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@Daisan fair point and duly noted, but to be brutally honest I think any forecast employed against BMN beyond 2019 is of little or no relevance, which hopefully ties in with your appreciation of my main point.

The reality is SP Angel are using a model based on what they know to be true about BMN. That they will likely produce circa 3,750 mtv next year and 5,000 mtv the year after.

The reality is that further brownfield is looking a certainty here. That brownfield will from what we have heard yesterday be supported by the development of Brits as the mine element of the expansion plan.

At this point it is important to remember that BMN have already raised £4m in March in order to facilitate the ;

"Expansion of the vanadium reserves and resources at the Vametco mine and Brits Project for future production and support Vametco's expansion plans to increase production to more than 5,000mtV and beyond"

After yesterday's interview, the meaning of that RNS is becoming more and more clear, and the longevity of the plan even more so, because £4m buys a lot of digging.

That combination will deliver an extremely low expansion plan that will effectively deliver a Mokopone.

What that effectively means is that BMN do not need these ridiculously high vanadium prices in order to achieve the very same result. If that brownfield is up and running inside 2 years, then BMN really don't need super high vanadium prices for much longer than 2019. That said if they get them then all the better.

At 10,000 mtv BMN would in very simple terms, be making the very same amount of profit at $35 as they would be at 5,000 mtv and $50 per mtv. A situation SP Angel cannot right now ever include because it hasn't happened yet.

But it's coming.

Therefore, the long term forecasts from SP Angel are as good as obsolete, because $35 actually means $50.

If SP Angel tap that figure into their little mining computer, it won't be coming out as 37p that's for sure.

And the beauty of it all is that these ridiculously elevated vanadium prices will give BMN all the firepower they need to pay for it all, with a very good portion still left for the likes of us. So not only will they effectively open a new mine, but it will highly be done without the need for debt. Investors should go ask what AVL wouldn't give for that sort of result.

I couldn't write a better story if I tried.

Strong buy anyone. . .

@RichKen I have never really paid a great deal of attention to what SP Angel has to say, other than to review their assessment criteria to see what they are and are not including, and that for me is the key here.

Today's update is a good example of them once again starting to bridge the gap between their earlier assessments and the reality of the situation. That pattern will continue, not only through the adjustment in the pricing forecasts, but also in those elements that have yet to be priced in.

One can pull SP Angel's analysis apart as much as one likes, but for me there is more mileage in appreciating what they don't include and comparing it to the likelihood of those elements becoming reality, because they make no secret of it.

Today's broker target price is what 37p at $82 for 2018 and $45 long term. If you have done your homework here, which let's be honest, a great many here have lived, breathed and done to death, then you know there is much mileage in that pricing yet.

But better still, how likely is it that Brits will deliver cheaper ore to Vametco, how likely is it that additional cost effective brownfield will be brought into the fold and deliver 10,000 mtv? How likely is it that further efficiences at Vametco will deliver even more cost savings. How likely is it that BE will build that electrolyte facility, will assemble those VRFBs, and win those large scale VRFB mandates?

How likely is it even that the Lemur project will deliver a bankable feasability study and with it bring its true value into the BMN fold?

If you know in your heart of hearts that even half of those things will come to pass, then at the very least, you know at some point SP Angel will have to include them in their valuation, because right now they aren't there at all.

But by that point in time, you will have already have made your move and be ahead of anybody out there waiting on that update in order to act.

So if you have done your homework and you believe in what you have found, what does it really matter how they calculate it, the key is that even using their model, there is much much more to come.

Yes its a rather fascinating example of a distressed seller being squeezed out of the their holding.

Whichever way I look at it I think RH's remaining 34m or so shares has taken a heavy hit these last 23 trading days. I still think there is another week or two in him yet (assuming he is selling everything, which I believe he is), but it depends on volume, and if the production update comes with a decent update on Pintadillo-1, then it could be over even more quickly than that.

@Docisacoc That may well be the case. One thing is for certain, if any of the more sizeable figures out there are buys, then they are having absolutely no affect on the SP.

Just about every single buy at these levels is being swallowed up by the MMs without much evidence thus far of selling.

Today alone has seen over 1m in buys and I am being generous to the sells.

Once he clears it is highly likely going to rise on fresh air.

Whilst the volume over the last 2 trading days has dropped off, the buying is consistent and somewhat relentless. There are multiple buys coming in at 12.20p and the ask simply refuses to budge.

