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I ran some numbers on what Q4 could look like and concluded the following.

DD c. 20% growth in sales = 3.5m

Nutricircle having done 225,000 in Sept when throttled back is 675,000 in Q4 without any growth. I think 20% growth is easily achievable = c. £800k

Boop over 18 days was £25,000 which over 3 months would be £130,000. Only just getting started but Christmas is coming and the interest is enormous. Nutricircle did 10x its initial efforts between Q2 and Q3. Boop is far sexier with bigger ticket items. 10x would be £250,000 but I think it can easily hit £350,000 given the fact that in 18 days they did 71% of what Nutricircle did in nearly 3 months.

Total so far = £4.65m

Let's explore 12,000 units for $99 shared at 50% and 80% sold would be c. £360k for Huddle.

Total = £5m.

That is my minimum outcome but the metrics and the evidence being shared say interest could be much higher, especially at Boop. But in my opinion, the above total carries Huddle into a sizeable operating profit or even possibly actual net profit for the period. It's Q4 which would be expected to be bumper but that sort of result I am sure gets this stock noticed.

Great info once again thank you. Yet more evidence pointing towards significant growth in revenues in Q4 and beyond.

2 divisions already contributing operating profits and the third Boop is so exciting that I have no fears it won't also get there over the next 3-6 months. This is why I keep saying this stock is an absolute gem at these levels.

If the wider market needs to see that in more detail in January so be it but this can multibag from here in 2025 so the applied patience should be well invested.

The report was never necessary which is why it was never conducted the first time around.

But there were problems throughout 2019 and 2020 which eventually led to a court issuing an order for the indigenous ECI study.

That process has taken a very long time due to the many tribes involved etc. When I analysed it all I did not find anything that sat outside what Serabi had told the markets but clearly, there was some investor massaging going on but nothing out of the norm for publicly listed companies.

The results of the ECI are clear that there is very limited effect on the indigenous tribes. The fact that a new trial license was Ok'd by the same public prosecutor and the courts also means relations have improved much more and Serabi's actions are in line with their demands. But as I say there is no evidence that I can find that the authorities that are responsible for the license being issued have had any issue with Serabi at any time. But they require a fully signed-off ECI before they can issue the license and right now that looks to be about the process and time required (which is seemingly forever) rather than any hidden problem or failure.

If you don't believe me then read the report yourself.

Page 15 translation,

"The Study of the Indigenous Component is necessary when there are enterprises in

a distance less than or equivalent to 10km from territories of traditional populations, as provided for in the

guidelines of Interministerial Ordinance No. 60/2015, which deals with the licensing process

environment at the federal level and the actions of the intervening bodies. The Joker Project has a distance

equivalent to 11.9km from the limit of the Baú TI, which is characterized as an Area of ​​Indirect Influence of the

undertaking in question."

https://v2.xingumais.org.br/sites/default/files/ficha-tecnica//node/237/edit/2024-08/2024-07-31-%20Estudo%20do%20Componente%20Ind%C3%ADgena-%20ECI.pdf%20%282%29.pdf

Also here is a link to one of the indigenous tribes pages which gives a full timeline of events to date. They aren't always 100% accurate in their wording but you can see the history of this license issue and that it follows what Serabi has ben reporting. I did a very detailed assessment many months ago before committing to raising my stake in SRB. But others have to do their own work and decide for themselves.

https://xingumais.org.br/obra/mineracao-coringa-chapleau

It is also worth pointing out that the LI application for Coringa has never been about any authority or organisation associated with mining or license authorisation having a problem with the Coringa mine.

It was always about the Indigenous study and protection of their lands even though they sat outside the 10km radius applied to such a study's requirements.

This context is important to understand rather than simply being willing to say something has failed. When Serabi initially had this issue they reported that the mining agencies were on their side. Also, the original environmental study and indeed approval of the license was associated with a full mine with a processing plant. The trial license approach is much simpler with any reported potential contamination issues removed because they have been transferred to Pailto.

