Member Info for big-blue

Bit of an eg thinking I would be posting in reply to you?

Surely, the % filled is relative to the seat price? If each seat economy seat sells for twice the previous price then that % must come down. Are you not confusing minimum load factor to retain landing slots?

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-6817

This is probably the most comprehensive study into the effectiveness of mask wearing preventing covid spreading via aerosol. It dates from March 21, a long, long, long time after it was claimed there was evidence sufficient to force mask wearing.

"A total of 3030 participants were randomly assigned to the recommendation to wear masks, and 2994 were assigned to control; 4862 completed the study. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 occurred in 42 participants recommended masks (1.8%) and 53 control participants (2.1%). The between-group difference was -0.3 percentage point (95% CI, -1.2 to 0.4 percentage point; P?= 0.38) (odds ratio, 0.82 [CI, 0.54 to 1.23]; P?= 0.33). Multiple imputation accounting for loss to follow-up yielded similar results. Although the difference observed was not statistically significant, the 95% CIs are compatible with a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection."

The results are a minor reduction, and if you know your statistics you will note "the difference observed was not statistically significant".

What is missing is the rate of transmission due to contaminated masks being touched, then a surface and another person touching that surface. Given how prominent that reason was given for not originally introducing masks in 2020, is it not strange that that particular transmission route has been completely erased from the discussion.

Until this dragon is slain, there will be NO reduction in covid, there will be perpetual spikes of this or that variant and there will be NO return to free travel. It's as simple as that.

Where is your actual evidence and proof, not wearing masks spreads the virus 'faster'? The evidence doesn't exist, only people repeating the same quote they heard elsewhere. All people with symptoms should be self-isolating - the original control measure. Wash hands - the original control measures. All evidence points to exponential increase in spread AFTER masks introduced. I will not be ****ing off with this and one day soon the truth will be in your face and there will be no where to run from it.

This is exactly the same position as it was yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that. This 'announcement' is merely a polite response to an issue raised by a leader and in the public arena. This is the 'empathy' and 'communicative' tact that Trump was supposed to be devoid of. What is Biden thinking? You don't have any clue at all. What was Trump thinking, just read his open thoughts in the tweets [previously]. It is back to smoke and mirrors from the states. Back to trying to second guess. In time, more and more will be pointing out that along with Trump's deficiencies, there were also some advantages that are missed. As far as I can gather, the original sentiment from the chief medical advisor who Biden accepts is that travel will not resume until September at the earliest. Travel is being actively sabotaged. Reasons? Open to speculation but with hindsight everything from the Portugal debacle to date indicates a deliberate delay policy. I suspect any announcement next week will be Thursday at the earliest and will simply repeat what the chief medical advisors assessment was earlier and talk about progress being made to covid passport system integration and the system integration will be the governing factor in an open date, which will be advised in due course!!

"Freedom day Monday 19th
US and UK corridor will open up Monday IAG will be back over 200"

Your source for this declaration?

So, Easy J results on the 20th, sell up on good news and perform the switcheroo to IAG ahead of the Biden admin announcement. Plan is coming together.

If you believe that matters connected to the pandemic and how they are handled are not pertinent to the sp of this stock, then I don't know what to say to you. Why is travel restricted? A fear of spreading the virus. How is the virus spread? Well, you might want to consider what tactics have been deployed so far and what the effectiveness has been. If the WHO announced right now masks should not be worn, what would the impact be on the sp? I have dry powder ready and waiting for the news to break that at least a question is being raised about whether the masks are a help or a hindrance. A lot of that dry powder is aimed at travel stocks because only when certain truths are out will normalised policies be implemented which will rapidly lead to travel opening up.