I raised the question of shorters yesterday but I don't believe any reasonably minded shorter would have the gall to keep trying to fend this level of buying off, given the news flow that is pending.

So it looks to me that it is a large seller and of course the main suspect has to be RH, given the willingness to sell throughout the summer lack lustre months.

One good piece of news and solid volume and and I believe he will be gone. Then lets see what that ask does then.

Morning all.

It is most interesting that the production update has still not been issued. This is now the latest it is has ever been issued since the "monthly production and OBA throughput" updates began in March 2017.

That's 18 updates. Some may not see that as significant but I do because it demonstrates consistency.

When we place that in the context of the news that has recently been communicated, be it achieved or pending, then it takes on even more significance in my view.

The 3 main immediate positive items on the books right now are the Indico-1 spud, the Chiritza Pumping Station, and the Pintadillo-1 oil discovery.

I do not see any reason why the the first two would delay the update. The Indico-1 spud is signposted for late October and could easily be highlighted in its very own RNS at the time.

The pumping station is good progress but until we know how and where the other 4,000 or so bopd are coming from, is it really newsworthy enough to hold up the production update? No.

So I am left with Pintadillo-1, where I know the company has a strong flowing oil discovery, where I know the company sees it as " an exciting and very positive result" , where I know it is being "observed" for "at least a further three days, after which a downhole pump may be run to provide some lift to the well to optimise flow parameters."

Where I know the results "indicates a separate structure compared to the T-sand production in the southern part of the block"

Yes there is always the possibility that there is bad news holding up the update, but let's be honest, that has never stopped the company issuing their updates before has it now.

As I said yesterday, I feel strongly that the company wants very badly to demonstrate to the market that it is again moving in the right direction. They know their SP is on its backside. Heck John Wardle bought shares as recently as 23rd May 2018 for 20.25p. So for me there is an eagerness there and this minor delay is a signal that even better news regarding Pintadillo-1 is coming in that update.

If I were to push it further, I think tyey actually have found something a little bit special that could drive significant new production once additional wells have been drilled.

We shall see soon enough.

@Clarkgriswald I am all for keeping a positive light on all things with BMN and I certainly believe that this is all about the bigger picture rather than Q3 and Q4 2018.

But with that interview FM had the opportunity to reassurel the market that the strike had not affected the latest guidance, but it didn't. What he did was the opposite, he said that "it (the strike) has an impact on your production numbers." he then talks about the long term benefits of agreeing "mutually beneficial relationships" with the workforce.

Now it may well be that they still hit guidance, but if that were the case then I would have expected him to say that, because the strike, rightly or wrongly, was a big deal for the market, and the question is pre-arranged with BRR, so the preparation time is all BMN's to have.

@Docisacoc Yes I see your point but in the case of Amerisur the extended period of selling and the belief that RH is the sole source of all the woe that has brought, is a shorter's greatest strength. Particularly if they are limited in their powers.

We are talking 102m shares being sold since 31st Dec 2016, so a saga that is in its 22nd month, and I am ignoring the 48m he sold in 2016 because it did not affect the market like it did post 2016. That's heavy and its longevity means the psychological affect is extreme. Just look at the state of this BB. The LTHs here are weary to say the least, and that is perfect hunting ground for a shorter or two.

But like I say, this is simply theorising with no real hard evidence, so it should be definitely be taken with a pinch of salt. Plus I truly believe the game will soon be up and the influence of RH, be it real or perceived, will be over, which would take any talk of shorts off the table for the foreseeable future.

@Brad29 I would also add that I think the SP is in a very strong consolidating phase. Once its over I think the attack on the all time high will begin. The market look like it doesn't need much of an excuse to reward BMN.

@Clarkgriswald I do not mean this disrespectfully, but I cannot quite understand your point. Could re-word it a little.

@Brad29 Firstly, it is only my take. I do appreciate the interest this BB assigns to my posts, but it is onoy my opinion and nothing else.

To pick up on your point. What i have learned by studying BMN to death, is that the company does not communicate ambitions that it does not already have a very clear fix on. This company, as a budding miner in SA, operates in a very complex and risky environment, and yet they make achieving their goals there look very easy.

So when they repeatedly talk about brownfield, there is a very strong possibility that said brownfield is already under sufficient control to ensure that it is in their hands as to if and how they move forward with it.

My own personal view is that the brownfield option is known, it is likely agreed in principal, and the company is merely waiting on the right moment to communicate this.

