Member Info for Beo1

Sale & Leaseback, its a false economy, yes they can release some equity, but that isn't for free, instead of paying interest on the £10m (or so) that it cost to buy, they are paying it on £12m, whilst earning next to nothing by keep that money in the bank, unless they use the excess capital to invest elsewhere at a ROI > Implicit interest cost of the lease

Stumpy, what you say on here vs how you trade seem to be out of balance. Your TA view suggested sub 400p once, why did you not wait for that entry point to get in? Instead you bought in higher despite warning on here it was going to drop.

Yes, they had made £200m lost Q1 to Q3 last year, Q4 was £663m, so full year profit was £455m PBT, tax was £108, getting you to £347m PAT. The £750/£770m for Q4 is PBT btw, so circa £570m PAT

Q4 last year was £667m so £750m isn't actually that optimistic (this is for the quarter only not the full year). I'd be disappointed with lest than £770m for the quarter, thats based on 11% YoY increase, which covers you for holidays and flight capacity being up. 1st 2 QTR's were up 22% YoY, Q3 was 11%,

He said he expects a drop on friday then it will start rising again (eg Speed Mach 6)

Because historically that's when it has been released, check out the RNS's for last few years around October time

In other words, UK only:- Business X returns / £9b cost (just an indicative number of invesment cost as standalone) and Business Y returns / £5b cost or Business X + Y / £11b cost. EG there is an element of economies of scale that the investment cost will not be the sum of the parts. So thus now making the returns good enough to justify the large capital commitment

Perhaps, but if the Return on that capital is less than their cost of capital, because the consumer wont pay enough for it, then their isn't the point. You keep rattling on about divestments and not spending the capital, but if it the returns aren't there then it shouldn't be core to the business. Your basically advocating negative FCF on the "hope" that at some point the end user will pay for it, I'd say that nots really sound business judgement

No chance, that news was available pre market and didn't effect our start! plus the costs will be minimal,

The strike info, is 100% specific to EZJ, due to moving its base of operations. Ryanair comment on fares "could" be seen as systemic. the MM's moving all the airlines at exact same time and same sort of gradient, its not that IMO

Not really, the MM's are dropping all the UK airlines at the same rate, Its the O'Leary Comment IMO, MM spooked that it cascades to all airlines IMO

Idiot must still be talking, we are dropping like a brick here at the moment

They have over supply issues and crap airplanes, "they" are having to heavily discount to sell those spare seats, EZJ haven't got those issues, other airlines are all saying the Yields are flat, this is an Ryanair specific issue at the moment. I say at the moment but for flights we run tandem, if Ryanair are having to discount so heavily, there does come a point where its too cheap to the consumer to ignore

All the UK listed airlines drop big at same time? any news out?

Well you've all given it the kiss of death!

He wasn't responding to you, he was responding to a response you had, "Dog of a share"

But there will be buy orders that we cannot see or they are unmatched, which then shows up in the UT

TBF we have a larger share, and NewCo will be 50/50 to begin with, so yes we are giving away market share, but yes we "can" buy that market share back over time at the pre-agreed premium thats implied in the merger.

I say rarely on past performance, but obviously the results give a high confidence level to the outlook being achievable, so they do play a part

The SP is rarely based on Past performance, its based on future performance. So whilst the "Past" results were good, the market feels reservation on the outlook (not next 3 months but multiple years). There's no point growing passenger numbers by 10% if the RASK drops by 2% as that dilutes profitability and subsequently FCF. And the outlook for EZJ said the future RASK was flat at best, Ryanair messaged it was materially down, The market is caught between the 2 but airing on the side of caution and assuming Ryanair has called it right as they are the dominant player. It will take improved outlook messaging in the market and EZJ for the momentum to rebuild.

The SP 2 months ago at 570p wasn't based on the prior X months results, it was based on what the potential next 5 years could look like, and at the moment the next 5 years to the market don't look as good as they did, hence the lower SP and very little volume of buys at this low SP. Basically all the airlines said Yield was flat or down, it will take positive sentiment that is on its way up again IMO