Member Info for big-blue

How to make friends and influence people;

https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-israeli-mercenaries-fighting-with-far-right-ukrainian-unit/

Sh.iit, it exists!!!!! lol

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.15930.pdf

https://m.made-in-china.com/product/Godl-Mining-Machine-Neffco-Centrifugal-Bowl-Gold-Mining-Concentrator-Bowl-917942415.html

https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/88vm8v/comedy_godl_mining_difficulty_will_drop/

no,no,no,no..
We extract gold from mines, godl from mins. Standard industry practice for new elements. If you don't believe me look it up on google!

"godl"

Is this a new element discovered in one of the mins or something, lol?

"EasiWynns you need to read up on the key principle of deterrence which is "mutually assured self destruction"

You too need read up on it. Unless the principle is each side annihilates itself, the policy is MAD, or Mutually Assured Destruction.
MASD would be a truly mad policy.
However, as I keep pointing out, the Russian nukes are not serviced in full so only there main ICBMs high yield ones have actually had the fissile material routinely replaced with fresh concentrate. They can't just wap a warhead onto the new delivery vehicle and I strongly suspect they don't have enough material for a new warhead or their satan thingy.

The west, certainly the British at Aldermaston, have been routinely refurising and keeping our nukes in prime condition.

If you read between the lines, Putn is desperate to be able to wave the nukes around and be perceived as a threat. The more he does it, the more I get the hint he has little to wave around and compensates with rhetoric. Frankly if he had the awesome devastating arsenal he wants us to believe, he would frankly say nothing and instead allow little leaks in intelligence for the west to see the threat for themselves!

Are you in charge of the Russian invasion too easiwyn? lol

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-lose-ukraine-war-south-ossetia-invasion-soldiers-refuse-fight-1703302?piano_t=1

.. and easiwynns pedals the same tired rhetoric that we are all going to be nuked by Russia unless we roll over. Just listen to what the soldiers from the front line say. The nukes will be in the same state. Why do you think Russia made straight for the reactors? It is desperate to find enough plutonium and weapons grade uranium to cobble together a warhead. The central command has probably know for years most of its warheads have decayed so much they would most likely not even go critical. The detonators would make more of a bang.

Any actual Russian strike would have limited consequences, but the retaliation from the west would delete Russia permanently from the future. We are not afraid of a nuclear exchange. The end result would be rebuildable damage in the west, most likely a lot less damage than a conventional war (see any war in civilian areas) but a whole evil empire and its now constant never ending bullying removed for the rest of history. A nuclear ar with Russia is only a win win for the west.

No 'tree shake'. The large aftermarket sales were not through mm. They were direct share transfers between brokers. mm didn't manage the transaction gathering up sells for a buyer. We don't know if that was a panic buyer fomo, or a panic seller.

For gawds sake WAKE UP!

May 9th is was will be a major pivotal point. Putin had to deliver by then. There are now clear indicators emerging that factions are forming within the Kremlin and Putin's health is rapidly deteriorating under the stress. It is openly said the military operation isn't just a chock up, it is a complete disaster. It just couldn't have gone worse and there is nothing left to fight with. They are having to use sub cruise missiles - there is nothing left. Nato only has to sneeze now and they will have complete air superiority!!

It doesn't matter how nasty you are as a dictator, when it goes this bad, you have merely days left in charge. Putin cannot deliver anything for May 9th, 6 days away.

You bet canny investors will be seeing the writing on the wall. It is often said, last chance to fill up at these prices. This time - it is the real thing. Expect quite a few more large buys over the next couple of days.

https://www.newsweek.com/what-putins-general-was-doing-ukraine-according-top-secret-report-1702801?piano_t=1

Fair summary

I have referenced the ill health reports from a variety of surcs. As you will not I actually gave a range of probabilities or scenarios based on my crystal ball gazing extrapolating the aggregate and source of informed news reports. I also add my own guesses as points to consider based on a view derived from potential events.

Hence, there is no reference to my proposal that one course of action is Putin stands down citing ill health. But I do qualify any ideas I put forward. He is reported to have various ailments with the Pentagon confirming suspicion of Thyroid cancer and Parkinson's. Hell, I diagnosed Parkinson's without any media stories purely from the way he gripped the table. The constitution says the Prime Minister takes over when the President is incapacitated. Putin has already over ruled tha and nominated current spy chief, Nikolai Patrushev to take over during surgery as widely reported. Putin can then not return to power citing health/convalescence long enough for his chosen one to be placed. It is an option.

Other options involve the coup. Or nothing happens. At least I can give references and reasoning along with my estimate of probabilities.

Even if there was some territorial success by some few meters, I can see how this complete failure will be seen in the Kremlin. The extent and size of the failure is truly breathtaking. The army turns out to be less effective than some third world token dictator showpiece, the air force astonishingly poor quality and the whole logistic core a total failure. They can't even protect there key battleships against pea shooters.

And they the immediate and to be long term economic and financial damage. There is no grounds for Russia to remain a permanent member of the UN after threatening offensive use of nukes. Being booted out of the UN inner circle maybe the highest political price. China looks on with alarm as it sees this new ally crumble to dust rather than be a heavy weight in some new world order. China is very very quiet at the moment. Even the Russian bark has been exposed as nothing more than an irritating yap.

Putin's fate has absolutely already been sealed. He is gone. Questions are when and how. 50/50 he is not President May 9th. 30% chance he steps down ill health to control the succession. 70% that even if Putin tries to install someone, a coup will still follow to get a moderate in and unravel the mess as fast as possible. Street insurrection, na less than 20% probability - 80% it will be behind closed doors. Bullets will be needed but not many. Chance of coup during live TV broadcast, maybe 25%.

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-face-coup-putins-defeat-103300133.html

Lots of news outlets tipped!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He has one small exit option, sand down due to ill health. Watch Laverov's movements. Spends a lot of time now out of the country to avoid arrest. You know it is on then.

my 50/50 Putin will not take the saute May 9th stands.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan%E2%80%93Russia_relations

What is this special favour?

If Russia invades Moldova, that is two very disconnected fronts. Certainly game over for Russia. It can't even manage a push in Donbas with concentrated forces and supply lines directly behind it.

On what rational basis would Khaz be 'supplying' troops to fight under Russian command in Ukraine?

when our ICBMs arrive, it will be your last ever post, any where!

quaking in our boots... yawn.
Oh, by the way, when did you last maintain the fissile material in your rusty old nukes?
Let's do it. let's get it over with. You first.