That all said it is an unconventional way to go about things but an understandable one as Serabi has focused on ensuring that Coringa remains operational and the business profitable. But the unconventional approach understandably leads to doubt and concerns until it is rubber-stamped.

You are correct it was not mentioned in the video presentation by the IR man nor was the language used associated with the company having an issue either.

I know the history of the license well and it has always been about the public prosecutor successfully approaching the courts to ensure that Serabi conducted a study on the effects of their Coringa mine on the indigenous population. If you read the report that was produced after what was a very long and difficult process (mainly because the tribes won't have anything to do with each other) it is clear that Coringa activity are all conducted away from this land. The main highway access from the mine even runs directly away from their land. No traffic has to pass through there at all.

Following the completion of the report the public prosecutor and the same court signed off on the first trial license extension (Jan 2024). That is a clear sign of support for the project and an indication that the questions raised have been answered satisfactorily.

The extension to 100,000 tons was last mentioned in the AGM statement. I have had contact with a shareholder who met with Serabi at the end of Sept and was told to their face that they have the 100,000 ton agreement in place. I have not heard it directly myself.

The other thing to consider here is that Serabi could not be stating they are heading for a very good Q3 production result (late Sept) or hitting guidance (38,000 oz) unless Coringa is supplying ore beyond the 50,000 tons limit. This is because H1 saw them almost at the limit already.

So either they have an agreement in place to transport the additional tonnage or they are in breach of their license. Anything is possible but conducting such a significant PR campaign as seen in the last few weeks (their own decision) knowing they are operating illegally would be a super stupid move.

So would operating outside of their license given what they have been through these last 2 years or so courts wise etc.

So I take on board what has been written here and I agree that risk remains until it is written in black and white but one also has to assess what events on the ground and through Serabi means as well. Still, clarification from the company would be the best course of action.

The recent Serabi presentation (posted here) dealt with the current status of the full LI. So not an elephant in the room and no doubts further update will be given (as it always is) in the upcoming quarterly update.

The trial license has been extended to 100,000 tons of transportable ore which covers the expansion to 60Koz. I havent seen this reported but it has been confirmed in investor meetings + the latest investor webinar presentation.

In the same webinar we were also told that they expect the full license in Q4/early 2025. The September presentation that accompanied the above stated clearly on two slides that the final permit is pending. In the presentation we were told that it sits with the authorities who can be slow and only so much pressure can be applied by Serabi.

Whilst it remains a risk until issued the management team were keen to point out that the trial license can be extended again if it were ever necessary to do so in c. 3 years. But again i repeat the expectation is that the full license will be issued.

Worth noting they have been in production for a good couple of years now at Coringa with no known complaints. Additionally, the whole issue around the permit came from a desire to protect indigenous populations near by. It was never a concern for the authorities who are responsible for licenses which is why they have not only secured a trial license renewal but also a doubling of the tonnage. So risk yes but it shouldn’t be overplayed.

I see no reason why Rudyard would be delayed and the company has never tied the two drills to each other. Separate rig and the slot to drill was hard earned. This is an exploration company whose fortunes rely on successful drilling. So the best thing they can do is get on with it.

Also, whilst posting it should be noted that past helium plays in Montana have demonstrated that drilling can continue in December so time shouldn’t be a problem either (see Avanti).

I’m with Kaeren. This is a market that is so fearful of the downside and so caught up with ultra short term thinking that it is prepared to ignore any elements that de-risk the longer term outcomes.

One way or another this Ingomar play gets tested and it shouldn’t cost investors any more dilution to achieve that. That is all that truly matters here. Therefore, the re-entry is effectively a free hit but the market only wants to see it as a risk. Of course failure to achieve a successful re-entry will create volatility and some are here for that and waiting to see if it happens is no bad move. But with Rudyard due to commence shortly after the reentry update + a very good chance they get this dove first time I am happy to wait it out because over longer timelines my risk is lower than the market is pricing things at the moment.

