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I've got institutions at 86%, public at 10% and others @ 4% from SWS

Thanks Trek.

A much more detailed reply than I was expecting. Not sure I fully understand the mechanisms involved but thanks for taking the time to reply.

NATURAL GAS NEWS Jun 2, 2023 6:15:am

Great Eastern Energy Corporation (GEECL), an Indian coalbed methane (CBM) producer, plans to invest approximately $700mn over the next few years to increase gas output at its Raniganj (South) block, CEO Prashant Modi tells NGW. “We are going ahead with an efficiency capital expenditure programme in this financial year [FY2024]. This is expected to increase gas production from the existing CBM wells. We plan to further undertake drilling of another 144 CBM wells starting next financial year,” he said. “Thereafter, subject to government approval, the company may undertake d...

https://www.naturalgasworld.com/geecl-to-invest-700mn-to-boost-cbm-output-in-india-interview-105445

"The MM then follows through with a single share liquidity trade to keep the price down!"

How does that work Trek?

Odd that there's been no upward movement in the SP in reaction to the positive comments made by RB and the regulator recently, ie their optimism that the obstacles to the deal's approval will soon be resolved.

Well I hope they can pull it off. I'd be delighted if they re-listed then got taken over at anything >£1 / share

I note that the company's data has now been removed from LSE and there are no results when you insert the name in the company search box. The only way I of returning to this chat appears to be by using the direct link https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=GEEC&share=Great-Eastern

I'd be surprised if they were negotiating a further loan, debt level is already too high. More likely to be further shareholder dilution IMO

terry, that's the reason there's a filter button on this site, to remove all the ****e!

If the price of any commodity falls significantly for a prolonged period the natural market reaction is for the higher cost producers to stop producing as they're making a loss, and for producers as a whole to cease investing in new projects as the metrics are no longer attractive.

Then eventually a shortage of the commodity, driven by lower availability will force up prices, and those who weathered the storm and are still in the game do very well out of it.

So my thoughts are where does THS rank compared with its peers in its costs? Certainly it ranks well in terms of debt, or lack of it. I've always thought of it as a low cost producer?

Tom, I use Avast secure browser which is based on Google browser nut has adblockers. I now see no popups here.

The bug I was taking about mysteriously causes whole blocks of text in the final part of some posts to dematerialise.

Earlier I was attempting to post, before this boards software removed the words, that Nigeria's central bank's interest rate was just under 12 percent when this deal was announced early in 2022 but now stands at just under 19 percent. What effect does this have on the deal and its financing? I'd be damned if I'd choose to borrow money at 19 percent!

Final attempt to defeat the boards software bug....

Not all message loaded....second try

"Funding structure committed by a syndicate of Nigerian and African regional banks, and energy and commodity traders"

I do wonder what effect Nigeria's central bank's interest rate increase, from

I've re-read Seplat's original presentation on the acquisition. There is no doubt it would (hopefully will) be transformational. https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/wojc2c5e/seplat-acquisition-of-mpnu-presentation.pdf

"Funding structure committed by a syndicate of Nigerian and African regional banks, and energy and commodity traders"

I do wonder what effect Nigeria's central bank's interest rate increase, from

Been doing some sums based on Stocko numbers which should still be relevant up to delisting date, but will not have been updated.

Book value $85m

Book value PS $0.714 (or about 57p)

Wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a divi of 3 to 4% of current book value eventually so about 2p/share. Of course if they grow to become a major shale producer you'd expect to have to wait longer for it, but could be a lot more when it does arrive. Keep fingers crossed...

"SHG is already paying a dividend, demonstrating delivery.

HUM needs to convince the market

One has about 120m net debt, the other has zero.

Debt matters when it comes to risk premia"

All very true. HUM is cheap because it's considered high risk (which it is) has high debts and needs to convince the markets.

SHGs divi is so small it's not really part of the equation IMO. For a lower risk approach and higher divi I favour CMCL. Their relatively high P/E is due to them diverting revenue towards development of a second mine, but at 5% the divi is still worth having.

I may have been a bit out on my dates Baz. I remember my father telling me several decades ago that typical pay on the coal face was around £20K and I assumed that was 80's, but could equally have been 90's.

Looks like the going rate on coal face was £40K in 2012 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-15445418

"I think SHG is an absolute steal at current prices"

Interestingly stocko shows a 2024E PE of 6.2 for SHG compared with a 2024E PE of 0.87 for HUM

That's based on SHG's 2024 revenue being $189m and EPS of 1.9 cents (US).

Compared with HUM's 2024 revenue at $412m and EPS of 10.2 cents (US).

On those numbers HUM is a far better buy. This of course relies on both companies achieving forecasts!

That's interesting. I remember coal miners in the north of England earning £20K back in the 80's. That would surely be equivalent to £40-50K nowadays. I guess that's why so many of the pits were uneconomical so were closed by Ian MacGregor with Mrs Thatcher's blessing.

I wouldn't do mining for £30K either. I've no idea what they actually earn drilling underground in Scotland, probably a fair bit more than that, maybe it's £40-50K?. I was just trying to make a point that Scotgold must be paying 10X the renumeration of even a fairly renumerated (not exploited) African miner.

Scotgold boasted grades of 17g/ton if I recall....problem is this year they couldn't find the vein and exhausted their working cap... so 0g/ton at times....with no reserve in bank.

African miners have lower grades, 3 to 5 g/ton, but veins are wide and wages low, hence they have a viable business with AISC of $1000 or so. Scotgold's "super high grade" (as big Phil would say) should have made us all wealthy (or whatever)...but instead has made our shares practically worthless....

Or will a knight in shining armor appear, willing to invest the £10-20M Scotgold needs to give it a chance? If they do I'd guess it's most likely to be a post administration deal cutting out existing shareholders. However I live in hope. You never know a positive RNS could be round the corner...haha?