Member Info for big-blue

"There is no however, followed by an if in the rns."

Phew, so it is just errant posters that do not understand the damage such phraseology can generate.

Interesting point baldegale. When lockdown started, I lamented the loss of being able to grab a burger at MacDonald's. When they reopened I stuffed myself with a Big Mac, and didn't really enjoy it. Not what I remembered it to be. However, KFC, now I was well into KFC before the pandemic, but they are my go to now for a drive through. And KFC has a much more divers menu around the planet with much more variation. You should see the size of the drumsticks in Nanjing!!!!!! And the lemon drizzle in Hong Kong was to die for. Can't wait to start flying lh again to catch up with my global KFC. My plan is to get app stamps from all over the world and try and unlock some special status badge if it exists.

Oh, now I'm going to have to get the petrol fired 4 wheeled monster out and do a journey and satisfy the desperate need for KFC. Yummy!

There is a religious type cult ramping up mass hysteria and the usual counter balance dampening such nonsense is actually apart of it - i.e. mass media. The final straw will be stopping people's personal freedom of movement taking their affordable cars away. And I am expecting this to be brought forward significantly in the Nov conference based on the US recent statements buying into this lie full-time. It is sheer madness that societies can allow themselves to be so mislead, but then again, look how easy the world allows itself to engage in wars slaughtering thousand, hundreds of thousands, neigh - millions. Mostly out of vanity and posturing. Perhaps we should wipe ourselves out, the human race has not reached sufficient maturity to deserve the universal jewel of intelligence.

"however if"

A single 'however' can set off alarm bells, but IAGlongtern's adding of the dreaded 'if' alongside the 'however' is enough to call up the devil himself. Two words that should never come together when assessing odds and investments, 'however' and 'if'. Cripes, the remaining hairs on my head stood up in fear when I saw that.

Key to borrowing is what are you putting up for collateral. There is much talk in the statement about how they have already raised loans against aircraft and airport slots at both Heathrow and Gatwick. What else have they got? I don't think IAG can opt for cross-collateralisation as it states the individual airlines in the group have there own credit arrangements. I don't think the banks underwriting Vueling or Lingus will be happy to use those assets to also underwrite BA. And it is BA of concern. One possible revenue raiser will be to sell off BA and thereby BA raises more money from the market in the process.

On thing is certain, if those Q3 numbers do not show signs of improving, then there will be increasing nerves and if the Q4 does not have transatlantic flights in the numbers and are very robust, some resolution is a definite.

What I am finding very annoying is that the whole sector is being pulled down with this statement. The computers continue to trade the whole sector as a block, my earlier hopes that there were signs IAG and Easy were decoupling is shot to pieces again. So if Easy doubles pax numbers and IAG halves, then both the sp move in tandem. That is a funny sort of 'market' Wonder if the FCC is noting what is starting to become unusual sp movements. With the conditions in the respective markets of at least these two markets diverging the sp should also be mirroring this. Similarly, SSP is taking the same hit. This is most annoying. Fine for IAG to take a hit with an ify trading update, but wrong that the rest of the sector is so affected. I know there are some complicated rules about computer trading to avoid market distortions, I wonder whether the rules are being stuck to properly.

Trev, all I can do is repost the quote from the IAG statement and the scenario I cite on Q3/Q4 numbers. It is from the horses mouth, they gave a clear statement of intent, "would likely need to secure additional funding" .

""In the event that such a scenario were to occur, the Group would need to implement additional mitigation measures and would likely need to secure additional funding over and above that which is contractually committed at July 29, 2021. "

It is a clear, plain, blunt warning, further rights issue on the way and it will be well before December. If the Q4 flight prediction is not getting towards 80/90+% pre-pandemic levels, then you have been warned. There WILL be a rights issue in Q4."

If the next published flight stats do not show growth approaching the 40% level, then there will be alarm bells. If the US routes haven't opened up BEFORE the start of Q4, then there will be a fund raiser in the market. This is a short term trading share now with a lead up to Q4 being the time to stick with it or pull out. Will IAG spin of the burdensome BA with its huge pension deferrals and delayed recovery and concentrate on the better performing airlines in the group? Whilst it might be unfair on BA how it is being impacted by the travel bans, business is business.

For me, the only money making opportunity is to be in a week or so ahead of an announcement [or strong rumours] that the transatlantic routes are opening up for BA form UK/EU to US. It will spike but then drop back significantly as Q4 gets underway irrational government decisions on both sides of the Atlantic and form the EU continue. The bringing forward of the cash burn deadline to Dec 2021 rather than the previous summer 2022 despite big cost savings which are hiving to continue is not looking good for the near term. IAG is on the cusp of trouble. It is hurting with the travel restrictions and BA is the mill-stone. Not one for long term holding especially since they are wedded to the costs of the environmental crap rather than calling it out. In the longer post pandemic term travel is going to be crippled by all that stuff anyway so airline stocks will certainly not be in any long term income portfolio for me.

