Somebody said DYOR, so I did24 Mar 2025 13:18
A few thoughts from my research today. There's been talk of the Barclays short position and some dispute on it. Its not published on short tracker or here, because Barclays are in a net long position, however, they have reduced their short position from 5.09% on 27/02 to 4.66% by Friday last. However, there are a couple of things which concern me. Societe Generale has extended their short position to 2.67% from 1.95% on same date range, albeit they have extended their long position too. The other slight worry is as I've mentioned before Abrdn had claimed to know a little about the position of the November drop and then loaded up as a result claiming it was "overdone" - however, they are now exiting, down from 3.8% on 25/02 to 2.32% today, what do they know now??.....
Finally - there's been mention of the 110p GS sale / purchase, I don't see that as good news, and the market doesn't seem to have either. If somebody is exercising a 110p put option, they are clearly expecting the deal to be less than that number when it happens. I'm increasingly thinking that an offer number will get published, but it will be too low for the IIs to accept, they will prefer a longer option of an equity raise and a 2-3 year plan to get back to in excess of 150p.... I'm just hopeful that once it does get published it will influence the SP sufficiently for us to get out without too much pain.