Member Info for Bismarck

unlucky lucy

i suspect i hold a lot more of these shares than you, maybe i don't, but either way i would very much prefer them to go back up to 20p again and continue their journey to my planned exit level of 30p, rather than back down to 10

however i'm not a dreamer. it's obvious that one of the main factors influencing the sp and it's far beyond the control of the company. i understand the risk/reward ratio and i decided to top up with some loose change today. not a big deal, another 22,000 shares, a miniscule addition

you call me a troll for pointing out the problem?

i've been a holder in this company for years, a long time before you decided to grace your presence here and become a prolific poster. 125 posts over the past 30 days alone? not very healthy is it, maybe you should go visit a dating site instead or find some other interest? at least i have a life beyond this chat board, ******!

Political instability in the region is probably the main reason the SP seems to be on its way back to single digits.

Have taken advantage of the sub 12p SP today to top up. Wasn't expecting it to drop quite as low as this considering we've had no bad news. I guess we will not see a re-rate until Kour approaches nameplate and the ££££ start piling in.

" i am right in thinking that i need to subtract 1.5% off the quoted yield due to American Tax. So 15% is in reality 13.5% "

A £1 divi reduces to 85p after withholding tax, so multiply current yield of circa 15% X 0.85 = 12.75% net, not 13.5%

It's cheap because many people don't believe the current yield is sustainable. If they believed it there would be a buying frenzy and SP would rise accordingly. With dividends reinvested, excluding tax and assuming no change to SP or yield you would double your money every 5 years.

This is my biggest holding right now in my SIPP, into 6 digits and no withholding tax.

"It ain't over until the fat lady sings" and the worsening political situation in west Africa are both affecting the SP.

The company needs to prove it can run a profitable mine in the short to medium term at least, and there needs to be more stability in the region before the SP can approach even a fraction of its potential fair value. Recent coup in Niger and threats of military intervention by neighbours to restore order there must also be unsettling for investors who are concerned about investing in a neighbouring country also ruled by a military junta.

How much did you lose on this share squid?

I agree this particular transaction was just an individual director buying shares, and 75000 is not a significant number either at the current SP.

There is no tax on buybacks. With divis most people will pay tax.

OK this board is strangely filtering out the following -

less than sign

dollar sign

number sixty

how odd

Meant to say "with ICI4 averaging

I certainly think the last 3 months must have gone very well, with ICI4 averaging 9 Rupee tariff. Should continue going well too, so long as govt does not mess with the tariff while coal price is still higher than historic average.

Due to be released this week based on timing for past 2 years....

Thanks Ginoir. The biggest sell quote I could get was 30,000 @ 18p. I was tempted to hit the sell button but refrained. Perhaps I'll regret the decision not to offload some at 18p tomorrow?

Can anyone explain or guess at what's going on today?

175 trades so far today, mostly a few pence or a couple of pounds. There are a handful over £1K

Obviously the 60% rise in SP is unlikely to be sustained for long on these volumes

3C quarterly so 12C/year, excluding specials. There was a 5C special paid in May

This dropped to 5 to 6p when ICI4 was well over $100 and we had a tariff of about 6 rupee/kwh. Presently we have ICI4 at $50 and a tariff of >9 rupee/kwh

If tariff returned to ~ 6 or 7 rupee/kwh and power stations were forced to operate at ~100% PLF with a $55 coal price I think many would go out of business. That would be in nobody's interest. I think it would be foolish of the govt to reduce the tariff unless they are confident that the coal price will remain under $40 for the foreseeable. Therefore I don't think it's likely to happen so I expect OPG to be profitable in Y/E 24

Cenkos have today released a broker note with some fairly pessimistic assumptions for 2024 -

Revenue £60m

Reduced electricity tariff

Ave coal price $55

PLF 36%

PT loss of £4.1m

If the Indian govt needs power stations to operate at a high PLF they will surely not reduce the tariff while coal price remains above normal historic levels?

I agree this is positive.

The PLF should remain high, India's power demand in May 23 reached the highest level in their history.

India is still forecast to be the fastest growing economy in the world so demand for electricity will increase

Coal prices have greatly reduced this year and are still dropping

India is increasing domestic coal production with the aim of becoming a net exporter, which should in future ensure a plentiful supply of reasonably priced coal

The company has reduced debt

What's not to like?