Member Info for Beo1

And what will even turn that tide? IAG tomorrow, will probably be a bad read again. After that what will change the market sentiment to turn this upwards again, just can't see anything until November time unfortunately as their isnt much love for airlines right now.

Inflation is at Target at a total level, Small inflation is good, countries need an element of inflation to fuel GDP growth. So why would you need interest rates at >5% to stifle the economy, the high rates served the process of bringing down the rate of inflation from 10%+ to 2%, they dont then need to be the same level to maintain that rate, IMO

Not really. HMRC are after a definitive point it stops moving. Otherwise you'd be filling in self assessments daily. Posting gains and losses. They want you to pay tax on the point its finished, and wont be fluctuating anymore. To imply that the HRMC process makes your theory correct is a bit much.

Not sure how you can read anything like that from the numbers on show? Not much volume being traded, 500k and the reported buys are only 3/5. It doesn't appear to be Buys propping this up. This is MM taking it down along with all the other airlines on the back of Wizzair. None of the rest of what you have said is worse today than it was yesterday IMO

Its the same thing, depending on the term of the wet leases, anything over 12 months is then accounted for as Depreciation. IFRS16

On you example, if you are now investment + £40k, then thats the comparable value when comparing investment vehicles, will Lloyds grow more than it is already quicker than taking that investment and using it in investment 2. you wouldn't compare the investments opportunities on the original investment value as thats a sunk cost and now has zero relevance.

I'm an accountant and always value my assets like a company would be. So the lower of cost and NRV (net realisable value), considering the net realisable value here is what I would make if I sold it now, then I am holding it the current SP. What you paid for it is now irrelevant, its a sunk cost, what is it worth right now. Its also why i get frustrated with people who work out Yields on the original investment value and not the current value (as its the current value that is the opportunity cost of being able to invest elsewhere)

To be fair, I can see why they might drop today, dropped guidance it seems after 3 months, all due to grounded fleet etc, but that's new for the market for wizzair, but unique to them. The bit that's partly cross sector is positive and should give a better read across to EZJ

Their not "New" awful. The grounded fleet is badly hurting their top line and bottom line. It's reducing their capacity so volume is flat, and wet leasing planes to protect the routes is costing them a lot. This isn't New information.

What is New is that Yield is up and expected to be up for the year, low mid single digits. It's Ryanair's yield that killed us last week. They claimed we all would see yield down, but we said flat wizzair are saying up. This is in some way proving Ryanair yield issue is theirs only. I get the business class and long hauliers are saying yield down too but their less comparative IMO

Mmm, don't think it will, US Airlines plummeted in the last hour.

But really frustrating, at time of writing this, we are the worse of UK airlines today, and most of the US airlines. On a big green day on the FTSE and US markets. Whilst also having little reported volume, showing.

Whilst I'm not saying this summer doesn't count. But the SP is predicated on multiple years of Earnings, so the ability to capture Yield is the pressing issue right now, We were flat, others messaging down. literally, results here showed, for every 10% of Volume growth = 1% Yield growth. so the market needs to see that Yield growth outlook to come back before we see SP rises (or at least belief its there). Thankfully for us, the Holidays "volume" changes that dynamic somewhat, but as its only 13% of revenue (but 23% of profit) its not currently seen as being the main driver IMO

Think your being optimistic on the holidays, EZJ have messaged they think FY is £180M, that means £76 for Q4 vs PY of £59m. But based on flat Yields, I dont think we will be hitting £700m for FY IMO

You keep saying this, but where are you getting that number from? Last Year they made £663m PBT / 92 days = £7.2m per day. This year you think profit YoY is going up nearly 25% when last QTR is was only 16% YoY. What are you expecting to be the Full Year out-turn? as maths off the £9m per day takes us £700+?

So what your saying is that very short haul flights to western Europe are cheaper than longer flights to eastern Europe. Also how does this compare to last year. Looking at flights to different destinations isn't a good barometer for how the Yield has fared YoY

The fact they had harder comparables is a bit mute, we both saw volume increases of nearly 10%, but we didn't have over-supply and need to discount & Ryanair's heavy discounting didnt affect our Yield.

We'll see next week, bunch of earnings coming out and non zero chance we have SP movement off the back of them despite our results already being out.

But an element is already priced in. But then negative sentiment around the industry is then suppressing the PE ratio. See AIG, their PE is even lower than ours. Basically there isn't enough profit in the good years to get you through bad years, so the PE reflects that IMO. The holidays growth should help that to some degree, but the market still believes its not immune from the cost of living issues we are seeing at the moment, so EZJ needs to prove it is.

My numbers below would put it at 66.4p

Should let you edit posts,

H1 Total Yield 11%, holidays was 5%, so Airline Yield was 6%

Q3 Total Yield was 3%, holidays was 4%, so Airlines Yield was (1)%

Effectively their is no costs for the Airline Yield (yes I get cost inflation, but for this purpose its a sunk cost as it happens regardless), so that Airline Yield growth change is all profit "lost" that the analyst's will see as not happening now.