Member Info for Beo1

The market value for a company is for the assets and liabilities, not just the liabilities.

Although TBF they were covered before, £1.8m vs £1.2m, but the buyback and cancel of shares, the double entry means the credit side goes into accumulated losses, as basically your implying your buying back shares from the profits, so the £799m to date (b/s date) of cancelled shares means accumulated losses increase £142m

Yes the dividend payout element is normally booked on a cash basis not an accruals basis in the accounts. So the increase in accumulated losses is for the reason noted. going forward it is covered by earnings.

No he's talking about the Balance sheet, equity section. Which shows that the dividend payments aren't covered by profits so the continual increases in the accumulated P&L loss line

Its all a bit of a nonsense really! Its like the Germany information came as a surprise, the company has been messaging this for some time, taking the hit in the SP at times too. Then the actual change starts to impact and it comes as a surprise and they take the SP down again. Despite everything else performing well

It hasn't plummeted though has it? Volume at Ryanair was up materially, the issue is they had anticipated it going up even more and built up capacity to that expectation. Volume then softened against there expectations and they had to discount to fill those seats.

Yes it a British saying, it means if you are stuck in a hole, then digging any more makes that hole deeper and harder to get out of. Not that you are purposely trying to dig a hole in the beach and seeing how far you can go

Maybe this is Kenton's watch now and he doesn't want to issue the trading update, poor form really, as the absence of the update causes more issues than it solves IMO

They barely make a return above the cost of capital as it is. Paying off debt (typically around 3% to 4% after the tax shield) will make the equity portion (typcially 10%+ with no tax shield) of the cost of capital a lot more. Simply paying off the debt is not the answer, they are removing the elements below the cost of capital (making the new ROCE higher) and keeping the gearing relatively unchanged. If they kept the buyback cash in the business to pay off debt, they couldn't make enough return on it, so if you can't add accretive value for the shareholders, you return that money to them, not make them a bigger % of the business

That's the full year results. Every October around this time (not set time is needed to be given) they provide a Q4 trading update

Typically volume increases are matched with direct costs, EZJ revenue last year was £8.1b, PBT was £0.5b, so 5% operating margin, but of the 95% costs, some of them will be indirect costs that don't flex with volume, but alot will be direct (fuel cost at 26% of revenue, and other direct costs (like food, plane staff etc), I guessed at 90% just for illustration, but the point is that 10% increase in seats flown, alot of that extra revenue will have extra costs to offset, whereas a 10% change to Yield drops straight down to the bottom line.

I'm invested here, not as large as i was but £15k at 481.85. I have confidence that the SP will continue upwards, but I'm not naive enough to think that whole of market yield pressures dont effect EZJ. I dont think I've ever seen a "balanced" response from you, its always sunny side up regardless, which is fine but others can then offer the balanced view IMO

What are you on about? I used 25% simply because you have thrown that number about previously, no more no less. You implied it was something they could do easily, But by your own numbers 4% of the flights are holidays, meaning 96% are effectively in a market that is commodity based to a large degree, so highly dependent on the movements in air fare yields. yet your also trying to imply EZJ isn't the same as other airlines, we have the holiday dynamic etc etc. Yet that is 4% so in my opinion is not large enough yet to make that claim

I should add, Im aware the Yields and Margins are high on the holiday business, but that is currently X% (so Y% is still air fares which will be impacted by the overall softening of the Yield), over time the X% should increase, leaving us less exposed to the air fare Yield issues, but we are not there yet, and whilst 25% might be achievable in the medium term, it is not a tap, because if it was we would be at 25% now, is the point Im trying to make

I really do.

You have claimed previously that EZJ can fill 25% of the planes with holiday customers. we all know the Yields are better doing this, and yet they dont? have you not asked why they don't just turn this golden tap on? is it because the management dont see it, or because the demand isn't there for that yet, yes over time that might be possible but we aren't there yet, so we are impacted by simple air fare yields.

Not really

Firstly capacity issues, EZJ only has so many planes, so more demand doesn't always soak up the less rate

Plus 10% increase in demand (in air fares only) = approx a 1% margin increase, a 10% drop in fares = 10% margin decrease. Its why the SP has moved around so much on fear of lower Yields, despite all the traffic data saying demand is up.

"In reality the drop in air fares at the end of the summer is completely normal. They fell more than normal because in the peak time they were higher than normal."

Again thats not how inflation works, illustration below

Q4 2023 100

Q1 2024 110

Q2 2024 120

Q3 2024 160

Q4 2024 90

its simply the 90 vs the 100 that inflation measures, everything else inbetween is just noise (until next year and you have them high values to measure against)

Ignore the last bit it cut off a chunk. but the point is, the 1.7% isnt measuring the costs this month vs last month, as that does create cyclical anomalies. it is measured this year vs last year, and therefore we are charging less per seat this year vs the exact same period (so with the same discounting principles) last year

You understand how inflation works in the UK (not US as they present it funny). It the YoY increase, so if they always do it they would have done it last year too, but they are still down on that number, inflation is presented in the UK as a monthly increase

TBF you asked him to re-read the board for your updates, he asked you to clarify how on 2 dates you have contradicting comments, and rather than answer, you filtered him.