Member Info for big-blue

Unfortunately I would be classed as self-employed and so would have to self-certify myself with a letter. I suppose I could claim to be an integral part of solving the pandemic due to my brilliant mind and on that basis free travel to Vegas and back was a critical requirement to investigate the impact of climate change mask wearing on game theory using the probability structure only found in Vegas strip casinos! All I need is a soft interview on R4 directed by a like-minded producer. Nobody let the Today production team know that I know the truth about climate change claims and the consequences of mask wearing or I won't get the interview to back up my self-certified self-importance. Thanks. Keep voting up JohnBrie1's post below. Makes him feel important.

but referenced news livestock is reporting no change in policy, working groups still figuring out mechanisms to facilitate covid passports into the the fractured US state systems. Even if the political policy were to change today, the technical solution is a many weeks off.

Thumbs up JB1, everybody give him a thumbs up and stroke his ego for him. Make his day - highest number of thumbs up ever!

UK entry requirements are one thing. But what do the Americans have to do on their return to the US? If it is like the system in the UK, with quarantines, tests, tests and then more tests, then the incentive to not travel is greater as the UK government has managed to achieve by sabotaging UK free travel. The market reaction as the news emerges seems to back up the fact that any form of restriction to free travel wrt to the sabotaging history is a continuing indicator that the travel market will remain depressed until all sanctions and threat of sanctions is removed.

A few months ago when various talking-heads popped up in the media talking about it will take years to return to free travel, I dismissed that talk as rubbish. That was based on honest open and rational policies being in place by governments that would WANT to see the sector returned back to strength as it was in so many best interests. Of course there has been some politicking and power playing given the mix of egos and vanities, but they are usually short term effects a large market dampens out. What I never factored in was the extent that governments, especially the UK government, would go to to deliberately damage the industry. It has, and continues to be, deliberately sabotaged. I have been wondering where has the environmental been jumping on the chance to stop the return to travel pre-pandemic. Have they been working on it all the time but very much out of public sight concentrating on the most susceptible in the right positions to use the pandemic as the cover??? I've seen first hand what happens when a small group of like-minded idealists get to work and quietly but methodically take control of the social rudder and steer policy and governments in a general direction being careful to not introduce an directly identifiable change that can be noticed and stopped. It is coercion we see throughout history form religions and post industrialisation with social policies such as socialism and greenism. To be where we are now does not add up under level one scrutiny. Needs a much deeper consideration.

Todays closing candle confirms tomorrow is an up day
Todays closing candle confirms tomorrow is an up day
Todays closing candle confirms tomorrow is an up day
Todays closing candle confirms tomorrow is an up day
Todays closing candle confirms tomorrow is an up day
Todays closing candle confirms tomorrow is an up day

huh, huh, huh, huh, huh. And people call me out for posting crap... Another chartist's victory, lol.

Do not candles diminish in size the longer they burn? Valid news story and of no surprise. Kick in the teeth for Merkel. A lot of political coinage was spent trying to get access for EU into US. Ha, EU thought it was special, now it has a reality check.
However, forget the airlines and travel, individual States will be kicking off more loudly and more violently. Thr country is deeply divided and the tinder just needs a spark - the president imposed diktats are causing problems. September continues to be the most probably open time, bit which end of the month?

Just filter me if you don't want to know what my input is. A bb is an open discussion of things related to and that may affect the topic of the board, i.e. IAG. You may not wish to acknowledge the wider 360 real world events that do impact the company directly. You only want to hear people posting positive stroking messages about how the sp is always going up and everything is just fine. The real world ain't like that. Now, YOU do us all a favour and filter me rather posting cheap snide remarks to get cheap claps from the audience with thumbs up. Incidently, I always add to the thumbs up of people who object to me posting. Have another for ego.