Thanks for the feedback.

I think this is a little gem of a company. The only thing it is missing is wider interest so the lack of broker coverage plans for this year is a little disappointing. But I remain convinced that the numbers will do the talking with Q4 being the big milestone in early January. Demonstrate a move to profitability and no need for further dilutive equity and the valuation will be transformed here.

Here's my thread on the subject and the risks surrounding STX and thede-risking affect the AOP monies have on the SWK finance covenants.

STX is one or two positive quarterly updates away from glory and a serious re-rate although each positive quarter should see the valuation increase.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1843213037391749296

I absolutely agree with the comments on the wording because it is borderline unprofessional but let's be clear here one or two deliberately spiteful reviews answered discourteously don't de-rail the business or indeed the investment here.

The key insight is that orders at Discount Dragons are surging and that opens a window to the possibilities for revenue growth in Q4. They are what will move this share price well beyond one to two trust pilot responses especially when they are running at 4.5 stars. Great early insight thank you for sharing.

From the Cavendish Broker note dated 3rd July.

"We have assumed that the AOP payment is recognised via the revenue line as milestone income, as it would have been had the previous payment from ASK Pharma for China approval in 2026 been made."

I very much doubt this assumption has been made without guidance from the company.

That would mean $5.7m in additional Q3 2024 revenues.

This was my thinking and I am delighted to see that the broker thinks the same. If indeed correct then by my calculations even based on conservative growth this completely removes the risk around potential covenant breaches and so new equity for that reason. I wonder how many out there in the general market appreciate that.

Cash is good to get them through until H2 2025. Scrips look set to keep growing and confidence is there that realised prices will continue to increase over time. $220-$220 stated as being achievable over the next 8-18 months.

Thank you.

I would encourage you to ask about broker coverage which is non-existent at the moment + plans to market the business with investors because the message needs putting out there better.

I would argue that their core USP is saving people money on well-known brands. The save the planet element is an angle but I would be careful highlighting to customers that I was selling them food saved from waste. Cosmetics is different.

At this sort of valuation and in this financial market Huddle can achieve a substantial re-rate by simply reaching profitability without the need to call on more equity. My take is that the market has seen the cash drop in Q3 and assumed that means money is tight and barely paid attention to the investor call which gave a much better explanation of where the business is at.

I was told that the head office overhead element of the admin costs is c. £1.2m per annum at the adjusted EBITDA level.

Discount Dragons and Nutricircle have already moved into operating profit and are covering their element of the admin costs and beginning to eat into that remaining overhead. I feel extremely confident that Boop will join them soon enough.

The recent inventory purchases at good prices lend themselves to greater margins being achieved. Increased future buying power which should see incremental increases will also help push up their gross margins. Shared warehousing costs and a move to a centralised postage and packaging contract with Royal Mail will also drive down costs and push up margins. So there are plenty of markers supporting an improvement in the overall gross margin.

But even if they only achieve a group gross margin in line with Discount Dragons Q2 20.9% then at similar marketing and warehouse costs they require c. £4.4m in quarterly revenues to reach a cash positive position.

We were told Q3 would achieve c. £3.5m. However, it was hindered by throttled back orders at Nutricircle, slowed marketing, website changes, holiday season and minimum order size alterations at DD and Boop only traded 18 days.

My view is that Q4 will easily push past that figure (helped a little by Let's Explore sales). Then it'll be the question of how much of the seasonality trading can be retained in Q1 2025 and beyond. I suspect Boop will expand quickly enough to fill any voids left by DD but there is a good chance that revenues at all 3 now kick on.

Reaching profitable trading and demonstrating substantial quarterly growth should capture the market's attention. What that will also do is give Huddle more purchasing power, and more marketing power to push things on in 2025.

The market is completely asleep to what is a great growth story here in a market segment that is only set to grow further as UK government twists the knife on the cost of living for many parts of the UK population.