Occasionally somebody will post information that is worth DYOR - doing your own research - so you can verify to yourself that the information is reliable, although be very careful to check the source of the information as some online sources look authoritative but can end up being a bedsit web page. Most posts merely reflect sentiment, but is that wishful thinking sentiment or somebodies considered opinion. But you should never follow an instruction to buy or sell from a poster you know nothing about. There are a couple of names around who have built up a reputation for apparently calling the market movements right, but these should be viewed as nothing more than punters. Nobody with genuine inside information that will benefit you will ever post that information here. You have to be invited into the private email loops for that.

cammy, as you point out, approaching 50,000 cases a day whilst the mask wearing is enforced. The logical conclusion, with a third wave, is that masks are not working in the sense people are obliged to wear some form of face covering. It is correct that very few wear a mask of any use. The government has made a very significant error allowing places like shops to impose access rules like a mask must be worn. That is in response to a very strong mask lobby that have yet to be properly challenged over their assertions. Next Monday was a major opportunity lost to ditch this requirement and stop the spread of cases. We are creating a potential return to lockdown now. Somebody some where in a prominent position must make the challenge and stop this idiocy. There will be no return to free travel while governments are hyper sensitive to case numbers and continuing with this terrible policy is going to guarantee increasing numbers outside lockdown as is blindingly obvious from the past data anywhere on the planet.

"thankfully to the UK"

I thought it was called the Indian variant because it came from.... India.

Again oracle, you are incorrect. To contract a disease [the over whelming majority of people] you have to take in enough above a critical threshold which is different according to different viruses. It is a factor in determining how contagious a disease is classified as being. Covid is highly contagious, including variants but in room the size of a supermarket with the degree of dispersion in the volume and the rapid dispersion due to air conditioning, the threshold is just not reached. What the air borne build up is specifically referring to is small enclosed spaces with long contact times. That is why the advice to open a window and ventilation was included in the advice very late in the day, in fact only a matter of weeks ago.

Concentrated dabs from the mask are way over the threshold for many carriers, especially those who put the mask on when they leave the hose, wear it driving to the supermarket, and inside. If that person also has spluttering symptoms, they are spreading highly concentrated dabs all over the place.

I believe the four hour survival refers to how long the virus was found to survive on the surfaces of cardboard boxes and other packages when the possibility of importing the virus on parcels was examined. Some countries which were processing hubs quarantined all incoming parcels until they were convinced the virus only lasted a few hours in the open on surfaces. It caused huge chaos and delays into the months for consignments that should have taken a couple of weeks. I remember it well.

It is all academic anyway. Nobody is listening to the real science, only to what is convenient for positions they have adopted and intend to stick by. It is madness, sheer utter madness what is going on now. Unlocking was the path to get past the mask wearing without anybody loosing too much face. But no, some are so scared of what will be revealed they want to impose masks in perpetuity. Madness. If all those deaths wasn't enough, no the entire travel and holiday sector will be demolished just so a few idiots can save face.

https://www.quora.com/How-long-does-a-surgeon-wear-a-mask-for-and-how-often-do-they-touch-their-faces-whilst-wearing-one

"if your mask needs adjusting you ask the circulating nurse to please adjust it. if your brow needs a wipe once again you politely ask the circulator.

the only time you touch your mask is putting it on ( tying the strings) and taking it off. Of note, one doesn’t touch the “ mask” part. Most if not all remove the mask by grabbing the strings"

I repeat, people expressing COVID into masks, the virus builds up, people touch the mask, they touch surfaces leaving a concentrated dab of COVID for the next uninfected person to pick and contract.

This is not some fantasy troll narrative, this is why form the very start it was stated the masks will not work, they will be spreaders of the virus. It should be blindingly obvious. It has only been adopted by suppressing the real truth as it was an anti-trump gesture. Madness.

THE MASKS DO NOT PREVENT THE SPREAD THEY CAUSE IT, YOU GET IN IT IN YOUR HEAD - IT IS WHY THEY WERE DISMISSED RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PANDEMIC.

The mask lobby who have their vanity at stake are terrified of removing masks because they know the virus spread will rapidly decline and the whole mask wearing sham will be exposed for what it has been, a false prospectus that actually lead to exponential spread and thousands of deaths. This is sheer utter madness to continue this stupidity.