BaldEagle, the weaker airlines should fold, but as we know, there will be state aid ignoring trade rules and so the position the likes of BA are in will continue, where there is no state aid in comparison to other airlines. It puts the group at a disadvantage. UK government just doesn't have the aggressive attitude and instead believes in playing by the book.

"In the event that such a scenario were to occur, the Group would need to implement additional mitigation measures and would likely need to secure additional funding over and above that which is contractually committed at July 29, 2021. "

It is a clear, plain, blunt warning, further rights issue on the way and it will be well before December. If the Q4 flight prediction is not getting towards 80/90+% pre-pandemic levels, then you have been warned. There WILL be a rights issue in Q4.

"the Directors have a reasonable expectation that the Group has sufficient liquidity for the going concern assessment period to December 31, 2022"

This should be of a little concern, previously the group was saying it had more than enough cash to see it well into 2022 if lockdowns continued. Given the increase in flights didn't rise even 1% between Q1 and Q2 and the expected increase for Q3 is well behind competitors, this isn't a very strong base to work from. As I study the text, I am getting a between the lines warning, IAG is holding on but travel restrictions are burning out the business quickly. There is a lot of shifting of chairs on the deck trying to reduce costs here and there but it won't amount to much with most of Q3 lost due to US routes remaining closed.

don't take it out on me nothingforever, sorry your expected news is not the bells and whistles you want to see but it isn't my fault. The company has not issued a forecast, others have, the expected increase in business is less than others have put in their news statements. If you want to hit out at someone with knuckle draggin frustration, aim it at IAG.

Unfortunately, because of the way the iis computers keep trading all travel stocks as a block, the rest of the sector is dragged down by IAG statement.

No 'however's in the summary. Grammatical 'however's are to be expected, but there is no 'however' leading to an announcement needing more cash. They have just enough cash to remain solvent but there is no future prediction so the probability of of a further fund raise is certainly getting closer.

No 'however', so they have avoided that one. BUT, there are a lot of deferred payments, there are some heavy obligations to be paid and perhaps the bit that made me most concerned,
"Given the uncertainty over the timing of the lifting of government travel restrictions and the continued impact and duration of COVID-19, IAG is not providing profit guidance for 2021."

Uncertainty is a bad, bad environment for business to operate in and if IAG is unsure and hesitant to give forecasts then why would anybody expect the market to have a positive [or negative] forecast. A desire to raise the flights from 22% to 45% compared to a former period which was already low is vulnerable. IAG is basically saying they are not confident of the business picking up in any meaningful way and there is no forecast as to when it will.

The madness continues with full on propaganda coverage of the climate change bull. So there had never been rain before, never had floods, never had heat waves, never had snow, this is all new?

As ever not a single cross examination or any questioning of any piece of data or any claim. Open airwaves to broadcast a total lie. Sheer utter madness. You are living in a time of mass hysteria and it is about to get a whole lot worse.

marab, depends on the flight time. You might find the BA flight has better connection times with connecting flights in to JFK. £150 difference can be charged if the PERCEPTION of the difference in service has been sold correctly. It is like Harrods selling the same items as the shop next door for twice the price. I know, I over charge for products I sell because people have some bizarre idea that expensive = higher quality. If BA can get away with it, good for them. It is not an automatic thing people pay the lower price for the same product.

I will know exactly what the sp will be tomorrow in exactly the same way I will know what the wining lottery numbers are for this Friday coming. In fact, to prove it, if I remember, I will post both those pieces of information at the appropriate time!

Anyone here good at solving cryptic clues?

jeeeezz, the mass hysteria hyping up Armageddon climate change is ramping up more. Some idiot in the US administration is coming out with some incredible over the top bull now to add to the bare faced lies and false data from the UK met office today. And there are some more months of this to come leading up to the Glasgow conference.

If you can not see this for what it really is then you frankly deserve what will be very significant consequences as people's economic lives a simply deleted and erased with completely unnecessary changes forced on society. Another absolute madness on a par with crazed religious cults. You can kiss goodbye to any long term investment returns with anything connected to travel if these zealots are not pulled down and real world truths are made prominent.

Do you all buy this hysteria? Really?

250% of what? 1 flight or 1000 flights? And what is the load factor? In fact, does that 250% increase finally fill one single aircraft? Which airline? All? US based only? As always, apply the 360 rule and things come into a better perspective.