Member Info for big-blue

Teddy, business is business and every RNS whatever the apparent ethical status of the business must always be read impartially without allowing emotion or sentiment in. Travel was anticipated to be opened up well ahead of what has actually transpired and given the weight put on summer returns for business connected with travel which was being well expressed as far away ago as early spring, compare to what has transpired with actual deliberate sabotaging of travel plans and the forward expectations based on real statements and there is frankly a very large 'however' looming. The loss of the first and mid part of summer travel, and most likely the late summer market, can not be so easily dismissed. IAG's forward projection of where the business would be will have assumed an amount of expected cash flow. These are cold hard real world facts that are going to lead to a lower than expected revenue stream. The main cash earner is running at minimal capacity and is not going to increase anytime soon. This is a reality and it is going to impact figures and certainly forward prognosis. Real world, no sentiment.

Actually nothing to do with wanting IAG to go down. Certainly the lower the entry price the better. This switcheroo is all about TIMING. The price of IAG at the moment of the switcheroo will be what it is. The critical part of the strategy for me is that there is little rumour in the air that US is about to open up so that when I go all in with IAG it has a decent jump when the US opens up.It is very reasonable to assume that the sp of IAG will be a good way below a post travel announcement a week or two ahead of the announcement. Whether that is half or double the current price is academic. My alert on possible bad day tomorrow is based on plenty of experience where companies routinely tell you they are doing fine and dandy, but due to some event they end up with a 'however' in the statements to explain why everything is the opposite to what it was before and why they need a few hundred million more from the market. Business only release information as required by stock market rules.

WHen the IAG results are released tomorrow, you only need to scan the summary for one single word. That word is...

"However".

Pages of ramping bull and positive spin becomes meaningless when that one single word is in the text, generally towards the end of the statement. However, [there it is] the iis computer's will have speed read the RNS before your knackered old PC has even decided which program to open the text with. By the time your machine has displayed the words and reach for the scroll wheel, the iis computers will have dumped mountains of shares.
I fear for IAG it's going to be more of a case of 3 steps back and stand still for a few days tomorrow. It'll come back but I am in the 60% probability camp that tomorrow will not be a happy bunny day.

Sore point? Genuinely very confused as to what could be the trigger.

I have pointed out a couple of times over the last couple of months, the patter is three steps forward, two back. Not sure what the big issue with that is, as this is/has/will be the movement from here to when the US formally opens up to UK travellers. Given the advice is that yanks shouldn't visit the UK at all I think believing that borders are to suddenly opened up for incoming Brits is a bit wishful thinking. The mind set to stop trying to control cases and change to 'living with covid' is not fully developed in many countries. Vaccination rates are stalling and the social access covid passport is having to be introduced. By the time the libertarian arguments, legal challenges and system integrations are sorted out, this is not going to be an overnight turn around. September, and I say towards the end of September is going to be the earliest for US travel, although there may be some rogue states like Nevada that set up 'tourist bubbles' so you can fly into Vegas, hand over all your money to the casino and hotel owner, and then fly out again direct from UK. Also, there maybe an expansion on allowable special travel categories with all the vaccination test bells and whistles to allow more family and business one-offs but you would be lucky I think to fill half of one aeroplane a day.

maraaba - go to library. Ask for 'dictionary'. Find a comfortable seat. Look up the word, 'sarcasm' [it is under the section titled 's']. Re-read the first paragraph of my comments. Sit back in your chair, look up to right and smile modestly as you get it. Put dictionary back in place. Thank the nice assistant. Go home.

Your day is complete and you learned something.

Golly gosh! What a massive surprise! The sp is being marched one step back down the hill again. If only somebody could have foreseen this, they could have sold on a spike and be ready to buy back in again a little lower. If only.......

It's a pattern, few steps forward, couple back. iis profit taking pattern for this sector is high confidence predictable. Of note, SSP continues to rise, that is probably an indication of the increase in footfall in the airports due to increased travel intra zone, i.e. US internal travel and EU internal travel. Still no announcement on covid passport merging into one system with EU - I don't think it is now going to happen. Looks like it is going to be a mish mash of mutli platforms and border. I suspect that will be down to the EU being as inflexible as ever and expecting everybody else to accept their system as the global system with no alteration to accommodate anybody else's system. Bad move! If they try to hold out against the future US system or SEA systems they will be shutting themselves out. EU just will not learn to cooperate, it always has to insist on trying to dominate like they are some sort of important super power. Well, let them be locked out. Who cares whether these stuck snobby Europeans want to fit in. Leave 'em behind. Send the message to the US administration, UK is open and flexible, don't waste any time waiting for the Europeans to get on board, just get the reciprocal covid passport arrangement up and running for UK to US travel and ignore the Europeans.

I hope you are right sundeze, I have a strategy which is a win win anyway. It is all about whether my strategy can cream of an extra dozen grand or something to allow me to add to my travel plans, i.e add on a trip on something that floats with a private balcony full board drinks included [including the 8am Margarita :) ]. I am in Easy and SSP in travel heavy and both are surging at the moment. Getting ready for the sell and buy on the next step back and then again onwards for the next couple of steps forward. When will the Easy steps forward end - -I think the time will be around when the mutual covid passport recognition is WORKING in the real world rather than just announcements. I have a feeling Merkel's exit timetable is having an effect on the delay of the announcement which should have been 1st of July. As previously, the proper opening up of the markets is dependant on whether destination countries will accept external visitors and to what extent our own wild cards in our government are prepared to intervene and sabotage overseas travel as part of the war raging in Downing St. The momentum is clearly towards opening up travel and so the resistance form the lockdown lobby in Downing St is on the wane - for the moment. Within the EU money and real world reality is biting deeper and more localised arguments to open up are growing but for now the commission is maintaining it's grip on the member states knackers. We may yet see a return to rogue states going it alone with arrival rules despite the sell of the commission related to terms for opening up the internal travel. It is of no significant advantage to many tourist hot spots - the Brits spend the bulk of the money. I expanded on my assessment of the US earlier this morning. SO I expect a EU travel surge first, followed closely by the transatlantic opening up perhaps only a week or so behind. We will see won't we.

