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My Mrs works there, so we have the options, A bunch at 99p and a bunch at £2. So indirectly invested that way. But looking to get in with my personal portfolio, hopefully in the 240p range, but ok if i dont get the opportunity as the options effectively give us over 11.5k of shares. They were both oversubscribed otherwise would have tried to get the full £500 allowance at the 99p as it was a steal. Only got just short of 50% though.
Anyway, she works in one of the stores, there "Forecast", (not sure if the sum of all these store forecasts = the estimate they give to the market) but they were down for £94m turnover for the year, but they have messaged internally this store hit £98m, so nearly 5% over the estimate, not saying all the stores will be like this but I have a feeling the next results (or trading update) will be strong again, just the outlook messaging that could depress the SP.
If its 22b now and drops 4b but shares are cancelled them my investment in vod is unchanged. Do you understand that? As you keep repeating the overall market cap numbers and not the effect on the SP, which numerous people are saying would be neutral, so our investments are neutral as a result of the buybacks (I'm not arguing if the sp is neutral, I agree there would be an improvement, but for different reasons and a smaller amouny) most invested in here were here long before talk of buybacks and see other reasons why the SP will improve, we are not invested for the buybacks alone, as many believe to be totally neutral. Before regurgitating the same nonsense, read what I have said. You really are a tiresome individual, who may have some valid points that get lost in your bile.
Your just making numbers up. You have no idea what the value would have been if they had £xb more cash instead of the buybacks, that cash could have been used for loans etc, buying tesco bank instead of barclays. You've just applied one part of the maths, which seems a recurring theme with you.
So day 1 vodafone buys back 1% of shares. The SP doesn't move due to buybacks? Only what the Market decides? Haven't you just agreed we are correct then? If the buybacks don't cause the SP to move then x less shares = lower market cap.
But he's not saying its not am investment, he's saying the market cap drops, shares in issue drop = SP stay the same, so his investment is flat. I personally believe there will be some SP growth but not in a linear way. Reduced float will reduce supply and demand should improve as the future earnings improve due to loss making markets being exited, but not purely as a result of buybacks. Ironically I was in barc, they spent last couple of years doing sizeable buybacks, it wasn't till a while after they finished that the SP went north, loads of factors involved I get it. But at no point did you see x shares purchased and cancelled and a correlation to the SP compensating
My point is, at its current status how can you arrive at any value of that division? if nearly 80% of the turnover is with 1 hook customer, who just so happens to be yourself. So yes the external needs to grow alot before any real value can be attributed to that part of the business
You missed my point, sorry its 80%, I read the numbers previously but through out a rough number simply to illustrate the point, that being where 77% of your turnover, is internal to other divisions, then its a bit misleading to throw out the total revenue number when implying value. IMO
Which is exactly what most are saying. The buybacks wont have the effecting on the individual share price that LTI is suggesting. so if it doesn't affect the SP by the value he hopes but the shares in circulation drop by 20% by the time all the buybacks are done. If the SP hasn't moved, then what effect does that have on the Market Cap? Answers on a postcard
Thats just not correct. Little chance the volume players are buying for the dividend to then sell, to drive the ex div drops (which mostly mirror the dividend yield %). The market opens with a drop similar to the dividend % just recorded, before any real volume has started. It drops because the company has just committed to paying out a sizeable value of cash with no value to the business. Yes the movements post the open is then is some way due to what you mentioned. hence why sometimes the % drop is better or worse than the equivalent dividend % that was recorded
Are you saying that a companies book value of assets have absolutely zero value in the SP? You don't think II will use it for there risk / reward on buying into a stock? and therefor if there is a safety net of a high NAV in comparison to the MV then that results in less risk. Less risk means more potential investors in a company, more investors means more demand means potentially a higher share price.
Its not the be all and end all, totally agree, but it 100% plays a part in an investors appetite in the stock.
Wither way LTI is muddling up 2 different events and claiming the buybacks is the catalyst for the SP increase.
Take 2 identical company's (both have underperforming elements - to the same degree, everything is exactly the same at this point)
Company A keeps the assets and continues to have depressed earnings / cash flow as a result of this
Company B sells this assets, the earnings and cash flow improve as the drag is now gone.
Think we all agree Company B would see some improvement in there SP?
Now, lets say both company's decided to sell the assets.
Company A keep the cash and reduces the net debt position resulting in a NAV of say £10b
Company B uses the cash to buyback shares, lets say £4b, resulting in a NAV of say £6b
Which company would probably have the higher market cap? A surely? But which would have the higher share price? Neither immediately! I've tried to lay this out very binary and yes other factors contribute to the market cap which cloud the impact of buybacks.
However, as I have already mentioned there is an element of supply and demand of the shares left in issues, if you are removing 20% of the shares then the remaining shares are harder to come by, so an increase is SP would come about, but not as a direct result of the buyback.