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I have made several purchases this morning and if anything the offer is reducing each time. The seller looks to be very active answering every buy at the moment. It's a classic case of the MMs tapping a big pot that they know is available.

At this rate they could be gone sooner than I thought.

@Docisacoc I must admit I didn't see those go through. I do not believe there is another larger seller in the market right now, it's possible, but highly unlikely.

Therefore, with those 2 x 2.5m we are talking maximum 15m to go, but I still think the selling has increased off the back of the good news, of which there was very little during the last RH notifued selling period. The only real news was the production update on 9th August, which stimulated just 2.65m in volume.

So with that knowledge, I think we are rapidly aspproaching the last 10m. I am still buying at these levels because it's an absolute steal at 12.7p

Good morning all,

Looking back at the last two major holdings announcements for Mr Harbour, we can see that on 20th July he still had 44.78m shares.

By 6th Sept this had reduced to 34.32m, a reduction of 10.46m in 33 trading days. During that period some 71.43m shares were traded of which Mr Harbour was responsible for around 14.7%.

Thus he achieved on average circa 317,000 per trading day at an average full day volume of just 2.16m shares. That demonstrates keenness in my view.

Now that was during arguably the quietest part of the year, with August volume consistently reduced to pitiful levels and 11 of those trading days experienced less than 1m in trades.

Since the 6th Sept volume has picked up considerably. In the 21 tradings days since the last notification, total volume sits at 94.25m, which equates to an average of 4.48m per day.

Therefore, it is highly likely that Mr Harbour's volume has picked up as well.

However, even maintaining just the 14.7% figure would reduce his total number of remaining shares to 20.4m as of this morning. However, as i say, there is clear evidence that the selling has increased, driven in part by the original duster news, which saw 17.37m sold in just one day. Then we had 14.17m shares traded when the T-sands discovery was announced on 3rd Oct.

There is clear evidence that the seller (assumed to be RH only, given the extreme lows we are seeing and the recent very positive developments), has continued unabated during this period, meeting the majority of the positive buying with simply more selling. Therefore, the percentage attributed to this seller, in my view, needs to be increased, particularly when we consider just how quiet August was and how few buyers were in the market at that time.

A mere increase to 20%, would see RH's total shares reduce by 18.85m to circa 15.5m, which to me feels about right. With a production update, the spudding of Indico-1, further drilling news at Pintadillo-1, and a demonstration of the affect of the T-sands discovery on total production for October, all to come in the near term, I would think that Mr Harbour will be done sometime this month.

Then it's re-rate time.

@Margaret365 yes 5 x 30,000 and 2 x 100,000. Each 30,000 produced a lower buying price despite there appearing to be a lack of sells.

Like I say, it's in a holding pattern but is prepared to move (be it fairly limited) on good volume. With several pieces of news soon due, there may well be enough to see the seller off, then we will see what the market truly thinks about Amerisur's progress.

@Jointhedots I just picked up a sizeable number of shares into the close. Shares were not readily available so I had to buy in smaller quantities. Each buy was achieved for a lower price despite my willingness to keep buying, and in comparison to the volume, my buys were significant.

The seller is still here and has merely levitated to a new selling level, driven by yesterday's good news. One or more MMs are merely dipping into the pot as and when buying picks up. What that also says is that yesterday's increased volume most likely took a good chunk out of the remaining pot.

But they are running out of shares, and more positive news is on the way, so it is a matter of time because the fundamentals are there, it's purely temporary market dynamics.

As for the SP, that will look after itself once the market becomes more 'balanced'.

@jointhedots I don't believe it's so much a case of the market shrugging off the news, but more market dynamics taking control.

Yesterday's news is simply too good for the price not to begin moving north at the appropriate time. There are clearly forces at work that are resisitng the rise, be it RH or other sellers who simply see this as an appropriate time to leave the party.

The RNS is full of positive sentiment, which for me demonstrates a company keen for the market to see it's achievements in a better light. Oil is being immediately evacuated to the OBA pipeline, the observation period is very short, with plans to introduce a downhole pump to provide 'uplift to the well to 'optimise flow parameters'. Therefore, I expect a fairly rapid improvement on the 590 bopd.

