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I was in at ITV and close brothers in last month and made my exits prices and got out, but then they rose a decent amount higher, so that may be swaying my reasoning 🤣
Yes me too, thought the drop was over done at got in at 110p mainly trying to play the peaks and troughs with it, but with a feeling that its undervalued due to the large drop. Got about 12k shares but hindsight wish i put more of my bank roll on it but with it being retail was a bit hesitant. Up over 12.5% on my investment which is more than i try and play to, but feel this has legs and struggling to find more blue chip companies to invest in where they are on the downside of there DMA so opportunity cost is telling me I should stick for now
Its all relative isn't it. Yes its not a 20% up update, but the 25% drop wasn't a 25% drop update either IMO
Also I get why the market like LFL sales, but can be a bit misleading, if people want to shop at JD they will travel a reasonable distance to do it, eg we prefer trafford centre that our local town centre shop due to the range, but if they opened up a new larger store nearer we'd go that, just using me as an example that would mean trafford centre LFL would drop. At a macro level opening new stores doesnt just give you new custom it takes away some of that custom from other stores in the group.
For me, the update and forward guidance as shown it's not as bad as what caused the SP to tank earlier in the year, even in a challenging year ahead with some tough comparatives in the H1 they are saying there will be good headline growth and moderate bottom line growth. Feels that we are in a better shape than what the market recently priced us at
Yes but they also point out H1 comparatives were very strong, so doesn't mean H1 will be bad just that there'll be little YoY change, but as last year softened in H2 that's when we can start to see strong YoY metrics
Initial impressions is that it's an OK update, forward guidance shows growth at the top end of the estimate, just would have liked the range to be a small window keeping the top end end but the low end starting at a higher number than 900m, as messaging next year could be lower than this year isn't great. But the rest of the messaging seems good if not gang busting.
Which is why you'll be a long term investor. As the high dividend yield as been a path to capital destruction in this share. You should care about the businesses free cash flow and return on capital as that is what is destroying investment capital, not the dividend yield, because it it was all about the yield, the SP wouldn't be languishing where it is.
I dont care on the dividend cost per share I meant,
I'm purely in this for SP growth, if I get my exit during or after the buybacks it matters little to me as I will exit sooner if the buybacks force the SP up. Which having been in barclays and all there years of buybacks it's not the saving grace it's sometimes made out to be.
But yes the SP staying low gives vodafone the chance to cancel more shares, dont think I've ever said otherwise, but Vodafone know to a high degree of confidence when the sales will go through, they also know to a high degree of confidence how quickly they will buy them back and yes the big guess for them is the price they buy them back at, but in there messaging of the total dividend cash payout they aren't expecting a rapid recovery in there estimate otherwise the reduction wouldn't be 58%. I get you don't want to listen to me and that's your choice. But it's also Vodafone telling you (and institutional investors) what there best guess is. You can take that at face value or not that's your choice, but to make out what I'm saying is so stupid, when it's clearly close to what Vodafone have worked out, is a bit of a richard move in my books. Then to keep changing the goalposts of your point to continue to make someone else out as stupid is classic narcissist behavior, but I'm done talking to you. You are clearly incapable of engaging in a conversation without the need to be pedantic. I just don't have the time or patience for it.
No they don't know it exactly but they have made their best estimate and that's more reliable that you gobbing off on here trying to make other people look stupid, when I got it nearly right to there estimates independently but you keep doing you!
I really don't care much for cost per share, I want SP recovery and DCF and spread on cost of capital is more likely to aid the SP recovery and vodafone are telling me this will be 1.1b in 2025, down from 2.5b when it was 9 cents, sp a drop of 58%.
If your in it for dividend yield then fair play just move on from this conversation
i got the ex div rate wrong, i said that a couple of times.
but i didnt get the buyback amount wrong, and heavens forbid i got the timing slightly wrong, buy not that wrong as i *** packeted 60% (but did caveat it) and vodafone is telling us its 58%.
whereas your just wrong on so many levels it's painful and the fact you are twisting it now jist shows what type of narcissistic person you are!
So you don't believe the RNS telling you it will be likely to be a 1.1b payout in 2025? Or the actual results they posted saying it is 2.5b currently? He'll why are you invested here if you don't believe either what they tell you or what the accounts state.
My initial guess was 60% but Vodafone are telling us it will likely be 58% less, but your hung up on a mistake I admitted I made.
As when the business talks about return on capital, 100% its the 1.1b cash out flow that is built into that, not a individual person's dividend per share, so big investors care about multiple things, yes passive income is one, but DCF is another as is the business ability to make a good spread on the cost of capital
Retail investors might only be interested in the dividend per share, but institutional investors care about cash flows of the business and use discount models to value the company at, as seeing as that influences the SP a lot more than retail investors then yes I'll care what they care about, not what you care about
FFS
Read what I said and read what the RNS said and the annual report says,
Cash payout on dividends will go down to 1.1b euros from 2.5b euros, a 58% reduction.
That's not me reading between the lines, that's the people who are closest to this telling us what will happen.
Your trying to make out as if I'm being stupid by saying its a unknown blah blah blah, but it's not unknown, vodafone have messaged there best estimate of what will happen and yet you ignore it and claim its a total guess. But its not, they will know the phasing at put prudent estimates on the sp price they will buy them at. And i would say they are best placed to estimate that, not some charlatan on a Bulletin board who can't or won't read what's in front of him.
They are telling us in those increased returns that the cash impact of the new rebased dividend is 1.1b vs 2.5b previously, which is a near 58% reduction.
Omg your insufferable. Read what I say, read what vodafone have said. What am I saying that contradicts what they are saying? The fact I said nearly 60%, well there numbers indicate 58% so I wasn't far off with quick maths
At what point did I ever say investors would be interested.
I was merely pointing out that although the dividend payout is being slashed on a per share by 50% the net effect to the cash payout would be closer to 60% because of the buybacks.
Which using numbers provided by Vodafone in either there recent RNS or prior results prove that they are planning it to be a near 58% reduction in cash payout. But now your Turning your argument into something else now that the Vodafone provided numbers effectively show the same thing I was merely trying to point out.
Eg they are effectively reducing the dividend by nearly 60% in there actions on the dividend and buybacks
Targeting total return increase to ?3.1 billion for FY25, comprising ?1.1 billion ordinary dividends and up to ?2.0 billion share buybacks following completion of the sale of Vodafone Spain; and
· opportunity for further share buybacks of up to ?2.0 billion following completion of the sale of Vodafone Italy.