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Morning all,

I am just picking up on this ANM info and have opened the link but it does not lead me to meeting No.67. Is there something else I need to do to access it? Thank you in advance.

I had some communication from the company after raising a question about when the drilling will start. Reading between the lines it sounded like they wanted/needed to see what the results of the November elections look like. But also said that in the meantime there was much to be getting on with. If so then the communication on this has been poor.

Make of that what you will.

New interview with StockBox who state this on Blue Mountain in their tweet.

"Plans are advancing for a sustainable gold recovery operation at Blue Mountain, leveraging gravity circuits to minimize environmental impact. The project may reach production readiness in early 2025, providing ECR with near-term revenue potential."

I need to listen to the interview in full but that lights the touchpaper if indeed true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckDo4PLlwMg

I agree with you TalkingSense. I just didn't want to get too carried away and throw flippant comments out without justification. This is all about staged progress which starts with a tax loss deal which I agree isn't there yet. But it also makes sense to start thinking about valuation potential when it and Blue Mountain are progressed to the point the BOD has indicated they can be.

I really like Lolworth and yes I can see a natural path to it being progressed with both potential tax funds and Blue Mountain production. We also shouldn't rule out Ballieston which has a drill permit application in process and unlike Lolworth can be drilled this Winter (Victoria based). The same goes for Tambo if this initial programme is good enough. What we should also not forget is that Mike Parker is now in change of assessing future drill targets which should bring a lot of confidence to the future choices that will be made.

These are just two examples of what can drive value here when the market sees that initial production can be reached and these other projects are then financed. So I am in no way writing off 3p a share but breaking it down into stages and milestones which can always influence my own targets along the way.

The parameters for the tax losses are set around the total value which Arganout said to be A$18-$20m which equates to £9.18 to £11.22m. For ease, I have been using the mid-range of A$20m which is £10.2m.

Argonaut has been quoted as saying that 50% is recoverable = £5.1m.

Nick Tulloch said the buyer normally gets a bit more due to taking more risk. I also think Argonaut will receive a fee of some sort related to the final result. Hence why I have been using £3m to £4m as a range (It was £2.5m but these interviews have made me feel more confident about it being higher).

For me, caution is always better which is why I have employed £3m for my earlier scenario. But to be honest it could come in a bit lower and it would still be an amazing result because of the approach of this current BOD to spending the cash they hold.

One has to be careful throwing big numbers around because it can lead to disappointment when they fall short. Those pushing them are for me thinking of short-term use and abuse as opposed to being invested. I love this play for what these tax losses can do for Blue Mountain and perhaps Lolworth and intend to stick around for that pathway to be revealed or even implemented. I will judge that on the SP movement and the content of any plan.

What I would just add though is that the interviews yesterday certainly made me feel much better about my figure and if it is beaten then fantastic. I will gladly hold my hand up and say with glee that I was wrong.

So you know what they were expecting then?

In the Andrew Scott interview yesterday, Nick Tulloch also said that it is usual for the buyer to get a bit more because they are taking more of the risk.

However, I never said that would be the final figure. I was merely pointing out an achievable scenario that alongside Blue Mountain can get this stock to +1p. Quite frankly I don't need to get bogged down with the exact sum. First and foremost I want to establish how likely a deal is and that it will be large enough to satisfy the needs of what are at least two projects now demand. Yesterday's interview went a long way towards achieving that.

I feel very confident that Blue Mountain will deliver a larger resource and a low-cost plan for production. So this is all about the tax losses and I would be delighted if they could beat my figure. But my point was that they don't need to.

Many will trade the spike but I am sure that a more patient approach is the right one here.

Upon reflection, my 3-4p comment was overstated.

With a good tax loss result (say c. £3m), a larger than expected Blue Mountain initial resource (say 200 Koz), and a low-cost production cost plan, we should be trading at +1p a share. What production then looks like (cost, output per annum, total ownership etc) and the financing path to realisation will decide the next leg up.

That last interview gave great insight because it demonstrated that the tax loss deal is looking like a pure cash one. I have talked about shares or staged payments etc which now may not be required.

More importantly, it showed how focused ECR are on Blue Mountain and showed belief that the 100 Koz resource can be improved upon. Any improvement would deliver a big project valuation number and if it comes with a low-cost production method (again hinted at in the interview) then the market will respect that valuation figure even more. All that is supported by a high gold price that so far hasn't assisted ECR's valuation. But demonstrate that production is much closer (possibly 2025) and then it should start to be factored in. Remember too this is Australia, One of the best mining jurisdictions on the planet.

The section of this interview on Blue Mountain beautifully sums up my point from this morning.

Without doubt the tax losses are the initial valuation key here but it is what they open up that should be getting us the most excited.

At 100Koz Blue Mountain is worth over $250m and the man in charge is looking very confident that they can deliver a much bigger resource. It could easily push past $0.5bn and come with a low cost well supported (landowner on board and putting his equipment to work on this = lower initial costs) production plan that is already partially funded (tax losses). It is that detail that can see this stock go from 0.5p to 3-4p and they really aren’t that many steps away from it all.

https://smallcappix.com/blogdetail?id=42

Morning all,

It is important not to forget Blue Mountain here. The next steps were deemed to be desk top related which indicates relatively low cost. We were also told that they weren't going to "dilly dally"on this and "we don't intend spending weeks and months and years trying to work out where we are going to go with the project."