The wording from John Wardle also indicates that there is a feeling with the company that there is much more to come from this discovery, they just cannot confirm it yet.

If the company can demonstrate a solid September performance in the region of 5,000 bopd, then we are talking 5,600 bopd and rising as we move through October at likely costs of around $18.50 and current realised prices of circa $78. That's serious money.

These results aren't being ignored, there is likely still a great deal of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a signal that this much discussed seller is clear, be it through time or continued good news. That for me will lead to a fairly sharp and sizeable re-rate because the performance in this pricing environment is more than good enough.

I am making hay whilst the selling sun shines because it's not going to last much longer.

@BeingPatient Indeed. For those who are perhaps relatively new to the BMN/vanadium story, it is important to appreciate just who UET are and who they are tied in with.

UET was founded in 2012 with the help of private investment from the Dalian Bolong Holding Group.

They have a strategic partnership with

1. Bolong New Materials, one of the world's largest known electrolyte producers ;

2. Rongke Power, the builder of the world's largest VRFB to date and who has ambitions to expand their own VRFB facility from the current 300MW upto 3GW per year.

That's GW not GWh.

Rongke Power was also started by Bolong Holding Group along with the Dalian Research Institute of Chemical Physics. Rongke Power and Balong New Materials are close neighbours in the Liaoning Province.

When we talk about BMN potentially signing off offtakes with China, it is important to remember that in UET Technologies, they are already essentially strategically tied to the largest VRFB manufacturer in the world, because UET Technologies are helping build the 200MW VRFB in Dalian.

Plus they are heavily backed by the very same company that owns Rongke Power.

Therefore, their exploits will already be well known to these industry players and if there is a deal to be done, I cannot help but feel it will be in this direction. V prices are astronomically high and BMN are offering long term guaranteed supply of electrolyte at cost effective prices.

It is rumoured that the dalian project was recently delayed due to a lack of available electrolyte. If that is the case and given the expansion expected in the market, Rongke Power are going to need substantial supplies of elecvtrolyte to meet their 3GW expansion plans.

Therefore, it is logical that they through UET, will look to corner a good proportion of the available electrolyte coming out of BE.

There is far mor to this story than just a strategic tie up with a VRFB manufacturer.

@BeingPatient The Scoping Study is a point in time and is based on the first 200MWh sized facility. At this point BMN need only discuss how they intend servicing the facility front end.

That said the Scoping Study is very clear. On page 11 it describes the two parts to the process and states that (part 1);

"For the purposes of this study, the detailed methodology for the purification of vanadium ore to produce
high purity vanadium pentoxide will not be discussed in detail as this process will not occur at the ELIDZ.
This process will occur onsite at the vanadium mine in Brits and the high purity vanadium pentoxide will be
transported to the ELIDZ facility."

So Vametco, at this stage, is absolutely 100% tied in with the electrolyte production at ELIDZ.

How that is affected by future expansion I don't know.

The comment you mention was noted in a Businesslive article (see below). It is the one curve ball, which right now I cannot fathom, and does indeed support your argument that the brownfield in question is at vametco itself.

But it is a press article and the company has never stated this themselves. That said the 10,000 mtv is there for all to see and to judge.

However, the Annual Report is clear and for me, directly opposes the message in that article. What I will say though is that once established, the electrolyte production will be directly tied into the Vametco facility, which won't be all too easily changed. How that then is further developed as the electrolyte facility is expanded, only time will tell, because Vametco is the home of the highly lucrative nitrovan process, which is right now well worthy of that V production too.

All in all it is a wonderful headache to have, because one way or another, BMN are going to expand to 10,000 mtv, and thta is the key message to take from all of this. It's not a thoight, or a wish, it is a planned expansion, which will enable BMN to keep making the same pevel of profits but at much lower V prices.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/mining/2018-06-07-bushveld-minerals-to-diversify-with-battery-production-powering-ahead/

Here is an extract from the 21st Nov 2017 RNS, which offers further evidence of Eskom's plans for the successful battery technology.