Remember FM clearly stated that the move to a 'substantial' producer of vanadium, which included the 10,000 plus mtv output, alows the company to realise its goals in the energy space. The energy space is happening. Following the confirmation of regulatory recognition through the new IRP, it no longer has any external barriers to being achieved. Therefore, the company is clearly stating that it has the weapons it needs to push battery storage in SA, which means its plan to move to 10,000 plus mtv, must also be well down the line too.

Further brownfield for me is a given, which means 10,000 plus mtv is a given, it will be fairly cheap to realise if it is supplied with ore from Brits, so the only question that remains is when and in what pricing environment can it be sold.

@Docisacoc I'm afraid the world doesn't work that simply. Not all shorts are notified and there is always more than one way to skin a cat.

Plus 0.49% is still 5.94m shares, which in a market dominated by the psychology of such an infamous seller, goes a very long way, particularly if said seller is helping you along.

Phone a friend and the position is easily doubled.

I would reiterate that it is just my opinion and I am much more interested in fundamentals and entry price points. But i am also not stupid and have seen enough devious plays play out, to not write off such an action here. That said, if a short is in play, then time is running out since Pintadillo-1 hit oil.

As for RH opening up a short, I simply do not see enough evidence in his selling patterns to demonstrate a desire to create additional pain. Anything is possible but the percentages, in my view, are against it.

(2 of 2)

Large scale mandates have therefore received the green light from the SA government through the legislation that Eskom requires in order to define its investment strategy.

Plus the references to the World bank and it being relevant to both SA and The SADC, means that there is a strong possibility that soem of that chunky $5 billion dollars can be captured by Eskom, to service this budding SA battery industry, and catapult BE towards its 1000MWH goal.

The money is there, the willingness is there, the battery is there, and now the regulatory authority is there.

Like I say, Jackpot.

4. Lemur - The message is clearly the same as that presented for the tin assets. words like " value for shareholders" wanting to make sure it gets the "right focus" "dedicated resources." Its clealry going to be spun off because that is the only way to achieve it, plus elements of the market are somewhat confused by the company's green message, when they are progressing a coal project.

I also think this interview was the pre-cursor for the BFS, which will be "completed soon." The Lemur update is perceived to be 'late' and given that the BFS is the key cog in that particular wheel, and it's been under review for some 4 months now, I would say it is due. How soon the spin off comes after that is questionable, but its certainly a badly kept secret right now, and the BFS is the final piece in the jigsaw puzzle that gets that particular ball rolling.

5. Brownfield Expansion - One message that is definitely consistent from both the company and me, is what brownfield means and what it will achieve. The interview is very clear. Vametco delivers 5,000 mtv, brownfield (now with the help of Brits) delivers the 5,000 'plus' mtv additional expansion.

And now you are going to believe us, was the cry from the terraces. . .

Highveld Steel and Vanadium used to deliver vanadium slag by rail to both Vametco and Vanchem. Therefore, there is a known method for transporting 'ore' from Brits to Vanchem, thus achieving BMN's goal of "processing ore at other facilities."

It would be nice to have more detail from the company on these matters, the game of cloak and daggers is one I have always enjoyed, but I trust it will soon be time to reveal the strategy so we can truly understand the value proposition moving forward.

Time will, as always, tell.

(1 of 2)

My own initial thoughts on the BRR interview are as follows :

1. Production at Vametco - I get the feeling that an element of this interview is setting us up for a reduction in production guidance, which would be a shame. That said, the vanadium price is presently making up for any shortfall, although the market is likely unable to fully appreciate this without further financial figures. Plus I trust we will remain within the range previously provided, even if that means being at the lower end.

2. Brits - FM stated that this project gives BMN the "ability to produce significantly more ore tons, that can be processed not only at Vametco but at other facilities," Around about the time of the Brits purchase, I posted an argument that Vametco would expand onto Brits with a full mine and processor. The messages from the company moved me away from this argument because Brits has looked more and more like a long term play, and Mokopone was seemingly being pushed harder. Plus the Annual Report counters what FM has just indicated in that interview, so we all have a right to be a little confused right now.

However, given the delays that can be experienced in SA, strategically Brits is the right way to go. It has all of the services that Brits needs to realise its potential, thus greatly reducing the timescales and more importantly the elements that are outside of BMN's control. The removal of Sojitz only adds more fire to that argument.

My argument at the time was why set up a greenfield processor in the middle of nowhere when you don't need to. Brits is located right next to a main hub with far better transport, power, water, labour etc, plus it has everything it needs just 800m over the wall. I also said that that if a miner had the choice they would move as much of their set up as close to that hub as they could. The only thing that needs to stay remote is the mineral that is being mined, because physically you cannot move it anywhere else until it is mined.