So the supermarkets are going to continue imposing a local requirement to wear masks in their stores. This is madness. The hysterical mask lobby has certainly hit the mark with the wall to wall campaign over the last week. Pity those supermarkets didn't do any surveys, they would be told squarely where to stuff those masks. Now it will be all out pressure to force all chains to follow so as not to have one or two with allowing no masks where everybody will go voting with their feet.

Forget about free travelling opening up now for this summer. The lobby groups have so much sway and control they are holding every business to ransom. Airlines will not be allowed to operate freely any time soon unless someone somewhere stands up to this mass hysteria. We are now under as much direct control as north Koreans. What has happened to our freedom? A mask lobby can bully major supermarket chains to force the wearing of a super spreading device against the will of the overwhelming majority of their patrons. Absolute madness.

....... passive deramping. Not with intent, but the IAG price is very tempting at the moment. One single positive word from the US and everything will catapult north for IAG back to 200. But why are so many selling up and moving on? The ending of lockdown and returning to travel seemed to have been introduced in such a messed up way that it all looked quite deliberate, in that governments appear to be opening up but are in reality maintaining as many barriers as possible to sabotage free movement. However, that does not account for me why there is such a steepening of this decline. I've allowed myself to be locked in with Easy Jet because it does not rely on transatlantic and has plenty of intra-EU business with their opening up - yet it too is being marched down aggressively. The zone for switching large funds into IAG for the rebound looks right, but the rate of change is too great and all my instincts are telling me something is being passed around off the wire and it is bad news. If it is the environmental lobby with the reset campaign succeeding in getting a flight movement cap instigated before a resumption of free travel, mark my words there will be a bloody revolution. Cameron for all his faults spotted people getting tired with all this 'green crap'. Something is going on, we will no doubt find out soon. Meanwhile I will continue to expect some outliers to suddenly surge for a few days as rumours take hold. I'm not monitoring all travel stocks but I expect some to be blue at random and then retract just as quickly. Entering a very volatile phase as something is in the air but we don't know what.

I'll start the false rumours; A delta 747 collided with an alien space ship over Austin, Texas and the aliens are threatening to target all aeroplanes unless the prime minister of Iceland agrees to provide a settlement area for immigrant aliens as they don't need shelter from the elements due to their scaley skin.

I've been following flightradar24 throughout the travel lockdown. Dubai was mostly the busiest. It was interesting watching the groups of planes of national carriers repatriating people in bulk in the early days. There was a time when clicking on planes mostly came up as a cargo flight. They are much less now. Cargo put their prices up sky high - I am an importer and reduced imports because of this. Costs are much lower now but many switched back to shipping containers, which is good as long as some numptie doesn't jam up the canal, grrrrr.....

Today programme radio 4 interview, I think you can download it on iplayer or some BBC equivalent of that, interview starts around 8:30am

Jet 2 interview, could have scripted that myself. Biggest problem for travellers, PCR tests. Get rid of them and if you have to test, then do lateral flow. Narrative developing, two tier travelling - business and rich can come and go without testing, plebs can not. If this can be run against the government with its 'levelling up' agenda, we know how easily manipulated they are, they cold be pushed in to PCR U turn quickly. Keep the 360, these things can turn at very short notice.

Now, next target for profiteering in this market. I think I'll begin the savings pile for the next US/ Vegas trip and maybe add an all inclusive Caribbean two or three week cruise. The current travel stock levels and potential recovery levels are right back to where they were at the start of the year -ish. Here we go again......

If ta sneezing yob in Tesco was such a terrible thing, why was mask wearing for people with symptoms not introduced decades ago? And the rule remains, if you have symptoms, you should be staying at home, what we now call self-isolating, anyway as before the pandemic. It was known as 'sick leave' before. The pandemic may result in people now being asked to leave establishments if they have obvious symptoms of any cold/flu/covid and the wider population may find it social unacceptable to a higher degree. And also bear in mind, that rule about always washing fruit and vegetables - I have never bought any food that is on open display because of people coughing and sneezing over the carrots or grapes and picking up food and putting it back down, pre-covid/post-covid I will continue to only buy bagged items.