Makes little difference which stock anybody is in really, as long as you are holding in a market sector that is getting a bounce. I could easily be in IAG looking for a decoupling against another travel related stock and looking for a switcheroo there. Such opportunities come along here and there and the compound effect of jumping between shares with big gains within a booming sector when individual shares are moving out of sync due to very localised issues can result in pretty significant gains. Such an opportunity has been ever present in the travel sector for most of Q2 in my opinion. I may have identified the right stocks, maybe it was two or three other stocks that would rise and fall out of phase. My easy jet is continuing to rise faster in % terms than IAG and SSP is looking good for a significant spike recovery. The situation with travel opening latter in to the US than to the EU remains, the opportunity is still there and I can't hear any fat ladies singing at the moment.

... 2 steps back. Here is a familiar pattern. Place your bets that tomorrow or Friday will be a pull back around half of the first half weeks gains. Of note again is the SSP recovery - this tells us that there is a growing increase in foot fall in the airports. Certainly the intention to open up travellers into the UK is going to increase bums in the air, but I understand it is only at discussion stage. SO be prepared for a delay in the date because of the mutual recognition of covid passports being delayed UK and EU - which is when the sp will have a one step back moment. Don't bank on Biden being friendly, so far he actually seems to be more inward looking than Trump was! It is just that the media narrative is not skewed towards dissing him. Biden's administration is cutting off a lot of bridges built by the previous administration, it is bizarre but it looks like a regression into old emeny lines in the sand is the order of the day and, like with Obama, the attitude with the UK is luke warm. Therefore I still do not expect any surprise announcement to benefit either the EU or the UK on opening up transatlantic flights to the masses.

I'll get the picks and shovels, you get the bricks and mortar, we'll start at Berwick and work through the night!

has Gove been side-lined? Should have been kicked out of government

when IAG saidt haf enough cash to see it through to 2022, they did not mean based on zero cash flow. They will have factored in a cash flow which hasn't come about. Indeed, summer bookings will now be impaired and most lh bookings will probably have to refunded. I hate to say it but on the balance of probabilities, it is weighted towards needing more money to avoid the iis getting spooked. They can't borrow as the future date fir getting high transatlantic income is a complete guess. It's 60/40 in favour of needing more cash imo.

Just goes to show, chartists are full of it!

SSP is very interesting, and EZY has been on a bit of a roller coaster from below 840 to over 870, whilst IAG has been in a much tighter band. The decoupling of the two shares does seem to me to be more certain. Wonder how much exodus there will be form IAG as Friday results come into focus. Will there be a rights issue?

I want to see EZY in the 1100 bracket before the switcheroo. Transatlantic flights are not going to be happening any time soon so the European routes are more likely to open up more fully with lesser testing requirements. As the cheap test options are passed around viral and people get themselves organised on cheap testing and the probability of another sabotage recedes as the EU begins to recognise which side of its bread is buttered, then I am still hoping that the EU market travel sector will take off a week + ahead of the transatlantic market. There have been hints that the shares in the travel sector are beginning to trade in their own right rather than as a block by the iis computers.

If there is another unexpected sabotage of travel with new rules or bizarre reclassification of countries on travel lists then all bets off and sit it out until a decent 20% return is made on whatever I happen to be holding next spring. Been a profitable but difficult annoying trading year so far, and not what I want to be doing having to keep a constant watch and researching.

Time machine or wonky computer. I'm back living yesterday!

Its now up 0.31%. Early retirement beckoning?

With IAG hovering around zero gain, and Easy 2.5% up, I think this is the largest disparity between the shares I have seen this year. Decoupling still happening?

fugalzi, a 0.25% gain can hardly be described as 'flying'.

Keep your eyes on SSP. They have a significant exposure to the footfall in the airports. If the market is seeing increased passenger activity then that feeds through to increased cash income to SSP and hence higher valuation - SSP is the sort of take-over target the lucky ones are holding when the news drops!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! With the covid depressed price with a lot to recover, any prospect of increased sustainable business makes it a target again and the iis will interest will move the sp. I've noticed SSP to be a very good indicator of the airlines sp movement a day or so in advance.

As I postulated earlier, is there something else influencing this inexplicable resistance to allow travel to resume as before. More and more are trying to give explanation but the facts just don't fit the policies. Perhaps all those negative comments about my suspicions are not appropriate after all. It has felt to me since spring time that there is a big something getting in the way of allowing things to go back to where they were pre-pandemic. Based on my worldly experience I've speculated on some likely causes. Certainly the blocking behaviour of the EU and especially the commission is a truism. I am coming round to the view that the environmentalists have bee throwing spanners in the works via the 'scientific' community to a greater degree than first thought. Certainly keeping the world population under a sort of regulated living using the pandemic with impositions such as mask wearing keeps large sections of the populations subdued and accepting of 'big change'. Such suppression doesn't last forever - fall of the Berlin wall, end of Soviet communism, Arab spring, Mandela, Trump and so on. There is a mind control at work, and it is mucking up my get rich quick scheme to rule the world form my wicker chair as I gaze out over the fields. Time to stop this nonsense and take action. I will start writing strongly worded letters to the UN and WHO. I'll sort this mess out. lol, that old saying, if you want something doing....