But BMN do have another option. Brits is a mine, so they can move the mine closer to that hub by choosing to develop Brits ahead of Mokopone. If they can do that then the savings on offer by having both a producing mine next door and servicing it with brownfield, would be immense.

3. BE - The key message for me was when MN said the new IRP "allows storage to be part of that same service that gas would normally provide which is peaking support"

Bingo.

The message from the company has been clear for some time. They somehow have an inside line to these developments because the entire SA political might is seemingly pulling their way and they are very confident of the results prior to them being realised. Energy storage being included in the IRP, something I did not personally clearly see when I read it, opens up Eskom and the REIPP system to batteries. MN just stated on camera that it is.

Jackpot.

Just tweeted

I would also add, and again it is just my own opinion, that the end of RH will be clearly demonstrated by the way the market acts.

I would stress that whilst I have concentrated on RH front end, he and his sell off are not what this story is all about, but unfortunately that story isn't being fairly judged right now because it is very clear to the market that he is selling. So unfortunately, that is the story until it is over. Although I do think there are one or two shorts riding on the coat tails of the bad sentiment and the RH sell off too. B Ut they will soon be flushed out when they lose that RH support.

Once that sorry episode is over, it will be more about the performance and the market finding a valuation that is not affected by the physical and psychological affect that the RH saga has inflicted. That of course will include management performance, but again, as demonstrated in my posts yesterday, the sentence does not fit the 'crime' because the company has moved forward substantially on many fronts.

Like I say just my opinion.

I tend to agree with jointhedots. I actually rather hastily retweeted the post without checking it properly first. That isn't like me and was an error on my part.

Thinking about it more clearly, the percentages say it is still too early for RH to have sold out completely. My view was always October but that it would accelerate with positive news because the volume would have increased, which again the percentages point towards.

Since the last notification involving RH, there has been 108m shares traded in 23 trading days, that's 4.7m per day.

RH managed to offload 10.46m when the average volume was 2.16m per day. In theory at the same rate of success that would place him at around 11.5m, although the buying pressure has clearly been much higher, so i would say it's closer to 10m.

At that rate, he's got around 6-7 trading days at an average 4.7m volume. But I am very much liking the fact that there was no update today. With the kicking this company has had this year, I cannot help but feel that the Pintadillo-1 find gives them a good opportunity to demonstrate their worth. I know LTHs have strong feelings about the BOD, I know they are perceived to be greedy and perhaps just taking the paycheck, but they are also human and they didn't get to where they are without having some sort of strong ego and desire to be seen in a good light.

So I think they are at least looking to demonstrate the strength of the Pintadillo-1, so I expect results and progress to run quicker than Platanillo 22 and 21 did. But it's all just my opinion

@Jointhedots. I appreciate very much what you are saying and I am not defending the BOD on that particular matter, but that one issue does not define a company, nor does the BOD's actions or failure of define the value here.

Take a look at the performance in full year figures for the company starting from 2015.

DATE - AVERAGE OIL PRICE ACHIEVED - AVERAGE COSTS (PER BARREL) - AVERAGE DAILY PRODUCTION - 2P RESERVES -MARKET CAP (AT DATE OF RESULTS RELEASE)

2015 Full - $42.85 - $27 - 4,437 bopd - 23.7m - £344m
2016 Full - $38.40 - $26 - 3,086 bopd - 24.5m - £273m
2017 Full - $52.20 - $18.60 - 4,857 bopd - 20.7m - £271m
2018 H1 - $64.20 - $20.50 - 5,959 bopd - 19m - £183m

Since 2015 :

1. The oil price has risen by 49.8%
2. Costs have reduced by 21.2%
3. Production has increased by 34.3%.
4. 2P reserves have reduced by 19.8%
5. The Market cap has reduced by 46.8%

2P reserves are down but the figure quoted is calculated aginst Dec 2017 reserves minus 2018 production upto the 13th Sept Interims. So there is no allowance for the Pintadillo-1 find, which the company is quoted as saying has "no reserves of any class" booked against it.

That's not to say there shouldn't be disappointment because 2P reserves are down, full stop. Promised production output hasn't been reached. The drilling campaigns are slower than anticipated.

But does that perceived failure really warrant a 46.8% reduction in the MC, given the other positive percentages demonstrated above.