I did a mask wearing analysis over the end of last week and the weekend in various shopping areas and retail outlets. The week day shopper is much less likely to bother with the mask, with DIY and household stores having around 50% wearing. The supermarkets have a a little bit more wearers on the weekday. There was a higher level of wearers on the weekend in the supermarket, like 80% in an Aldi store, and a bit higher in the household stores. I was not challenged at any entrance, or within any store and didn't see anybody not wearing being challenged at all. One thing of note, a lot of shop staff had ditched the mask! Where policy boards were on display there was reference to 'personal choice for customers and staff' in most locations. Given the unions were one of the more vocal pro-mask lobby groups I found that interesting.

From this it can be concluded that the intense mask wearing lobby with the support of mass media has managed to spook/fool a fair number of people in to believing that they are making a positive benefit.

What this means for case numbers? The current decline in reported cases is most likely due to the drop in testing with the kids of school now. The masks came off a section of the population a week ago so it is still about a week before the effects will show through. Factor in the extent to which different mechanisms can spread the virus, aerosol v contaminated mask/surfaces, I will expect to see a rise back to the levels before the schools broke up [and testing volume decline] and then a decline. The rate of decrease will be slow if the same rate of mask wearing continues. But the rate of decrease will gradually get larger and larger. There will be spikes in isolated areas, some might be significant, with a probability of sudden very local lockdowns in some wards. This will continue whilst some mask wearers continue as super spreaders in shops. Spreading in pubs and restaurants will be very low as most people abandon the mask in these zones, however these zones will be the first to shut down.

At some point the truth about the masks themselves being the spreaders of infection will have to be put into public discussion. The correlation all around the planet shows conclusively the spread within mask wearing areas is the same or indeed worse compared to no wearing areas.

For the full reopening of international travel due to falling cases numbers to happen, the masks have to go. A return to normal travel will be within a matter of 3-4 weeks if the masks were banned tomorrow - the first ban inside airports and aircraft.

So when you hear the first public reference to what I have been arguing for the some time now, it may well be the first signal the end of the pandemic and travel restrictions is over. On that you should use your 360 perspective to make your own informed decision on whether to invest or not in travel related stocks. Investing should never be made on emotional decisions.

Ryan air making a lot about EU covid passport and how wonderful and free they are. Feel left out? Should we have an emergency 'Stop Brexit' referendum so we don't feel so left out? And what about Gibraltar? After the land grab of Northern Ireland, Gibraltar is next. You have to ask yourself why the UK covid passport is still not recognised. Our travel and international holiday business has been wrecked from within with direct acts of sabotage. The ambition to ensure the EU opens up leaving the UK behind and restricted on EU travel has been a success.

So whilst many of you will be feeling up beat and positive about falling cases and Ryan air''s latest reporting of paxc numbers on the up, do remember that there continue to be very dark forces at work and UK travel is still very vulnerable to further acts of sabotage as we saw with Portugal and France. We know Merkle was lobbying the US to open routes for the EU but excluding the UK. We need our government to be firstly reconfigured through a major reshuffle and especially Gove being removed, then we need to see some aggressive diplomacy to counter-balance the very aggressive acts coming out of the EU commission. Otherwise, all these positive vibes are going to be stamped out repeatedly over the next 6 months.

You might want to give a definition of "soon". There are some very pedantic preachers on this bb [!]

The climate change proponents will make all sorts of correlations as proof of their overall theory. Let's test out one hypothesis that you won't see on BBC tele [nor any other].

Has any body noticed that the current apparent high incidence of intense weather events, is occurring after a substantial drop in burning fossil fuels in engines? There you go, a direct correlation using the incidence frequency over time base the climate change lobby are using to qualify the assertion that there is such a s thing as climate change and that it is man made due to cars, and planes and other vehicles. But my correlation does not serve the purposes of the Marxist movement and is therefore not articulated.

