Member Info for Bigw77

I wasn't being very clear. what i meant was......... to state a price range of + or minus 2p isn't a big range, because in the last 6 months we've been at least 20 PENCE either side of 40p. Its been a solid prediction.

@JO - I'm intrigued - you predicted 40p, and said it would be 2p either side. given the SP range over the last 6 months that's not a wide range really.You've been spot on- Why did you think this?

Others have estimated, and it was quoted in the FT that those close to the deal estimated the consultancy busines s to be worth £1bn

I don't believe their trading is FTSE related. They were at 5.37 at 25th Feb - went up to 7.49 by 13th March. Another poster has suggested that they transfered out to L&G, but I've not been able to spot that myself. either way their holding is still very significant, have in mind too that we haven't had updates from fidelity and FMR from some while so they are still holding circa 10% each without wavering,.

Honestly stupmy its just a number, I'm trying to illustrate that we don't know, its pointless any of us saying it migth be tomorrow, it might be next week, a watched pot and all that - we just need to be patient and it will happen and we will be grateful ( I hope!)

We may just as well roll dice on a date. All that we really know is that it will be between 3.33pm today and another 8 weeks.

Good to see that Aberdeen are now holding steady having taken a couple of reductions. Also good to see that (by my maths) the IIs are holding around 80.6%, this is down from 84.2% when the takeover announcement was first made. Such a small reduction when there is this uncertainty. There will of course be others who have sucked up enough to be just sub 1% and therefore not needing to notify via the 8.3s coming through. Gives some confidence.

I'd guess not, we will really really know when there's a leak.

Interested in others' views on a couple of things...

If you are on Sidara's board do you think that you would want the SP to rise significantly prior to making your final bid? My thought process is it would give confidence in your own bid, if the value is also seen by others(?)

also

The pension fund surplus release, WG has said that they aren't going to take the surplus due to uncertainties caused by the Deloitte report - I don't see the link myself - any sensible views?

@JO - i think we can expect outcome of the review to either be the same date or prior to the results. In the Feb Buisness update Gilmartin said... "A further update in relation to the Review’s findings, and any impact the timing of the Review may have on the timetable for publication of the Company’s preliminary results and annual report and accounts will be provided when appropriate"

It would be a very expensive fishing trip

Medjed - its becuase Barclays also hold a long position. it is only when somebody holds a nett short position which is at 0.5% or higher, that it gets reported to the FCA and then appears on the trakcer.

Appear to be some chunky sells around 1555, shame we don't see the opposite SP impact when the buys go through like that

It is plain and simple yes. The 8.3s publish the long and the short position. A short position only needs publishing if it is greater than 0.5%, but becuase we are in a takeover position we are seeign more information. This is not about a sale, it is not trading, it is holding both a long and a short position. Societe Generale are also doing this.

They do worry me a little, they did get to 7.49 before a transfer out, they're now lower than they were beforethe takeover announcement

I'd agree on this LLT - Barclays, whilst they are nett long, they actually increased their short yesterday

If we look back at the February busines update there are some ideas which spring to mind:

One would expect revenue to be as reported at 5.7bn

EBITDA was reported at 450 to 460m - if we can be top end of that it would help and certainly an increase above it very favourable

Order book was a 6.2bn, I don't recall seeingany really significant new wins this year (Shell was an extension which may help) - so I'm not expecting great news there.

Where I am expecting some better news is on those areas which can be managed byt eh CFo, where the CFO can provide direction on how things are accounted for. To that end I would hope that they can report anticipated lower end negative free cashflow, that would make a massive difference. A big current impact will be the costs of the Deloitte consulancy piece, and getting this completed will be key. If the pension surplus can be taken earlier this would be be a big boost.

We know that tehre are some disposals being considered, I anticipate myself that these will be twin tracked at present, For instance there will be parts of th ebusiness which Sidara won't be interested in eiether, so if those can be accelerated then it would make a real difference to net cashflow this year.

In terms of cost savigngs operationaly I would be amazed if Deloitte hadn't spotted some of these themselves - they will no doubt make it a money making exercise for themselves, but if there is any low hanging fruit, it will be seized upon.

In essence I'm expecting an uptick once results are released. There will be a big number in relation to previosu year write-offs, but the current SP will have that already priced in.

"Do not underestimate human psychology and communication within this" this speaks volumes to why there is a problem, look at how poorly the BOD communicate. Lack of comms from them, and then poor cooms when they do present. The [resentation back in November was a car crash, and demonstrated perfectly that the BOD can't communicate effectively with the market. I'm hopeful that the new CFO will be supporting them with this.

You'd think somehting like that would have some impact on SP, but no chance :-(

Pete, why Thursday?