Member Info for Beo1

Sorry should qualify the Q3 dropped comment,

H1 Revenue was up 22% YoY, 11% of that was passenger volume related, the rest is Yield / Holidays (so 11%)

Q3 revenue was up 11% YoY, 8% of that was passenger volume, the rest is Yield / Holidays (so 3%),

So Q3 saw a drop in both passenger growth numbers and Yield went from circa 8% growth to 1% growth. Its my belief that the drop in growth is then why the estimates by analysts have been revised downwards. But this position is still better than what was then feared for post Ryanair drop. hence our SP movement upwards, but the SP 700p is still a bit away i believe.

So after Q3 dropped i revised down my estimates for FY. I have it as Q4 £770m, fo FY £656m

The average estimates previously value this at £711m, which is why i think the consensus dropped their targets.

based on 11% Revenue Growth and EBITDA costs at 72.4% of revenue for the Qtr, based on PY at 73.5% (1.5% YTD improvement in cost % CY vs same period prior year). Depreciation at Q3 values.

My work laptop doesn't allow me to view the link unfortunately so had to take the comment at face value

Not strictly true. If that depreciation has gone up due to capital additions, those additions didn't come for free. Operating cash flow Free cash flow, but you didn't distinguish

Soon be back where we were before reporting a good set of numbers. Going to be a long road this, market sentiment (in total and airlines) >>>> solid individual fundamentals

I thought the results were positive. Germany TV Bundles is a big headwind yet they are still growing overall.

Apart from the FTSE has improved as the day as gone on and we are sliding. But this midday time always seems to be a drag on the SP for some reason

I get that the Easter period PY comparison makes this comparison hard, but on the face of the update, the Holidays is what makes these numbers good, the Airlines is OK (which in itself is good, considering the Ryanair update), but 600p + seems a bit of a way off at the moment.

Im not so sure this is as gangbusting as some had hoped. YoY PBT is up £33m for the QTR, Holidays was up £24m of that, so Airlines was up £9m PBT (so 6%) on 8% more Revenue, Obvioulsy Holidays is part of the business so needs to be taken into account, but clearly cost / Yield pressures are in the Airline business for Q3.

I still think we are in a better position than 9 days ago, so all these drops in the meantime should be recovered (all things being equal - which they are not) but those expecting 600p + in the short to medium turn will be disappointed IMO

Good results, but only issue is the FY outturn is probably behind the Avg Analysts, but that just means the highs of 700p + might not be as near as we hoped. But the Earnings are definitely on track for 550p + not the lows we are currently trading at

Honestly so bad maths. When you trim you can't bank the profit as a deduction to your average price. Because theoretically if you are then you made a loss on disposal of those assets, you cant have it both ways. Or if you do try and paint it that way, it would be balanced to then say how much "realised" loss you also have. Also this method isn't acceptable for HMRC!

It never did. Its basically said 20% of EPS will be returned as dividend (EG 20% of PAT). and a PE of 10:1 thats effectively a Dividend Yield of 2%, so not sure where you get 4.5. Also the Q3 update is unlikely to divulge any more information on Dividend.

To be clear. Ryanair (and over published media) and shown demand is UP. by 10% in Ryanair's case. It has not colapsed, it just didn't grow as much as they had planned for.

Demand is up YoY, However you wish to dress that up is still up. Is it up as much as airlines hoped (and supplied to), NO!. But that is due to the airlines hoping (forecasting) that demand would be up even more, its those forecasts that have created and over-supply in the market. You could argue those forecast's were based on sound assumptions, but those assumptions have been proven wrong in Ryanair's case, so they have manufactured an over-supply because they had anticipated demand to increase even more than it has done. Considering Ryanair numbers grew 10% YoY, you could also argue that gearing up to capacity beyond a 10% increase was ambitious rather than prudent.

No it doesn't

Passenger numbers are up on last year, in nearly all available published media. The issue is over supply, Ryanair have chosen to drop Yield to maintain load factors in this over-supply. I think its naive to think Ryanair dropping their prices has zero effect on EZJ. If Ryanair are offering dirt cheap flights then people will think twice about booking an EZJ flight if EZJ haven't dropped theirs in someway to price match

So not adding, thanks for the input

Ryanair Results Happened

I reckon costs will not be as bad as Ryanair, but the additional capacity across the sector (albeit we don't truly know the markets impacted) means that although a big chunk of the extra capacity was filled (Ryanair up 10% passengers) it came at a cost,

Ironically, the market has priced in the downside, but if our results were just as bad as Ryanair the SP wouldn't stay as it is, it would drop again. Im confident we will hit north of £250m but the messaging around Q4 will be key

Even if it hit £1b PBT like its medium term target, £10 puts it at a PE ratio far out of kilter than any other airline. At least try and make your ramping believable

Volume is up 10% its the yield they are struggling with, basically oversupply in the market means they have had to drop prices