Think about it. There are supposed to be a serious of mega weather events all around the planet at the moment. They are occurring after a major reduction in air travel and road/rail travel due to global lockdowns. The correlation is a hell of a lot stronger than most of the crap the climate change lobby comes out with. We should fly much more NOW to restore the climate to pre-pandemic status. It is a matter of urgency and we must all complete 20 trips before 23rd December or all the cute furry animals will die at the north pole. OMG, what have we done? We've destroyed all the furry little creatures by grounding all the aeroplanes. How could we have been so stupid? lol.

If they had their way, there would no travel, we would be destined to return to Victorian era British staycations. "

Not just international travel, domestic too. The impact that banning sales of hydrocarbon driven cars is going to have a major impact in a mere 8 1/2 years and is going to be immense. There will be a complete social breakdown due to the cost of running and maintaining the alternative. It will not be available for the larger part of the population and most people will not be able to get to work. The green agenda is derived from a Marxist philosophy. This wing of Marxism latched on to the green agenda as it's method of population management. And as for aeroplanes being powered by batteries or carrying thousands of litres of liquid hydrogen around - forget that. You need the equivalent of key rocket launching facility to handle it. Fossil fuel was always going to be phased out as resources depleted. But the replacement technology should be emerging gradually rather than this totally artificial deadline that will have no impact at all on any aspect of any part of atmosphere. I would never hold a long term investment in the airlines for a future pension based on the current hysterical religious cult called climate change.

what is the cost of living in Ireland? The benefit levels may sound good, but if a loaf of bread costs €50 then it may not be that good.

Do I detect a decoupling of Easy J amd IAG? Has it finally begun?

Tune in next week for the next exciting instalment of "Who'd be a day trader?"

and they marched it back down the hill again. Next week rinse and repeat, three forward one back.

investing.com also gives live updates, is battery light and easy on the adds

I was being sarcastic for mararaarab... although I don't think he takes it very well and gets very defensive.

..... and meant to mention, air cargo ports are similar to sea ports which act as very large sorting centres. The coordination of freight to be distributed at the hubs needs to be as organised as a shipping port otherwise you end up having to store ever larger number of boxes waiting to be broken down into forward destinations. For example, a factory in Taiwan produces 500,000 electric shavers. The consignment is sent in 5 batches to 5 distribution hubs around the continents. Those 100,000 unit consignments are broken down into smaller batches and put on separate flights within the continents to say 5 more airports. Some of those 20,000 batches are then flown to say 3 regional airports, dropping off part of the consignment in each. Each then broken down further and sent directly to road transport distribution hubs or mail order storage warehouses. The logistics of air freight are every bit as complicated as rail, road or sea.

again marabab, not the full picture. If feathers are being transported, the hold might be stuffed full. If blocks of lead are being transported, I can guarantee the hold will not be full!

As for the income, cargo v passenger, that is an interesting one. Of course you need to know what the price kg is, then translate that to kg of passengers, kg of seats and kg of passenger safety and support. Before you even turn the engines on, there are a lot of fixed cost kg. I wonder if any airlines removed sections of seats from the aircraft whilst continuing to operate with, say, 50% of the seats in place to avoid the cost of flying around empty seats? I wonder?

I do importing and can tell you that the air cargo prices rapidly went up over the pandemic and for most items I simply told the exporter to ship over land or by sea. The cost benefit of fast delivery is not always justified so I would estimate that some of the conversion of fleets from passenger to cargo on a temporary basis will NOT have raised similar revenue as dedicated cargo for two reasons, 1 the passenger craft still has a lot of passenger related system kg to fly around and the cargo capacity was required simply because the usual suspects quickly priced themselves out of market. The main delay in cargo transport was also some transit cargo hub ports quarantined huge mountains of goods, some for months.

Cargo will be noticeable in the results but not massive. The most profitable cargo flights will be passenger flights without much luggage and therefore space for time delivery critical high value parcels.

For the benefit of marababa, botbot, can you confirm whether the cargo hold needs to 70% full for the flight to break even?