"Eskom will conduct testing, based on its existing measurement and verification approach, to validate the operational performance of energy storage systems in local conditions to demonstrate the abilities and maturity of the VRFB for broad commercial use in South Africa and across the African continent"

So the battery test is clearly pivotal and Eskom are looking ist 'commercial use' 'across the African continent.'

Thus the point I raised under item 5 in my last post, stands. Eskom could very well be that " electrical power developer(s) and producer(s) operating in Africa."

(2 of 2)

3. This is a key statement. The proving of said capabilities can only be centred around the Eskom battery. Therefore, the inclusion of the 'securing large scale mandates' within this particular bullet point (see page 22), is a direct link between the two. Yes other potential customers have access to the battery, but this battery is front and centre all about Eskom and proving that the BE led VRFB is the right technology for Eskom to take forward. The fact that it is backed by The IDC also speaks volumes about the push being made to sign up a locally assembled and beneficiated battery.

So for me that is where the first large scale mandates are coming from.

4. The next point is for me a development running parallel to the efforts centred around Eskom, and perhaps signals that there will be, at least at first, spare capacity at the electrolyte production. Thus an announcement on a take off outside of the Eskom deal, should be expected. This could very well be connected to UET and their Chinese partners at Rongke Power. In this market, a guaranteed cost effective supply of electrolyte is a big big story and Rongke have big big plans.

5. The last point brings it all to a head. The first part is a full strategic deal with UET, because it is their technology that will go into the early 'large scale mandates' and the assembled batteries at the ELIDZ, which renders the MOU obsolete. At the point BMN deliver the business case for BE, then a deal has to be done with UET, so the business relationship can be made public.

The second part for me definitely refers to Eskom, although there may yet be a third party involved under the 'electricity developers' label. However, Eskom have recently gone on record as saying they want to export their technology and electricity to the SADC, in order to diversify their markets and bolster their flagging SA sales.

All of those developments are highlighted as 2018 priorities and the culmination of those developments, will lead to the delivery of the business case.

The only known fly in the ointment is the delays to the demonstration battery. That could push the deliver of the BE story a little further down the road. However, BMN is running out of excuses not to start delivering the BE business case. It also very clear from the above plans, that the full 18 month demonstration period for the battery is something of a red herring, as the message is that the business case is coming in 2018, which was always at best within 6 months of the battery being deployed.

But even if the BE story runs a little bit longer, it is not about the exact timing, it is about what is coming. That list of 2018 priorities when coupled together and delivered to the market, with cash flows etc, will be a seismic development in the BMN story and the moment that BMN moves away from being just a miner of vanadium, towards being the world's first fully integrated vanadium platform.

(1 of 2)

@BeingPatient Looking further down your post, (and please I trust my view point is taken for exactly what it is, a view point and nothing else), I see you mention an electrolyte off take from Eskom.

I assume you mean a VRFB mandate.

BMN through BE has for some time being highlighting these large scale mandates,and I must to admit I simply cannot see past Eskom at this time. The size of the mandate may not be what really catches the eye at first because it may be relatively small scale. That's because BE has to build confidence in its ability to deliver these units in a timely and cost effective manner. That said, with the political will and support being shown, driven by The IDC, it could also be much bigger than I dare dream. As a caveat, I must say that Eskom could be a red herring at this juncture, but BE have thus far demonstrated no other avenues for business other than seeking deeper ties with IPP developers. So my percentages remain fixed on Eskom despite the supposed need to test and commission the battery at their facility.

That all said, there has to be something very big in the pipeline. The company has clearly stated in its Annual Report (page 22) that "in the second half of 2018" it expects to be able to "outline its business model, cash flow capabilities and valuation in Bushveld Minerals"

To do this the company states very clearly on the that very same page that it is ;

1. "working with the IDC to establish VRFB and electrolyte production in South Africa"

2. "delivering its first VRFB" "into Eskom"

Now here is the really big one ;

3. "Proving its capabilities and securing its position as a developer and integrator of utility scale energy storage projects by delivering its initial projects and securing large scale energy storage mandates in Africa;"

4. "Positioning itself as a key low cost electrolyte supplier and thus supporting the global industry while securing offtake agreements"

5. "Securing additional strategic relationships with downstream stakeholders in the global vanadium battery supply chain and electrical power developers and producers operating in Africa."