We are 3 days into a week when mobilisation was forecast to occur. I look forward to rig mobilisation being announced (assuming it comes). Perhaps then focus can return to what this company is trying to achieve and not all the nonsense that insists on existing in its absence.

I read this board only when I can because much of what is written is simply repetition.

What I don't understand is the focus on the re-entry at Clink #1 as if it is some sort of binary event- Their confidence aside the company has staked out another drill location as a back up and has by my calculations around $5m of funds post this re-entry to drill that location if necessary. The previous drill cost them around $2m. Management overheads are minimal and so not a risk so where is the problem other than time required to organise and execute?

One way or another HEX is going back into Ingomar and we will find out what is there.

Afternoon everyone,

I am a new holder here having started building up a stake over the last couple of weeks. I think this is a gem of a business which fits very well into the cost of living angle that is and will continue to be in play for the coming years.

Food and cosmetics will outlast any recession and the harder things get for people the more likely they are to turn to such offerings. I already think we are beyond the point of people caring about what others think. Money is already tight for large swathes of society not just the working classes and if there is a saving to be had whilst still gaining access to one's favourite brands then it will be taken by more than enough people.

I believe Q3 was an outlier for Discount Dragons due to very good reasoning (see my threads below) and Q4 is set up to be a bumper outcome. Nutricircle looks set for continued eye-catching growth also but as others have said it is Beauty Boop that could be the real winner here.

It's not just women wearing and using these products these days but they remain the majority of the market and from my experience, they don't ever remove such products from their budgets. But if they can get them for a better price then they will and they will buy in quantity. So it is a very exciting business and could demonstrate a substantial rise in its trading in Q4 even though it would represent just the first full quarter of trading since the re-launch.

Worth noting that Nutricircle did £35,000 in the 11 weeks or so of Q2 that traded after the acquisition. Boop did 71% of that in just 18 days. Nutricircle had an established customer base and greater trust in its service. Boop had none of that.

Nutricircle is a specialist product website where as Boop is big brand cosmetics at big discounts.

Nutricircle managed to increase revenues 10x in Q3 vs the above figure. So what can Boop do in its first full quarter?

Early January should see the Q4 figures. I expect interest to build into it and if the numbers are as good as I believe and operating profits can be seen to be eating well into the remaining head office overhead then a substantial re-rate can come after that. Why? Because it'll be about pricing in future growth whilst removing fear over funding.

I have also had direct contact with management and the fully funded messaging was stated once again in their reply.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1841411742900846714

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1841481063006155177

I've added to my thread this morning after listening to the call again.

I posted a number of questions to the team ahead of the meeting and one of them was around Mistral profitability at launch. That was answered with a resounding "Yes, but not in the breadth of market that we ultimately want to be able to address profitability."

I think this is a really key point that the market hasn't understood and the Invinity team really needs to sell better.

The point being that there are scenarios already where Mistral can be sold at a positive margin and that will improve through the initial steps to automate production lines and shift component production to China etc. But the slower roll out and is as much about having an eye on the larger prize (+1,000MW projects mentioned be it they are several years away) as it is about front end profitability.

Up until this meeting, the market was thinking purely about this being a case that Mistral is loss-making and until they get the costs down it won't help them reduce cash spend. That clearly isn't the case although they need to focus in on projects in FY24/FY25 that can deliver positive margins and grow Mistral roll out in the field.

Also, Cap and floor isn't stopping the 18m of UKIB funds from being applied it is more a case that they are still finalising what sort of project(s) they wish to go for. The funding is more about setting the scene for future larger cap and floor projects rather than any direct regulatory effect. That was news to me and perhaps progress on this front will come over the next few months. Such a project win(s) could lead to a significant uplift in FY25 revenues which is clearly what IES management has now set themselves up for.

Setting the bar low and then beating the forecasts is the new policy in play which is why I think the share price has there or thereabouts now seen its worst days.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1841390374855516405