Member Info for Bismarck

If you assume they'll continue to pay specials, which they may take a break from to finance this deal, the divi is near 10%, net of withholding tax.

@pickedpeck

I believe the reason they're listed in London was because a listing on AIM was less onerous than a NYSE listing. Obviously things have moved on and they outgrew AIM to join LSE main market.

Correct Bushy. Over the past 2-3 years I must have read literally dozens of bullish forecasts on POG, none yet to materialise. I invested here because I thought (and still think) that with a reasonably favourable POG and Hum delivering on anything close to promised volumes this is way, way undervalued.

My investment decision here is based on circa 200KOZ @ a POG of >$1800 and an AISC of circa $1300. Anything better is a real bonus.

I've no clue what Comex predicts....$2000, $2500, $3000?

With 800,000 shares here I'll buy you many beers if my pessimism is unfounded and gold explodes.

On a completely separate note, what happened to that unlucky lucy clown who accused me of being a troll?

I'd be delighted to be proven wrong but I don't take any predictions about POG hitting numbers much above $2100 within the short to mid term seriously. In all honesty anything in the $1900 to $2100 range should do very nicely and if Hum cannot make a success of it at those prices next year when they will apparently be in full production I guess they should throw in the towel. Do I think they will make it work? Well I bought the shares so I'm gambling on it happening!

I still think the reason for today's drop is half wits incorrectly associating DEC with the POO which as we all know is only a very small fraction of their business. Oil price now appears to be recovering somewhat and if it continues to do so I expect to see the same people pushing this SP along with oil majors back up again tomorrow. I could be wrong. Let's wait and see.

Certainly no rational explanation for DEC's current or recent SP

Interestingly this seems to be following the oil majors SP decline today as POO is down about 4%. This is despite US gas price actually increasing slightly!

A lot of oil company shares being sold today, majors' SP down between 2 and 3% reflecting >3% drop in POO.

I wonder how the Mason's feel having handed over £0.5m 7 months ago?

I've never put the numbers into a spreadsheet to compare cumulative returns, but it's obvious to me that foreign divi yielding shares subject to withholding tax go straight into the SIPP if there is a tax exemption.

The SP has an African "haircut" for sure, like many mining companies operating in that continent. Ironically it was another well run company in Africa, Caledonia Mining that I sold out of today to top up here, and did so only because I can see short-med term upside here with this deal which is not priced in.

I've just sold up elsewhere and topped up here today. Hard to believe the SP has not moved on all this news. The market seems to have an unbelievably indifferent attitude towards this share. Makes me wonder whether the deal, which now looks very likely to go through will be transformational to the SP or not.

"Strong macro natural gas fundamentals. Natural gas storage levels have normalised on the back of record high natural gas fired power generation, strong LNG exports and US natural gas exported through pipelines to Mexico. At the same time, we anticipate US natural gas production growth will be limited in the coming months following the dramatic decrease in natural gas drilling rigs (37 fewer rigs YoY, a c24% YoY reduction). We believe this strong fundamental backdrop will support and strengthen the forward natural gas curve. Further, with the start-up of an additional 2.7Bcf/d of nominal LNG export capacity by the end of 2024, we see increased premiums for DEC’s Central Region assets relative to NYMEX. "

I'm somewhat below 93p with divis Terry but I've been a holder since 2020 and too lazy to record divis in my portfolio's performance.

By coincidence 93p is what I averaged down to with my recent buying in the 60's so I'd certainly be happy with a break even 93p and a 15% divi

Now I wonder what that meeting was about ?

IMO Both options 1 and 2 are acceptable, subject to restricting any increased debt to a fairly modest level, maybe $50-$100m and stopping borrowing for BBs once divi drops below 15%?

The declared 4.37C divi related to £0.01 shares so yes it follows that it should be 87C for £0.2 shares.

Just realised my previous post omitted to acknowledge new wells brought on line via acquisitions in the past 12 months, so the true decline rate was higher than 7%?

I repost what I posted a couple of days ago regarding decline rate -

"50 YEAR COMPLETE PORTFOLIO RETIREMENT SCENARIO" on P33 of the September presentation they use a 4.5% long term production decline rate.

So what is the correct decline rate? , 10%, 4.5% or something between?

last year was circa 7% 144 vs 134.4 (Mboepd)as AOC pointed out.

Huge difference between 4.5 and 10.