Member Info for big-blue

The price rise took of last year due to a shortage of qualified drivers. China going back into lockdown made matters worse and the war only added some issues much latter. Actual gas and oil supply restrictions are relatively recent effects.

https://theodora.com/pipelines/asia_oil_gas_and_products_pipelines.html

Not a lot of capacity east compared with

https://theodora.com/pipelines/russia_ukraine_belarus_baltic_republics_pipelines_map.jpg

Green is oil, red gas, blue other

Kill it off? In what way? I posted inks to pipelines a while ago when more enlightened people were considering oil exports from Russia to the far east and there was precious capacity with large mountain ranges in the way. There is also very limited shipping available. Pointing out the physical limitation to transport the stuff is hardly killing off a subject.

Just track western involvement in business in Russia, Russia being accepted to make the G8, then kicked out again to make a G7. A 10 year time scale to regain trust is perhaps conservative. Give it 15 to 20 years based on experience this century.

" 3.36 million metric tons in May"

For a country the size of India, that isn't much. Also, that is probably the maximum possible flow meaning all other customers have their supply choked off. India may have flow, but what about the rest, especially if ****stan is now losing out. Both polish the shiny nosecones of their nukes you know.

The only stock that is doing well out of this is Rose Tinted Glasses Inc. Many of those private companies left entirely of their own accord, who told MacDonald's to leave, all the high st shops and a vast range of technical and engineering companies not in the headlines who's activities were well clear of any sanctions and well before many sanctions were applied. Why do you think one of the first comments out of poly was to announce a possible splitting up of the company?

I am astonished at how much some here want to pretend thwar is largely irrelevant and if only that Zelensky chap would run away then everything would just switch back to as it was before as if nothing happened. Well it isn't going to happen and it is time some of you started to get real. There is going to be a new geopolitical order and even if there is a major coup in the Kremlin with a full change of faces it will be at least a decade before the west has any trust in Russia.

"You do know how the stockmarket works? "

Oh yes I know how the 'stock market' works, and how to spell it.

There is something called 'risk'. Look it up. The geopolitical situation and trust factor will be significantly different post war. The risk assessment will be very different. I originally didn't want or expect a split, I have changed my mind now and would recommend isolating anything on Russian (current Russian!!!!) turf from all the other assets. As far as divvies are concerned, there maybe a claim on Russian based businesses for 25 years for reparations through export taxes for rebuilding Ukraine. Even if Russia actually took territory, Russia itself would need to raise money for rebuilding.

Anybody believing the world will simply revert to the previous positions, French and German leaders included, need to make some aromatic coffee. Consider the reaction of independent business in the west without any sanctions and how they simply dumped Russian assets and completely withdrew. £4.50 was generous!

You wish I would sing it and be instantly banned for life due to the utter filth.... I am no Captain of the Saga.

https://www.turing.ac.uk/news/security-experts-warn-russian-disinformation-targeting-global-audiences

We know a song about this, don't we Billy.....

"Big Blue there will not be WW3. It will end in talks, France and Germany know this, which is why Macron has repeatedly spoken to Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations."

Not sure I am advocating there will be a WWIII. Mistakes could be made but I don't think they will be allowed. As far as France and Germany being on some mission to sue for peace, more like a mission to feather their own nests and wiggle back to easy cheap fuel with the basic EU anti-American orientation restored, and for Marcon especially a major selfish face saving exercise. France and Germany having being playing the peace broker card between Ukraine and Russia for many years have been humiliated by Putin who has played the two countries and the EU as puppets. Macron's dented ego is about protecting him, not Ukraine. For Fance, Germany, Europe and the past and present leaders, the security and democracy and freedom of Ukraine is very low on their list of priorities. They want to end the war for purely selfish reasons.

And that is important because two worlds are going to emerge, those urging barriers and ultra caution again dealing with Russia thereby impacting business transactions, and those who have covert sympathies looking east and still believe they can influence the likes of Russia and China to be western styled semi-controlled selective democracies who recognise a pecking order of state hierarchy, notably with France and Germany at the top table. Big money spinners with significant interests in Russia may well find themselves constantly being pulled between the two systems. The history of BP in Russia post 1989 maybe a case study to note. Likewise, poly may not escape the real politic and any post war uplifting in a very different world maybe subdued because of this. I am not expecting to see any sp restoration above £4.50 as there will be a new political instability factor priced in no matter what the mining figures or corporate results.

No negotiated end, humiliating end for Russian army. Generals must call an orderly withdrawal, or else the already fractional groups are just going to turn on each other more out of losing anger. We don't want them fighting each other across Donbas, we need them off Ukraine territory all together.

Some say the end is months of stalemate, I say it will be fast and immediate.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2022/06/06/two-most-senior-russian-commanders-in-donetsk-killed-in-ukrainian-ambush/

Very low number of trades. IIs must think completely unrelated events not having any impact on the near or even mid-term. Are they right?

Not relevant to poly, you may skip this;

https://www.novinite.com/articles/215382/Lavrov%27s+Visit+to+Serbia+has+been+Canceled+due+to+the+Actions+of+%3Cb%3EBulgaria%3C/b%3E+and+NATO+Members

Of no interest to poly investors as the war in Ukraine and Russian threats to offensively nuke anything that moves is not related to any share prices, let alone a Russian gold miner, you can skip this and concentrate on relevant wishful thinking ramping elsewhere.

Russia threatens to nuke Bulgaria.
https://www.novinite.com/articles/215386/Head+of+Roscosmos+Threatened+%3Cb%3EBulgaria%3C/b%3E+with+a+Nuclear+Missile

Of no interest to poly investors;

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/837311.html

It is almost certain a certain significant people involved with a gold miner with assets in Russia would be impacted with these proposals. Any point in keeping an eye on this or variables or events that could lengthen or shorten the war making such sanctions more or less likely.

Perhaps we do need LSE to provide a new bb aimed at people looking to consider issues that may affect the poly sp and hence what investment strategies to employ.

Work? For somebody? Those days are long gone.

Those who think war, especially involving Russia, is not relevant, skip this.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/would-putin-attack-nato-territory-to-stop-missile-shipments-to-ukraine/

In assessing whether the prospects of the company are dire due to a long war, or good due to the war ending very soon, if Putin strikes weapon supplies within nato that will be the trigger for nato to strike inside Russia. How long would Russia sustain that? Everything for me points to the war ending very soon, although the fourth Sunday for my quick ending has now passed.

Yeah, paid oodles of money to influence the sp.

Just to prove it, BUY BUY BUY POLY NOW. The sp will now double and I will be paid a £200,000 bonus by my employer, Big Bucks Mega Corp.

Foor, sometimes people need to bump up the number of trades so they qualify for the high number discounts offered by their platform, some are 'pinging' crest through their terminals to test response time [ready for rapid trading], some to try and poke mm software to reverse engineer the spread calculation and also some just setting up crest accounts verifying and testing access with small trades in low volume environments.