Member Info for Bismarck

£12.58 = $15.94

I'm in agreement on all the points you made and see no reason why the SP should not eventually return to the previous trading range of £20 to £24 (£1 to £1.20 in old money).

This is on the basis that hedged gas price remains >$3, allowing the current divi to be maintained or even increased long term. The skeptics or naysayers will eventually have to accept that the business model (still) works and the SP will slowly recover.

I think £18 or 90p in old money is a realistic target to end 2024 too.

I agree the NAV figure looks to be on the low side at 50% of the new build cost when it still has a 35 year life expectancy. They do still have to spend a fair bit to clean up their emission as I recall but the deadline for that was extended due to the effects of Covid. I've not heard any news on that of late. Needless to say £50m Mcap for a 500mw plant (coal + solar) with 35 year life expectancy is comical! Surely nobody but the Indian state is going to build new power stations @ £820K/MWH when you can buy shares in OPG for £100K/MWH

With El Nino and falling prices you'd think with DEC's hedging policy and NG futures from Dec 24 onwards at >$3 gas investors would consider DEC as a relatively safe haven and be buying, pushing up the SP. Perhaps with the US listing they will?

Https://www.geecl.com/pdfs/IFRS-Financials-30-09-2023.pdf

Now does seem a very odd time to short this company. I know it's easy to say with the benefit of hindsight but the time to short was when gas prices and DEC SP were both at their peak around 16 months ago.

With US listing imminent, significant confidence in their business model evident from the support of the many US banks that make up their panel of lenders and >80% institutional share ownership it's clear that the shorters are betting against a great number of competent and knowledgeable people. I wouldn't choose to.

So a new power station costs £350m

Book value £171m

OPG Mcap £54m

India's power demand will increase year on year. With such high capex to build new power stations and I would guess interest rates for this kind of debt at about 10% I really cannot see a rush by other providers to bring new power projects online, given the miniscule or negative profits after accounting for capex/debt repayments. Maybe the Indian govt will intervene to build more state operated power stations or maybe they'll allow higher tariffs to encourage the development of more privately run projects.

Either way OPG is in a great place with minimal debt and a long life asset. PLF will surely need to increase year on year to help meet demand. India's domestic coal production is increasing so coal price will come down. Surely this share should be in the 20's by now.

I guess registration and trading are different. I would expect an RNS to confirm the date trading will commence so I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if it's today.

What's suddenly awoken GAMBLORIV since his/her last post 2 years and 11 months ago? Has he/her/it been watching DEC intently for all this time and now finally worked out that the company is a fraud?

There's a very simple solution to these trolls, the block feature!

Just like I blocked GG several weeks ago!

Seplat is up 120% over past 12 months in Lagos compared with about 60% increase in London

https://afx.kwayisi.org/ngx/seplat.html

SP is around £2.30 in Lagos. One wonders why?

According to my Stocko portfolio I'm now a multimillionaire, LOL!

@Vulture, US listing is planned for about a week or so from now as I recall, the exact date is on the RNS

They stated there would be no dilution resulting from the US listing

It has been increased, but not by as much as they'd hoped. Note the comment about Nigeria failing to meet previous quotas.

"Based on that it has given Nigeria a 2024 target of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), Angola one of 1.11 million bpd and Congo a target of 277,000 bpd, OPEC+ said in the statement.

In June it had been agreed, pending the assessments by the consultancies, that Angola could produce 1.28 million bpd and Nigeria 1.38 mln bpd and possibly as much as 1.58 million bpd.

Both have failed to meet previous quotas hurt by underinvestment and security issues.

Congo’s target for 2024 is roughly in line with what was agreed in June."

https://businessday.ng/energy/article/opec-caps-nigerias-oil-output-at-1-5mbd-in-new-quota-allocation/

I meant £73/quarter, £292/year LOL

Another 2100 shares for me too today, at 64p. Bought my average down by 1p LOL and could pay me £73/year indefinitely with luck.

Sorry, earnings falls not revenue

Pikeman

The Simply wall street site as posted earlier today, https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-dec/diversified-energy-shares

Computer generated numbers, probably confused by the accounts indicating 73% revenue falls

I certainly believe in the business model is working and the 40% FCF divi affordable, as far as I'm aware that's been the case for the past 6 years and nothing has happened to change that. This is my second largest holding and I've managed to average down to 92p now so even at that average I'm currently seeing a 15% divi. The next 2 years divis will fully compensate me for the SP drop if it stays where it is, although I don't see any reason for it not returning to it's historical £1 to £1.20 range in the next year or so.

If DEC can sustain the current divi and maintain a reasonable level of BBs for a prolonged period (a year, 2 years, 3 years?) surely during that period market will gradually start to realise that the business model they're using actually works and the SP will recover?

Also, the fact that this is owned mainly by institutions, and to my knowledge the % of institutional ownership is not reducing significantly would suggest that there are plenty of informed people with confidence in the company and its business model, which makes the continued SP weakness difficult for me to understand.