1. (see numbering above) There is more than enough evidence that BMN is far enough on with the electrolyte facility (buying the land), to have established the detailed costs for the electrolyte and the make up of the business in terms of The IDC and UET's involvement. After all, they control the vanadium supply.

2. The VRFB is delivered but it's commissioning has been delayed. Therefore, this is the one known fly in the ointment right now. The Annual Report was released at the end of June, so its a later development. That said I don't believe it will delay the announcement beyond this year.

@YTSS Yes it is very positive. would encourage you to read my post again and the context in which i discuss being careful.

I am talking about those that are attempting to bolster their shreholding by trading BMN. The pullbacks right now are getting smaller and smaller.

@BeingPatient Yes I did see your post but unfortunately was tied up with other matters last week.

I have to say I don't entirely agree with you. As I posted over the last few weeks, the words coming out of the company are very clear. The expansion from 5,000 mtv to 10,000 mtv will be through targeted brownfield opportunities.

Page 14 of teh December Annual Report states ;

"Through its expansion initiatives at Vametco, as well as targeted brownfield opportunities, the Company is looking to expand its production to 5,000 mtV by the end of 2019 and to more than 10,000 mtV in the medium term."

Now I will admit that said targeted brownfield opportunities could be further expansion at Vametco because it is, by rights, brownfield. However, the message has always been clear that Vametco is on a 3 phase expansion plan that culminates in 5,000 mtv production 'by' the end of 2019. So for me the first element of that statement is Vametco and no more.

In your post you stated "Fortune confirmed to me a while back that electrolyte production will come from new supply, ie, they won't divert material currently sold to steel producers."

I appreciate that you have spoken directly with FM, but that discussion must have taken place prior to phase 2 expansion of Vametco being completed. Therefore, at a very minimum phase 3 is deemed as new supply and is not currently being sold to steel suppliers. That additional production is expected some time in 2019.

Electrolyte production is also expected some time in 2019, for me late 2019, so there is currently no need to divert vanadium production away from Vametco. Nor when the time comes does Vametco need to tap into any production that is in the first 2 phases (3,750 mtv).

I was not there and you will know better than anyone the context of your discussion. But there is an answer to that statement from FM. The facility in its first phase will be 200MWh, so well within the capacity of the phase 2 expansion.

By the time they expand again, that targeted brownfield will be in play (if not before) and Vametco will be free to sell even more FeV to the vanadium hungry steel market.

@Sanchez599 I believe there are two things in play here, the signalled quarterly updates, which have for a while now proven to be the main updating mechanism for BMN, are encouraging holders to play the market a bit.

I have no problem with that, nor they or any other market mechanisms can prvent this juggernaut from pushing much higher when the time is right. What it also means is a great deal of the sells will turn into buys when the time is right.

My own thoughts are that whilst this play was perhaps ok for much of this year, the concertina affect of the newsflow, means that we are now entering a very busy period in this company's thus far short life, such that there is so much to be delivered, that the percentages start to work against that sort of call. My view only of course.

Secondly, I believe that following the strike and demonstrations at vametco, the market wants to see those Q3 results, in order to understand the true impact on the figures for this year. LTHs shouldn't have any cocnersn because there is ample expansion and pricing gains going on to render these affects pretty much meaningless. But for me there is still a healthy element of the market waiting on this informatiom.

Now again, in my humble opinion, investors should be careful, because the company is signalling that there is far more going on thah just a 3 phase expansion.

Note the wording in the Interims, which seems to have once again slipped through the net.

"While Vametco is already a low cost producer of vanadium, we believe potential exits to further improve its cost position by improving its productivity. To this end we will be developing and implementing several productivity initiatives, in addition to the expansion plans announced to date, to enhance Vametco's performance across the production process. We expect to see the positive effects of these initiatives in the coming year."

Vametco is already benefiting from a circa $2,550 saving per mtv in H2, just because of the weakened Rand. There are then of course the additional savings that the phase 2 and 3 expansions will bring, plus Brits when it is ready to mine.

