifting in terms of revenue. We'll not be stoping until May (or possibly late April if they are ahead of schedule). It's Q2 update that will be more interesting.

With hindsight I'd have sold out at £1.40 to buy back in at <£1. But equally one could sell out at £1.40 only to see it reach £1.80

Naturally I'd prefer the SP to be £1.40 than £1, but as a long term holder with no intention to sell the sustainability of the divi is more important than the SP.

Based on your growth numbers the 5 year gain using the calculator increases to 140% (mine being 99% gain without factoring in any growth)

But if there is dilution to pay for acquisitions then the mcap should theoretically rise by the value of the raise, the SP be relatively unaffected and FCF to pay the divis also increase proportionately to the value of the acquisition, or greater than that if it was a really good deal?

PS - Based on a SIPP with 0% WHT

I've just done a simulation on excel.
Starting at £1 SP with a quarterly divi of 3.7p which is roughly what we have now.
Assuming constant SP and constant divi for the next 5 years, with divi reinvested quarterly, at the end of Y5 with compounding you would have achieved a 100% return.
All hypothetical I know, and it assumes a constant SP with all revenue coming just from the divi. You would expect some growth in SP in 5 years if the company continues to perform, so in reality if returns to shareholders can be maintained it should be even better.

Thanks MJ, those figures look encouraging enough to me! Hard to see why this should drop under a quid again for some time.

I don't think you'll know whether topping up was a mistake or not until you see 2024's hedge prices, and what 40% of FCF looks like at those prices.