Member Info for Beo1

X2 Large buys right at the end. Some delayed reported trade from a few days ago or really from today?

I work for a part of a company that effectively rents and leases vans to other parts of the business (similar to BT Fleet before the spin off). Part of my job is the pricing and understanding the eternal market. Enterprise are the dominant player in this space, making big moves in the B2B area, typically underpricing everyone else by nearly 10 to 15%. So on a pure rental element of the business model its hard to compete with that. The bit that Northgate does differently is life to 2 years (everyone else is 4 or more years) what that effectively does it means your business model becomes more geared to 2nd hand resale and not just the rental side, and it creates high risk too. at 2 year lives they are selling 2nd hand vans at 72% of original cost, so £21.5k, whereas 5 year lives are more 25%, so £7.5k, it doesn't take genius to see a 10% drop in 2nd hand values has a more profound impact on zigup than it does on say Enterprise.

Ever heard of economies of scale? at the moment you have 2 operators building out the infrastructure and x2 lots of shops/support staff. I fairly certain in the medium to long term they wont operate as 2 brands it will just be vodafone. so the synergies from that just drive value

OMG I'm not doing this well, it would be £50 gain, 50 x (2 less 1) and average cost would by £1 on 150.

Sorry, thats a bit wrong, they are the purchases, but she will take the Initial Investment so £100 in this instance and / 150 now, so 0.67 but the true average cost is still £1, its just you realised £100 of gain

Totally agree, although i think its this trimming where she does it.

Buy 100 @ 1

Sell 50 @ 2

But back 100 @ 1

now has 150 @ 1, still wrong, as you average cost is simply the average value of your purchases, no more no less

But bear in mind Mary's average cost is not the actual average cost, as she doesn't bank profits in her calculation, instead she rolls them into her cost number, hence how she can get near to 0

Average Cost

Are you using PBT for the P/E? as you should be using PAT or just take their EPS number of 61.5 / 550

Where are you getting PE of 6.4? the EPS was 61.3p so a PE of 9 on todays SP.

Thats the thing Q1 to Q3 numbers were great. but the market knew that, what it didn't know with certainty was Q4 and beyond, we now know Q4 was good not great, and the promise of Q1 and beyond is great again, but the will be caution on that outlook as some of it is estimated. thats why the SP has gone up but not massively IMO

In terms of market expectations, in kind of was, those who read the updates know the Q1 to Q3 performance, the unknown was Q4 and for me that was underwhelming. not the lower revenue growth, but the fact costs went up by a higher %. you can come across as very condescending. if people don't follow your glass half view approach then you attempt to belittle them. I fully understand the opportunity in Q1 to Q3, my point is we knew how well they did here. but the extra revenue in Q4 came at a lower margin % than last year, so the squeeze on costs was worse than the extra revenue, but it was still profitable. but for me it was underwhelming. the SP will move up, but this update was not the smoking gun to differentiate us from the whims in airline SP movements, so the near term higher SP moves out to a later date IMO

Whilst the Full Year numbers look good, I was a bit underwhelmed by the Q4 element. The QTR updates for revenue were 22%, 21%, 11%, Q4 9%. Whereas costs were 20%, 14%, 11% Q4 10%. So negative leverage on the fixed cost base they have. I was more impressed with the outlook.

Didn't help getting 2 downgrades I guess.

Thats what the like for like means (down 0.3%) eg for those stores that where in the start and end of the period how did there sales do. Considering Yield is part of that 0.3%, it would suggest the volume is broadly flat YoY, so the incremental stores aren't (at a total level) just about moving the demand

Just bought back in today, as I trade on fundamentals predominately and for me even at the low end of Full Year profit thats a PE of

Just read back the posts, Full Year PBT £656m

Sorry, not sure if we are Q4 only or YTF, but Q4 PBT £770m, Full Year £656m

Its the 3rd Tranche, Tranche 2 (which was extended to £520m) ended in the last couple of days, they are now starting tranche 3 (of 4). then another bunch of £2b when Italy completes

But the MCAP is based on having that debt, you can't compare the 2 in the way you have, really its £57m / (£57m + £17m MCAP) = gearing of 77% of MCAP (the actual gearing uses Net book values not MCAP, so the actual gearing is a lot less. But even on 77% of MCAP thats not actually that high. Debt isn't bad! its cheaper than equity and offers a tax shield. IF they used all the money from sales to pay down debt, the debt gearing % becomes smaller (the after tax cost of debt will be sub 4%), the equity element becomes larger (no tax shield so cost of equity >10%), considering the after tax ROCE is so low, you make equity a bigger proportion then effectively they would be destroying shareholder wealth, you might think they are now, there not, they are prioritising returning that wealth in Dividends, they aren't destroying it