Member Info for Bismarck

Axe

If there are insufficient Brits unloading to satisfy demand in the US how does that lower the SP? I would have thought the opposite would apply?

Why oh why did I not take profits, or better still sell out completely in the spring when commissioning began and SP was >18p?

Reason - I was greedy and expected production to ramp up as planned, for us to be raking in $$$$ and for the SP to be in the 30's by now.

I neglected to take into account the Hummingbird factor, LOL!

Looks like the US SP has dropped to meet the UK SP after UK SP failed to maintain Friday's US SP gain today.....

"The Company intends to issue its fourth quarter and year-end 2023 Trading Statement during the customary timeframe at the end of this month."

From RNS commenting on recent share price movement

....and at current SP by Feb 27 the divi's received will have almost covered the cost of buying the shares..

We know that DEC hedges most production 12-24 months ahead.

Feb 25 to Jan 26 ave futures price is $3.5

Feb 26 to Jan 27 ave futures price is $3.9

I think I read that they need to average at least $3 so if they've locked in prices similar to the above or better for 25/26 the future looks good.

I think it was Benjamin Graham that said something to the effect that a share price is just a quotation or an offer to buy your shares. You obviously don't have to accept it.

So long as there's an annual divi of £2.76 / share or anything even remotely close to that number I'll not be considering offers or quotes under £15 to past with any of mine.

If something changes fundamentally I may reconsider, but it hasn't as yet.

Currently £10.30 / $13.13

"So how many years of reserves do others get? And how do they get to this figure?"

Key to the business model in the long run is being able to acquire additional wells, at least partly through debt, as a minimum to offset the decline and ideally to actually increase production. Of late they've chosen to reduce debt and accept some decline but I doubt that strategy will continue indefinitely. If it does the company will just fizzle out and die off.

The youtube video that followed on from this was https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5hYsdVbW2E

Very interesting interview with African Billionaire Aliko Dangote

He explains that at the current rate of population growth Nigeria will be the 3rd most populous country in the world by 2050, behind only China and India.

What a growth market and what better energy company than Seplat to invest in?

The liability for capping @ circa $20K/well is covered in DEC's forecasts and if capping is their only liability I have few concerns. However if they also need to remove infrastructure and make good the land it seems this would incur significantly higher costs, much higher than accounted for.

I would have thought that obligations in this regard would be clear cut? Surely agreed in the original driller's contract and presumably also agreed with DEC at the point the wells were sold?

Notrex,

it's very hard to engage with someone whose posts only say -

"This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view"

I assume DEC are responsible only for capping the wells rather than restoring the land to its original condition, otherwise their accounts would reflect a higher capping cost.

DEC's 14 bank lending syndicate are obviously aware of the ongoing McEvoy v. Diversified Energy Co. case but it does not appear to have affected DEC's credit worthiness.

"BIRMINGHAM, AL / ACCESSWIRE / September 26, 2023 / Diversified Energy Company PLC (LSE:DEC) (“Diversified” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce its completion of the semi-annual borrowing base redetermination for the Company’s revolving credit facility, structured as a Sustainability-Linked Loan. The borrowing base under the facility was increased to $425 million from $375 million with 100% approval from Diversified’s 14-bank lending syndicate, resulting in current liquidity of approximately $120 million."

Yes the divi is almost 25%

IMO the congress investigation is almost wholly without merit, we had a similar thing with Bloomberg in 2021

Not difficult to track the SP. If you google DEC share price the resulting long term chart I see is corrected for consolidation.

I recommend reading Oak Bloke's articles on DEC https://theoakbloke.substack.com/archive?sort=top and do other DD before you make up your own mind. I'm still adding.

Eviking

I think you're mistaken. Life's a GAS!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkIS9f91xxE

Fair point and sound advice.

But most large SP drops are not without good reason, seriously unfavourable trading conditions, profit warning, divi cut, warning of potential administration etc. None apply here.

One wonders how low the SP can go just on poor sentiment and misunderstanding of the accounts and business model?

Anyone who's ever played poker will know the expression "all in".

With the SP and dividend % where they are currently sitting that's what I often feel tempted to do with my investment in DEC.

As a lowly student of Benjamin Graham I cannot help feeling this is too good an opportunity to miss.

Currently this is about 25% of my portfolio, increased from about 15% previously due to topping up as the SP has fallen over the past few months. While I'm not really going to go "all in" I am seriously contemplating buying more.

.......based on past 12 months and assuming they continue to pay the same divi + specials that is

A growth share (hopefully) with circa 9% net divi after tax. What's not to like?