Member Info for Bismarck

"If they can lower their AISC could see a really strong bounce back"

If they cannot lower the AISC this will just be a temporary blip in the downward trajectory!

With a market cap of $24M US, if NP does reach $8M in 2023 that's a P/E of 3, and for 2024 a NP of $12M is a P/E of 2 !

So I've topped up, added 25% to my existing holding @ 19p and averaged down to 21p

Great Eastern Energy Corporation Limited (LSE: GEEC), will announce its
interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2022 on Monday, 7
November 2022.

Thanks Troy

I'd already read SPAngel's releases and I've now looked at Market Screener and Simply Wall St too, to no avail.

Not been able to check Arden, perhaps they are the source?

With the new tariff and stronger post Covid demand I would expect the numbers to be much improved for 23/24

Seems daft this still being at 18p. Just got to decide what to sell to release funds to buy a few more....

Stockopedia are showing the following net profits -

2022 $1.39M
2023E $8.2M
2024E $12.3M

Anyone seen any company releases or broker notes to substantiate these 23/24 forecasts?

Presumably they don't want more debt otherwise they would not be selling off the existing solar project to pay off debt?

So any capital to expand of the business would need to come from profits or a raise...

Some of the main points I take from the results are -

FY22 coal cost was actually only 5460 Rs/Ton ($67) VS FY21 cost @ 4127 RS/Ton ($50). This is a 32% increase, but the costs and increase in nothing compared with what we've seen with Newcastle coal.

FY21 Tariff was 5.4 Rs/KWH. These results are to 31 March. OPG have stated that their average tariff for the 5 months ending 31 Aug 22 (in other words, the 5 months following their FY22 results) was 9.15 Rs, a 69% increase on the ave FY22 tariff.

So, what to expect for FY23?

Hopefully ave FY23 tariff will continue to average at least 9.15 Rs and coal price will not increase further. What they don't appear to have published is their average coal cost for the 5 months to 31 August corresponding with the higher tariff, which would give a better indication of what FY23 coal costs might be.

I believe they use a mixture of domestic and Indonesian coal but I don't know the ratio. I believe Indonesian is now around $85/Ton. Domestic is obviously less otherwise they wouldn't use it.

Does anyone know the answers?

I think it's unlikely either pipeline will ever see gas flow again, at least not without regime change in Russia, irrespective of the condition of the pipe. US gas price is still falling......

$2050 (or £1516). That's the equivalent price Scotgold are selling gold for now, after correcting for the 20% loss in value of sterling over the past 12 months.

I don't see CMCL's AISC increasing that much in the next year or so

My assumption is that the main driver in AISC increases across the board will be diesel/power cost?

A significant amount of CMCL's energy is from a fully paid up solar plant which mitigates energy price increases

Also being shaft miners (with correspondingly higher grades than most open pit operations) there is a lot less ore to excavate and process per oz, so they should be further insulated from energy price increases.

The regular and fairly predictable SP volatility would actually provide a good opportunity for a bit of trading, if there was any liquidity there....

Should be back up to mid to late 70's with the thickener commissioned and further improved results, with a slow drift back down to the 60's during Q4.....

CMCL's 2022 Q2 AISC was $925

I was expecting some news by now too, update normally released by the second week of the month

And without a regular flow of reassuring news market interest and the SP just fall away....

Certainly agree

We're now at under half the SP we saw in Jan and I've no idea where the bad sentiment has come from. As far as I'm concerned the SP should have at least maintained that level. I'm also in DEC and SEPL and they've both done well this year (very well compared to the market), even with the Exxon fiasco affecting SEPL

I take POG forecasts with a pinch of salt, but for what it's worth....

Gold Price Forecast 2022
The average Gold Price Forecast 2022 is $2087

Year-end Forecast for 2022
Average of Last 5 Forecasts $2087
ANZ $1950
Citibank $1910
Commerzbank $1900
Goldman Sachs $2500
Monetary Metals $2100

Source - https://crowdwisdom.live/us-stocks/gold-price-forecast-today/

Thanks Bonker

You seem very bullish on POG, do hope you're right, I've a very large chunk of my portfolio spread across 3 junior gold miners.

Well even though I told myself "never again", I've finally succumb to the temptation of the compelling metrics of Kouroussa and dipped toes in at 8.24p today....100 Koz/year for £31m mcap is certainly cheap, ignoring the other two, as I have.

I think the'll still be a handful operating close to $1000, but I take your point about rising costs.

That's what I was thinking if you take the diagram on their Kor presentation literally. If they can ramp up from 1st pour to 100Koz within 6 to 9 months I'll be impressed, even more so if they can keep the AISC to <$1000.

Have Hum given an indication of timeframe to ramp up to nameplate production at Kor? I can only see first pour due by end Q2 23