The next step should be an estimated resource possibly inferred and then if deemed sizeable enough then a cost plan. The resource element could be very interesting given we are talking about up to a 12km strike length. Be it not all of that would likely be included in the initial assessment but what it does say is that an economic resource is likely with gold prices so high. When that resource comes in then that could well mark a significant further trigger point for the valuation. But I am not ruling out a much bigger initial resource being reported and that could be a significant valuation driver followed by a cost plan that is hopefully supported by the tax loss cash.

The company under exclusivity has shown "a very very serious interest."

"I'm confident that we will get a positive outcome for shareholders and relatively quickly."

Additional interest received beyond the 4 parties under NDA.

"We've battered around some early figures which are substantial."

This deal "doesn't stop unsolicited offers" from other parties.

What more could we possibly ask for at this stage?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVCmhON_5Ms

What this exclusivity agreement does is further confirm that a tax loss sale is possible and that was always the biggest hurdle here.

A deposit being paid, the statement that it "would be a material cash consideration" based on discussions so far plus the relatively short exclusivity timeline indicate that both parties know enough about the sale figure and that they aren't all that far apart.

I think what is also worth appreciating here is just how fast one party has moved to exclusivity given that they only signed an NDA in late Sept/early Oct. That demonstrates eagerness. Additionally ECR's/Argonaut's acceptance demonstrates (given the fact they have 3 other parties under NDA) that the figures being offered would be acceptable to ECR.

I also think the existence of 3 other parties keeps this bid honest and keen enough.

So on that basis, I believe this is now about the actual details of the deal as opposed to the question of one being concluded. What gets paid when and what needs to be done to achieve each payment?

What is clear though is that if/when it is concluded it will "deliver significant funds to the Company." Something the market seems hell-bent on ignoring for as long as it possibly can.

As suspected we weren't done. Major holders see value at 2.76p with another 3.72m snapped up from the director sale.

That reduces any potential overhang to c. 3.4m and again there may be one more yet.

@Genghis15 I tend to agree with you. That's why I highlighted the environmental element from the Osun State.

My point was merely that the tax and ownership cards have been played and they are limited in scope compared to what THX is earning right now. This does not mean that I agree with any payment being made before a thorough analysis of both the deals and the claims. THX settling outside of this process is a dangerous precedent.

But the environmental angle remains troubling until answered.

If he is that committed to you then what does that say about his drive to make this business a success?

Yet another signal of where this is heading.

A good night's sleep should never ben underestimated.

Somebody stole my capitals.

having read this statement from the osun state (which i do take with a pinch of salt) it is fair to assume that this current issue has minor financial impact on the thx business vs. its current earning capacity.

the tax bill even if proven to be correct (which i doubt) amounts to c. $2m.

the 5% of the tropical mines transaction for segilola is even less, although it would need to be clarified where the c. 5m shares in the company would come from.

by my calculations, the cash element of 5% of the tropical mines deal is around $90k.

as has been stated by someone else here this dispute should be with the recipients of the full tropical mines payments made at the time (see below). dragging thx into it and attempting to close the mine based on the value of the sums involved vs. what it would cost the business would surely be seen as unfair and unreasonable by a decent court. but perhaps that is the problem here.

i also question how quickly the osun state went to press and that it was even possible for a mediation team to conclude such things so soon after becoming involved. so again more salt is required.

however, if that is it. $2.1m and 5m shares then the shackles that have been placed on the sp for this issue far outweigh the benefits that $2,750/oz are delivering on a daily basis. yes, it could be the first of many attempts by osun state to extract monies from thx- the environmental question certainly requires a more solid answer but right now they have played their ownership and tax card and as things stand it's a ***** cat compared to the tiger we have been sold.

https://thorexpl.com/news/thor-announces-closing-of-acquisition-of-segilola-gold-project-and-private-placement-financing/

https://www.osunstate.gov.ng/2024/10/osun-thors-dispute-governor-adeleke-to-get-osun-shares-and-segilola-to-pay-taxes/

Good morning,

Good to see another large holder taking up the share sale slack. Post this announcement I have the potential overhang falling from c. 9.96m to 7.1m shares. But we may not be done yet.

This was my post from earlier in the month on this BB. With that little bit of insight, £800k could well be conservative for Nutricircle which is nothing else that compounds my argument over £5m and what that means for profitability vs, what is now an even cheaper MC.

I ran some numbers on what Q4 could look like and concluded the following.

DD c. 20% growth in sales = 3.5m

Nutricircle having done 225,000 in Sept when throttled back is 675,000 in Q4 without any growth. I think 20% growth is easily achievable = c. £800k

Boop over 18 days was £25,000 which over 3 months would be £130,000. Only just getting started but Christmas is coming and the interest is enormous. Nutricircle did 10x its initial efforts between Q2 and Q3. Boop is far sexier with bigger ticket items. 10x would be £250,000 but I think it can easily hit £350,000 given the fact that in 18 days they did 71% of what Nutricircle did in nearly 3 months.

Total so far = £4.65m

Let's explore 12,000 units for $99 shared at 50% and 80% sold would be c. £360k for Huddle.

Total = £5m.

That is my minimum outcome but the metrics and the evidence being shared say interest could be much higher, especially at Boop. But in my opinion, the above total carries Huddle into a sizeable operating profit or even possibly actual net profit for the period. It's Q4 which would be expected to be bumper but that sort of result I am sure gets this stock noticed.