Member Info for Bismarck

Thanks for the info Troy

I've just read up on the difference between pinksheets and OTCBB https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pinksheets.asp

I agree, it does appear that OTCBB would be easier to trade. My guess (and it's only a guess) is that it may be pinksheets only, otherwise HL would have known and informed you it was both, and what reason would GEEC have to choose both rather than one or the other?

Have you emailed GEEC to request further clarification?

From Stocko I can now only see that 0.41% are owned by Silvercrest Asset Management with 99.59% owned by others. Not sure how up to date that is.

The last RNS concerning share dealing was in Nov 20 and states the following -

"Mr. Yogendra Kr. Modi, Executive Chairman, and Mr. Prashant Modi, Managing Director & CEO, purchased through YKM Holdings International Ltd., 1,200,000 GDRs on 12 November 2020 at a price of 7.55p each in the Company (1 GDR represents 0.5 underlying ordinary share of INR 10 each). Following this purchase, they have a beneficial interest of 64.90% in the Company."

So any further director deals, or significant changes in ownership resulting in thresholds being crossed would be notifiable by RNS. None have been released since.

So who owns the other 35% and why are so few changing hands? Surely not all owned by PI's

Russian pipelines were supplying gas to Europe through Nord Stream until the end of last summer. That helped fill storage facilities with cheap Russian gas ready for last winter. Some still flows through Ukraine but Europe is now buying only a tiny fraction of the gas from Russia that it did last year. This year Europe will need to buy a lot more LNG to make up the defect, much of it supplied by the US. Hard to see the gas price on either side of the pond remaining at these low levels for long.

Good to hear that the placing is going well and there is no shortage of investment to fund Bilboes.

"St Helier, March 31, 2023 - Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc ("Caledonia" or the "Company") announces that, further to its announcements on March 24, 2023 regarding the Fundraise (as defined in the announcements), it has decided to extend the closing of the Zimbabwe Placing (as also defined in the announcements) from 12.00 p.m. on March 31, 2023 by up to a week due to a higher than anticipated level of demand from existing and new Zimbabwean institutional shareholders who wish to participate but require extra time to attend to their own administrative requirements. It is expected that, due to strong demand from existing Zimbabwean institutional shareholders, the Zimbabwe Placing will raise in excess of US$3milllion. A further announcement will be made next week regarding the closing of the Zimbabwe Placing, the funds raised and the shares and Zimbabwe depositary interests to be issued pursuant to the Placing."

Andrew,
I think the insinuation is that the level knowledge you've acquired, apparently within a few weeks is uncanny, so questions are being asked, have you "scoped" this subject previously?

I don't think anyone here has a problem with the raise for growth, it just seemed a little painful at the time because the raise was only for about 6% of mcap, but SP (temporarily) reduced mcap by significantly more than the value of the raise!

No matter, I took advantage and topped up my holding by a little more than the dilution at a good price, just as I did when the Bilboes deal was first announced. The SP has already recovered so I'm pleased.

I look forward to the next significant news

Slight correction. I assume capex may not be included but a % would be allowed for in depreciation? Sorry I'm no accountant.

Andrew, I've no idea why they're not digging up much gold ATM but the mountain has been drilled out to establish the resource. That is a question I'd really would like an answer to.
In terms of the burn rate is it not a simple £15 odd million as my previous f.a.g. packet calc based on 2022 numbers, less any capex like the tailings thickener that may have been paid for in 22? https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SGZ/final-results-bssini24i5br11w.html

Andrew, thanks for your clarification. In my mind there is little doubt that there is plenty of gold in the mountain and someone must capable of extracting it profitably, either Scotgold or another. As my cigarette packet calculation showed they need less than half their 23,000 oz target production rate to break even based on current costs/POG, so assuming NLR and others can find the funds to keep it going, either until a buyer is found or it's profitable under Scotgold, that's got to be their best option?

Maybe I'm naive but I don't see a scenario whereby administration would benefit the BOD (majority shareholders). Mcap is now only £8.3m of which BOD own circa 60%. If this was put into administration the administrator would look for offers to buy the mine as an ongoing concern. I think it's inconceivable that nobody would offer well over the current Mcap for it.
BOD would potentially be bidding against half a dozen interested parties.
This reinforces my view that they are likely to continue to support the mine financially or sell it as an ongoing concern. I don't understand how administration would help them?

I think if it were a UK based company I might snap up a few more to average down, but given that they are half way around the globe and will be subject to less regulation once delisted I think I'll just keep my present holding, moved to a dealing account.

The shares are currently at about 8% of book value. Moving forward I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect an annual divi of 4% of today's book value in the not too distant future, which is currently half the Mcap!
I just wish I was starting from a clean sheet.

I cannot believe that the slang word for cigarette has been edited out by this board's software!

Results published 21 December 2022 showed they had revenue of $18.8m AUD and a loss of $10.8m AUD, so to break even they would have needed to increase revenue to $28.6m AUD or £15.4m GBP. At today's POG that's only 10,000 oz but that's not guaranteed long term.

So moving forward, in the short term they only need to produce 10,000 oz in 2023 to break even based on 2022 costs?

Caledonia mining previously had the mining rights but moved on in 1999 with the collapse of the gold price. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/sep/09/stephenkhan.theobserver
Watching a webinar of their latest results makes me wonder. Apart from, "why the hell did I not back them instead", Is their success due to them passing on the Cononish project for something more fruitful, or would such a competent miner have been successful at Cononish too? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q69mVuWKvo0

If it arrives tomorrow I'll give myself a pat on the back for a correct prediction of week 13!

I subscribed to L2 and past few days whenever I've looked there have been buying opportunities at around 5 and selling opportunities at 4.5. I would have expected some people to be cutting their losses and selling and others to be buying/selling to move out of SIPPs and into dealing accounts. I cannot imagine much is going to happen to move the SP much between now and D Day, unless people expect a flurry of buying by the BOD to snap up cheap shares at the last minute?

I do think that after 13 odd years and an 8 figure sum invested, mainly by BOD, unless they have a plan to exclude PI's and keep all for themselves there is no way they will cut their losses and let this die..... unless they've given up all hope.....

I guess the value of what's in the ground is largely irrelevant if the company are incapable of mining and processing it competently. I keep seeing these AISC figures of £500 odd being thrown about by SG, but it's clear they're not operating at anything remotely close to that.

George,
If they simply delisted there is no obligation for existing shareholders to sell, although many would sell, probably at a further reduced price. Obviously there are limitations in holding delisted shares, eg cannot hold them in ISAs, complicated/expensive to keep in SIPP, difficult/expensive to re-sell through OTC trade etc.
I assume you're thinking they could let the company become insolvent, which it's clearly quite close to now, call in the administrators then make a low offer to buy the assets as a private company before re-starting production under a different name?

BlakeneyP, I agree it does appear suspicious, especially knowing what we now know. The couldn't have thought in January that there was no gold in 430 west though?