That's my argument here. I have invested in this company several times before and been underwhelmed by its performance. But that does not mean that it has performed badly, more that it hasn't delivered what it said it could.

At today's MC of £148m the stock is down 57% from it's 2015 levels, but is a far better operation than it was that year, operating in a far stronger oil environment.

The RH angle should not be overplayed but at the very same time, it shouldn't be underestimated either. That of course adds fuel to your argument and quite rightly so. However, the beating up of the company's management can also go too far, meaning the achievements become diluted by that very focus.

So i am back to the above figures and I am seeing a very large disconnect in the valuation, at a time when a key influencer (RH) is on his last legs, and the company is finally producing with the drill bit and through its actual performance. That is enough to have me reaching for the buy button, management failures or not.

I have been taking a closer look at the history of the RH sell off. I have only gone as far back as the end of 2016 because I believe the period prior to this isn't quite so relevant. That said RH sold around 46m shares in 2016 leaving him 102.07m as of 31st Dec 2016.

From that point moving forward the story went as follows ;

DATE – TOTAL SHARES – AVERAGE SOLD PER TRADING DAY IN PERIOD – SP START – SP END

31.12.2016 to 22.03.2017 - 83.2m – 365k – 26.75p – 20.75p
22.03.2017 to 12.10.2017 – 69.95m – 95k – 20.75p – 19.25p
12.10.2017 to 12.02.2018 – 56.22m – 172k – 19.25p – 16.8p
12.02.2018 to 30.03.2018 – 52.8m – 100k – 16.8p – 15.4p
30.03.2018 to 20.07.2018 – 44.78m – 96k – 15.4p – 15.1p
20.07.2018 to 06.09.2018 – 34.32m – 317k – 15.1p – 14.2p

06.09.2018 to 07.10.2018 - ??? - ??? – 14.2p - 12.7p

From the above one can see that the first post 2016 sell off was the strongest and took place during a period when the SP dropped 22.43%.

However, from 22.03.2017 until 20.07.2018 the selling slowed considerably with the average number of sells per trading day dropping to circa 131,000. Still the SP lost some 25% and it has never finished higher than it started in each period.

The key for me though is the period since 20.07.2018. For some reason the pace picked up considerably and it picked up during one of the quietest periods for both volume and news flow. So something changed.

There is nothing really in that period that would drive volume other than investors appreciating the disconnect between value and progress, other than the drop to a new low on 6th Aug, and yet RH sold more shares per day than he had done for over 18 months.

That to me signals a seller that wants and is prepared to take ever decreasing returns to achieve it. What that also says very loudly is that he will have been selling into every bit of positive news he could find, because volume drives a speedier exit.

Since 06.09.2018 we have seen volume increase significantly.

20.07.2018 and 06.09.2018 RH sold on average 317,000 per day against total volume of 71.43m in 33 trading days at an average of 2.16m per day.

Since 06.09.2018 volume has totalled 103m in 22 trading days, which is 4.68m per day.

When I factor in the pending updates and expected further drilling and production at Pintadillo 1, plus Indico-1 being spudded, plus the elevated oil price, then this period right now feels very much like the last opportunity to take advantage of the suppressed prices, being driven by what I believe to be the final RH sell off.

I simply cannot logically see why RH would so agressively sell over 10m in the quietest period of the year, despite selling less in better periods and for better prices, and not then push on heavily when increased volume allowed him too.

So for me its very much happening and combined with the very welcome new discovery at Pintadillo 1, it should make for a very interesting time for all shareholders.

Personally unless there is a major shift in the production numbers, I don't see that element of the production update being very relevant. A psychological move above 5,000 bopd would be welcome, particularly if it comes from additional production from Platanillo 22. However, it may be a little early given what the company stated in the 7th Sept update ;

"Current production has stabilised and at the right time we may increase production rates at Platanillo-22 whilst preserving the long-term integrity of the well."

There is definitely more production to come from that well, but the key for me is stable production numbers that don't undermine the progress made at Pintadillo 1.

The key driver for me right now is the T and U Sands at Pintadillo 1. On 3rd Oct the company stated the following ;

"In line with Company standard practice the well will be observed at these stable parameters for at least a further three days, after which a downhole pump may be run to provide some lift to the well to optimise flow parameters."

So as of next week, it is highly likely that there will be further news on this well. That's the real news and it is well worth waiting a few more days to update the market, so that this information can be included. If there is a decent uplift in production there, then the pressure on the SP will continue to mount.