Member Info for Bismarck

That's interesting, and Thanks.

I've not really been following hum this year since I sold out so was unaware that Dugbe was being sold. Maybe that makes the investment proposition more attractive to me I had been concerned Dugbe could also turn into a liability ...clearly need to do more DD on this....

Been crunching some numbers and something does not look right.

Bilboes AISC is actually forecast at circa $820 vs Dugbe $1005/oz AISC

Let's assume it costs about the same to excavate and process 1 ton of ore irrespective of grade

Dugbe-
At 1.3 g/ton you need to process 21.5 tons/ore per oz gold
At AISC $1005/oz that's $46.5/ton

Bilboes-
At 2.3 g/ton you need to process 12 tons/ore per oz
At AISC $820/oz that's $68/ton

So CMCL have factored in excavation, processing and other on-mine costs of $68/ton at Bilboes VS $46/ton for Hum/Pasofino at Dugbe.

Something look odd?

I topped up today at £1.22 in the knowledge that the company is worth more than that even without Exxon deal. If it goes through then I'll certainly be a happy bunny!

I should clarify that I'm comparing Dugbe grade with Bilboes as Bilboes is also open pit, whereas Blanket is shaft.

Genuine question, not an attempt to provoke an argument (honest!)....I am considering dipping toe back into water but even at today's prices I'm not fully convinced that this is the best place to move investments to...

Dugbe ave grade 1.3g and forecast AISC $1005/oz. 1.3g is not exactly the best grade even for open pit but still a very low AISC forecast

Given Hum's track record of missing AISC targets by some wide margin presumably there is an expectation that Pasofino can do a significantly better job at mining?

By comparison, CMCL forecast similar AISC at Bilboes (assuming it goes through) but with a significantly better grade -They also have a track record of meeting or exceeding guidance.

"The Project has NI43-101 compliant proven and probable mineral reserves of 1.96 million ounces of gold at a grade of 2.29 g/t and measured and indicated mineral resources of 2.56 million ounces of gold at a grade of 2.26 g/t and inferred mineral resources of 577,000 ounces of gold at a grade of 1.89 g/t. The Project has produced approximately 288,000 ounces of gold since 1989."

Thoughts?

Agricore

What does "meh" mean?

I've tried searching.....

Acronym Definition
MEH Miniszterelnöki Hivatal
MEH Marine Ecosystem Health
MEH Mount Elizabeth Hospital
MEH Modern European History (Advanced Placement Test)
MEH Marine Electronic Highway
MEH Multi Engine Helicopter (aviation course)
MEH Moorfields Eye Hospital
MEH Midwest Express Holdings Inc.
MEH Make Everything Happen
MEH Master of Environmental Horticulture (various locations)
MEH Muji Europe Holdings (Japan)
MEH Materials Engineering Hamburg GmbH
MEH Mobile-Executed Handoff

I'd like to know what they pay for Indian coal and what % of OPG's coal consumption is sourced from their mines but I've never had any success in my searches.

That aside, they've forecast a profit this year and their latest release states that they still expect 2022 results as previous guidance so that's certainly a result. In fact Stocko gives them a forward P/E of 5 and a trailing P/E of 4.4 so no distress there.

I'm amazed this has hardly recovered from the 6p lows with the news of tariffs and maintained profit forecast.

Unless it all goes completely pear shaped with coal next year it can only improve from here. With Indian economy forecasting strong growth it's hard for me to see that this will not be a 3 bagger or more from here within 3 years.

Think I'll top up again, average now 9p, 8p would be better!

Some of them are apparently 49% off

If I were a bachelor I'd certainly consider paying the full price, so I can only assume the bots that control the website know my marital status and are pitching a favorable deal to try to entice me?

I'm not averse to reinvesting in this company. However I'm not convinced we've reached the bottom yet and if/when I do any reinvestment will just be a punt initially.