But on top of all of that, the company has already instigated further production initiatives too.

Vametco right now is producing 1 mtv at circa $17,600 based on the H1 average price. So its already very low. But its going to go a lot lower, which at 5,000 mtv production brings a considerable uplift in profitability.

@Pigpen morning.

On the spot price question, it is clearly evident from BMN's production updates and interims, that they are achieving near as damn it the mid price. My suspicion is that this is caused by the premium that nitrovan delivers.

It is an advantage that is often talked about but perhaps not truly appreciated. Therefore, whilst mastermines may be correct about there being a discount, in the world of BMN it doesn't really exist. Therefore, the mid price can be followed and employed as a base case for the profitability of the company. That is something Largo cannot boast.

Evening all. Could someone please post the page for the Corbine Cup, I cannot seem to place my hands on it. Thank you in advance.

I appreciate that there are a great number of LTHs here who have been beaten down by the past performance of the management team, and I do not wish to disrespect their position in any way.

I can only speak of my own history and stance. I have been in and out of Amerisur over the last few years, starting around about the time of the OBA pipeline construction. Whilst Amerisur has never made me rich it also never made me poor, so my mind is very much open to the potential from these levels, though it is not blinkered.

Whatever the view on management that runs through this BB, for me, today is a major turning point in the immediate fortunes of this company. I could previously argue against most negative points but the lack of successful drilling was always an argument that one could not entirely see off.

What today's result has done is is taken that argument off the table. Yes the company still has much to do to deliver more resounding confidence, but first and foremost they have a healthy new discovery with extensive upside, just as Brent is surpassing $85. It is also not lost on me just how quickly this result was delivered post the N-sands disappointment, a fact that again counters the sentiment that the BOD are on some sort of go slow.

Add this to the last reported production figure and the company is at roughly 5,500 bopd even without further uplift from Platanillo 22, plus now further drilling of the T-Sands, and the opening up of the U-sands with it. All of which is backed up by the very exciting prospect of Indico-1, which is about to spud. What today's discovery means is that the company have every chance of matching the production figures of H1, which in turn means the further uplift in H2 oil prices will now act more as a boost to profits, rather than a means to match the H1 results.

A solid production update will only add further fire to what is for me, a strong change in sentiment, a fact that that is backed up by the resurgence in posting on this BB today.

Whether RH is selling or not is of little significance now for me. I believe the momentum is here to stay because today's news is good enough to tip the scales in the bulls favour. To put it simply, if the price stays at these levels I will be adding considerably to my position because the disconnect is way too strong right now.

I look forward to another good day here tomorrow.

Yes I must admit I did wonder how the market could remove so much value from this stock when there was this T Sands 'discovery' hanging over it. I had thought if they could announce 200-250 bopd, then the market might get a little shock. Well said shock just got a lot bigger.

It's well oversold even without this discovery, add in the 590 bopd and rising, plus the prospect of further drills, and things could should get interesting around here today.

I have suspected for some time that this stock is being shorted off the back of RHs sell off. The N Sands gave them an excuse to squeeze it harder. If I am right, then perhaps now the squeeze will turn on its head.

@Clarkgrsiwald it depends on the context of the visit and its connection to the bigger picture.

BMN don't tend to signpost when what they perceive as being smaller matters as this, are coming, they report the fact they have taken place. Therefore, if the DMR are at Vametco then it will likely be reported in the Q3 update.

Remember the DMR visit mines all the time and it can be nothing with company progress and everything to do with compliance. Until we know the context of the visit and who was involved, I would assume nothing more.

Here is another interesting line from the Scoping Study (page 7).

" The vanadium electolyte will be used in the production of VRFB. It is anticipated that the Vanadium Electrolyte produced at the ELIDZ facility will supply a large portion of the local market as well as the export market."

If Eskom are in the market for battery storage, which we know they are. and the VRFB bein tested is the best technology for what they require, which we know it is, that local beneficiation is key to their decision along with BEE compliance, which we know it is, then the above statement is clear that their needs will be met by BE.