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When I say a process already being known I also include what those assets are likely to be.

The percentages say these entities are here for the tax losses only. ECR assets could become of interest as they look more closely at the business but I lean towards that being more unlikely at this time than likely. But I could be wrong.

That is an interesting thought about separate deals that I hadn't considered.

What I would say in response is that whilst they are separate tax years they all fall under the one company's umbrella. That being Mercator Gold Australia Pty Ltd. So I question how separate deals could be put together when it is one subsidiary company that holds all the tax losses. Separating them sounds too messy to me.

From the RNS 9th Oct.

"Any sale of the tax losses would be coupled with a disposal of certain non-core assets of the Company."

What is deemed a non-core asset at the time of any sale is for the company to decide. But the fact that this statement has already been made lends itself to a process already being known. Hence why I talked about the legal groundwork from Argonaut earlier.

Also, I think it is important to be open to the idea that any deal won't be settled 100% in cash although I am sure the ECR team will have a minimum upfront amount they wish to achieve. Part of the purchase price could be in shares if the buyer is a publicly listed company or deferred payments attached to future tax loss realisation. Not saying it happens but it is important to think outside the box. But my gut says it will be front-loaded. This business needs this cash injection to realise its goals and so a little ground given on price may go a long way to ensuring that the deal is what ECR needs it to be. Again, just an opinion and so by no means a certainty.

The more players there are at the table the better a deal looks for ECR both in its makeup and likelihood.

I'd say they are now 5-6 days into this given the fact that re-entry looked ready to go on 11th Oct at c. 2pm UK time.

If so they are getting to the money end of things.

It is important to temper expectations because building hopes up that it is a done deal within a couple of weeks leads to disappointment and allows those who would spread doubt. Yes it could be a first come first served approach but given the fact they have attracted public companies who make enough profit to warrant going after A$75m of tax losses it is more likely that guarantees have been given over time to carry out due diligence. It is unprofessional to allow such companies to spend their resources on a process that is then closed before they have had time to complete it. That is why deadlines are introduced so everything is upfront before they begin. That doesn't mean they get given all the time in the world. I think ECR want this process done quickly and certainly before their funds dwindle too far. I also got the feeling that management believes they can get this done within that period whatever it may be.

That said I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more sign-up before we are done.

In the meantime, I take great heart from the fact that ECR feel able to commit funds to drill Tambo and the new geologist whilst wanting to keep something back for Blue Mountain. Be it that its costs over the coming few months should be fairly limited.

I do think ECR has reached a very good place on this and that they know just how important a tax loss deal will be if it is the next funding influx into the business. So I would think all efforts are focused on that outcome.

No problem. You do need to research the company properly yourself. Don't just follow what someone else says.

I believe this can do very well and I back that up with data but it doesn't mean I am right.

I would be careful thinking that the tax loss sale will be concluded soon.

Last week the first 3 parties were stated as signing up in the last week or two. I am sure Argonaut has done a lot of the legal groundwork ahead of signing these parties up for NDAs but the parties themselves will have a due diligence process to go through and that takes time.

The big positive is that there are so many of them. That indicates that not just ECR and Arganout believe a sale is possible and the chances of it happening are now greatly increased. It may be that they are still in the sign-up period and then when this closes a deadline for intention to submit an offer or actual submission itself will be applied. How long this needs to be is anyone's guess.

Argonaut looks like a professional outfit to me and so I expect the process to be well run. But I also expect it to take a little time. Right now an offer(s) prior to Christmas would be a great outcome but it is only my opinion. I may be completely wrong and it is a first come first served approach but the adding of the additional company today says to me it'll be carried out along the lines of a deadline for offers.

Can the existence of competition expedite things? Yes, that is possible. But I still think a process will be followed.

The most important thing front end is there are multiple parties interested.

Morning.

Here are two threads that I produced on HUD in early Oct. Perhaps they will help get you started. You can also watch their latest investor presentation and Q&A on Investor meet.

I am also a relatively new investor here having been attracted to the market they are focusing on (which I believe will be a big winner over the coming years as the cost of living continues to bite) + the immediate growth potential that can come as the company moves into profit which itself could come as early as Q4 2024/Q1 2025. I do not believe that the market is pricing HUD for that potential.

I wish you well whatever you decide.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1841411742900846714

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1841481063006155177

Looks like the Nutricircle warehouse move took place last weekend with renewed marketing now kicking in.

This means that the costs and sales growth advantages can kick in nicely and early in Q4.

Lots of lovely insights into the business's development.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1846473425130303549

Beauty Boop followers on Facebook now at +1,500 which is a c.70% increase in just one week.

The biggest hindrance here now is the concerns over state interruptions and demands + Segilola mine life extension.

Both are being tackled but will take time. In the meantime, despite the adjusted guidance which in the future needs to be bettered (i.e. don't promise too much) they are making a ton of cash.

THX has questions to answer over the state's quest for payments and production at Segilola but they are also forecasting an H2 AISC of between $800 - $1,000/oz.

At 44,000 oz of revised H2 production that would generate gross margins of between $66m and $75m at $2,500/oz. We are currently over $150 above that level. Current MC = $134m

I would hardly call that poor.