I have one burning question though, whenever I open this chat page I'm confronted with many photo's of beautiful and scantily clad women. Is this normal or is it a result of my wife's online shopping habit's?

@ Ace

I certainly remember for 12 months from 2019 gas averaged around $2.0MMBtu mark and the likes of Shell cut their divi and their SP dropped 1/3

No such problems for DEC during that period, flat SP and progressively increasing divis (excluding brief panic period in spring 2020 when all SP's dropped)

DEC acknowledge that the hedging policy is a financial burden, but their policy is to maintain a stable and very favorable divi rather than try to maximise the return. It's an insurance policy that comes at a price. Price is now being felt.

The exact quote from the oracle of Omaha -

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

"I bought a few today. Couple yesterday too. Not completely sure why I do this to myself....."

At this price I'm tempted too Swampmonster....but so far I've resisted

Problem is, I keep on recalling the wise words of a certain well known investor....

Better to buy a good company at a fair price, than a fair company at a good price....

"I bought a few today. Couple yesterday too. Not completely sure why I do this to myself....."

At this price I'm tempted too Swampmonster....but so far I've resisted

Problem is, I keep on recalling the wise words of a certain well known investor....

Better to buy a good company at a fair price, than a fair company at a good price....

This is a utility company, not an energy company. Coal at $361/ton. OK Indian domestic coal is a lot less, but still expensive.

I have plenty of shares in OPG at an average of around 10p and I would love to see 30p, but that is a long way off I'm afraid......

We're certainly in agreement there. Fundamentally Hum have a very good investment case....but...

No "intent" as such in my post, just my point of view. I no longer have any interest in the movement of the SP.

Happy with a dividend of >5% in CMCL with a divi cover of circa X5

Now much easier to do business in Zim since Mugabe has gone. CMCL could have bought a new mine elsewhere but chose one in Zim. Must be some reason. Mali not exactly what you would call stable either...

If Bilboes works out it CMCL SP will eventually re-rate but for now the SP has hardly moved since the Bilboes announcement so it's not priced in. If the deal fails, nothing lost, Maligreen can be developed instead. Even without Mali the 12M forward P/E is 3.6

CMCL is never going to be an Amazon or a Tesla, maybe Hum could re-rate by X3 or X5 or whatever with Kouroussa and Dugbe but with current management I would not count on it.

"You can't even discover gold resources at £12 an ounce, never mind cost it into reserves at multi-million ounces size - this mcap is crazy, there must be something else going on."

Sorry but I disagree, CMCL have bought Bilboes @ $17/oz which is a little more than £12 but in the scheme of things, when gold sells for >$1500 it's irrelevant whether it's $17 or $40. They (CMCL) have a proven track record of operating at sub $1000 AISC which is what matters and why their SP is still where it was 12 months ago and has not collapsed like Hum.

I got involved in Hum spring 21 at 23p and bailed out a few months ago at 13p, using that money to add to CMCL.

Sorry if this sounds like a flame but it's not. I got burned with Hum but at least I got out. ..better late than never.

GLA, I sincerely hope they can turn it around....

Just topped up my holding by 34% so now almost back to my previous (undiluted) ownership level.

I'm actually surprised this did not break the £9 barrier today, especially given the size of some of the unusually large buys. Then again, this is a junior gold miner in Zim, so not top of most people's buy list.....

As I see it we'll just be owning 29% less of a larger company.

To me it looks like a good acquisition. They presently produce 80Koz X 0.64 (accounting for non CMCL ownership) at Blanket equating to = 51 Koz. 200Koz combined from both mines would be a 300% increase in revenue. For the new mine, being open cast they estimate similar (or slightly lower) AISC than Blanket, so if the capex for the new mine can be largely self funded while maintaining the divi I give it the thumbs up.

There are 12.2m undiluted shares in issue

So this will increase to 17.3m after dilution by 5.1m new shares

5.1m is about 29% of 17.3m