If the management team hadn't been changed then I wouldn't be here and I believe it is important to recognise that when highlighting previous quarterly performance and promises. The new CFO started in January this year. His first real influence on things was Q2.

I also think we have to recognise some of the reasoning behind the poorer-than-expected sales and pricing performance that was seen up until Q2 2024. That does not excuse management failings. I mentioned these things because there is solid reasoning to believe that they were obstacles that required solutions and that their removal should ensure future performance is better. Hence why I mentioned prior authorisations. Why they weren't thought of earlier I don't know but a solution was found and that appears to have greatly helped Q2 2024 which we are led to believe was the first real quarter where the team dedicated to their usage was in place. We have to recognise these chnages when thinking about both the past and the future.

That was my post in a nutshell. I did not talk up big quarterly movements.

What I said is "This is not to say that they will suddenly blow it out of the park. More that decent enough growth in all metrics has a very good chance of coming through..."

I absolutely agree that STX overplayed their 2023 growth story and failed to deliver. But I also recognise that this product is as much about market understanding, trust and therefore time in the market as it is about anything else. Meaning that the results we see today are bound to differ from those seen in earlier periods.

Whether they will be enough is still to be seen. Q2 is just one good quarter of improvement. More quarters are needed for a pattern but the material improvements made by STX + the management changes have me feeling more confident about future quarterly performance.

Great someone dares to see that the future looks more positive than the past and the only answer is this paid ramper nonsense.

My post clearly focused on answering your comments: "STX has rarely had 2 or 3 good quarters in a row." It was not attempting to capture everything that has happened since launch. I know the history here because I was holding the baby when it went south and it cost me. Even with all of the shortfalls, STX maintained momentum in sales and pricing has finally shown signs of moving meaningfully in the right direction. We don't need to debate this anymore.

In addition, if the AOP milestone payment is indeed booked as revenues in Q3 then they have a greater cash runway and space to breathe on the SWK finance covenants.

That gives investors the chance to judge their progress over not just this quarter but potentially the next 3 before thoughts need to turn to any further finance. I think the market is beginning to get this.

I don't see how any worthwhile read-across can be made at this stage. I also disagree at least in part with your point on inconsistent quarters.

The Viatis partnership only began on 1st Jan 2023 and the full sales team wasn't in place until early May that year. So we have had a maximum of 6 quarters reported the first two of which were heavily affected by the sales team upheaval. I could push this further becasue the messaging from the company was that the bedding in of the sales team took much longer which affected their ability to spend time on insurers. Hence why we had the debacle around the prior authorisations which we were told required a new focused team that would be in place by Q1 2024. So again more interruptions which undermine our ability to employ previous quarterly data to project performance into the future.

However, out of all those quarters we have only seen sales fail to grow in just one quarter (Q1 2024) which was put down to the interruptions in Texas. The minimum QoQ outside of this has been 22.7%. That's healthy.

Pricing is something else but again I point towards prior authorisations and company focus on this which only properly kicked in this year. But also the further the business gets into the rollout of the product the more it is understood and the deeper the relationships go with the insurance providers. This is all capable of improving the financial metrics which the new BOD have stated they believe will happen in H2 2024 and beyond.

I also think we have a better management team now with a CFO who looks to have a good handle on all aspects of the finances. They still have to prove themselves fully but that is also a positive support for future quarterly outcomes.

This is not to say that they will suddenly blow it out of the park. More than decent enough growth in all metrics has a very good chance of coming through which further reduces the risk allowing future potential to be factored into the valuation.

Loving the use of language.

There's little doubt in their minds what they can achieve with this re-entry.

https://x.com/HelixExp/status/1844713213406978326

In all my years of investing, I have been called many things but a scumbag. That's nasty.

I don't need to defend myself. If you want to label then label me.

Know this though. I have been invested here since December 2023 and have built up a sizeable position because I could see that this particular BOD coupled with the potential in the assets were capable of the sort of developments seen this week.

Nothing anyone here says can change where this company ultimately heads. My bet is they deliver on a significant scale and that will likely take a good 12 months to come through. I intend to be here for that and when my target is hit I will sell just like everyone gets to do without informing me. In the meantime, if I have something useful to contribute I will.

One other thing worth noting is that Blue Mountain has a 12km strike length which has barely been tested.

The initial resource will likely focus on what they know so far but that fact should not be forgotten.

Ok, two thoughts on that.

1. Trench 11 already produced 4.2 g/t visible gold and logic says to me that is where they would focus their 1,000 tons of trial extraction (if indeed possible to do). That said the size of the bulk samples isn't stated.

2. The sluice box concentrate was produced on-site. It was only in the labs that it was measured for gold content.

Recoveries wouldn't be as stable but perhaps there is also the possibility of introducing a small-scale pilot plant to increase this under the guise of testing/trial extraction. If as I say the final parcel gold can be sold under an exploration license.

We will of course find out in time but this is an angle that has legs and in comparison to the current MC and likely cost to initiate production at Blue Mountain a material opportunity.

Hi, TalkingSense thanks for the engagement. What's your thought process on that 0.5-1 g/t range?

Trench 11 recovered 192 g/t in concentrate.