Member Info for Beo1

Take with a pinch of salt, but hearing a large PE is exploring buying an Airline, been helping them with a cross portfolio opportunity and was mentioned in passing, no names were mentioned, but don't see many airlines with strong fundamentals where a PE could see value!

Employee SAYE for 2022 Options, will be created very soon, it was 100% Subscribed at 99p, so there will be some dilution to the overall SP once that goes through, then I would suspect a bunch will look to sell so causing a bit of a headwind,

We are guessing with limited information I guess. I understand the risk beta goes up for kE, but then the gearing would go up (reducing the Equity %), but how that trade off would work is anyones guess. You can't 100% say the kE goes up more than the benefit of the % of Debt being at a lower rate. I just see so many times people rushing in, saying paying off debt than I auto response sometimes, as not all debt is bad, debt is generally cheaper than equity and tax efficient so is good for WACC, but yes over leveraging will impact the beta which I hadn't thought about

WACC at over 8% is creeping on the high side but the after tax cost of debt will be the thing keeping it at 8%, paying down debt is only going to increase the WACC in a time when RoIC is at its lowest (albeit still good). Personally at this SP buybacks is a better use of capital, get the equity side down for cheap.

The disappointing thing for me, was they delayed this trading update by a couple of weeks, implying so they could message about the Accounting issue too (which in turn they said the re-domicle would wait till after the accounting issue) and all we got was 1 through away comment on the accounting saying they are now following the reports recommendations? but what did the report find, was it limited to one issue etc

To be fair, the 2nd warning in October should have done that. He had the chance then to kitchen sink it

Can never tell the reaction. If a company had always made these profits and had potential to grow LfL at 3% (like Dec & Jan) and was at this Mkt Cap, it would be seen as very undervalued. So really the price is very much on sentiment at the moment, and perhaps the market can see we are at the bottom now?

With all due respect Fender, Your risk/reward thresholds seems highly skewed. I get a profit is a profit, but to aim for £340 on £25k is very little reward for the level of capital risk you are putting in. All it takes is 1 bad trade that ties you in for too long, or you realise a loss.

Would you pay the price of a car based on the last 12 months maintenance and reduction in capital value, or would you pay for it based on the next 12 months that you'll actually own it? you want a lower SP to buy and then sell at todays value or higher? so you think its worth that then, just bitter because you aren't in at this point. you dont see future increases at todays SP and thats fine, but for you to want to buy at a lower value, your only doing that to make money, ergo you think the price at a lower value would be profitable.

At the end of the day you buy something for the future value it offers you, not the historical value it provided the previous owner. The prior history is there just a guide for future value, but if there is big exceptional items that distort that guide then you adjust off of the numbers. To think the Mkt Cap should exactly mirror the H1 results is very naïve.

Agreed, they had to much stock heading into the sale due to cyber incident, meaning more had to be discounted to clear.

Put it this way, the store the mrs works at, been bigging up the performance, plus they ran out of turkeys a day or 2 early, of which some of them were selling for over £80 a pop. So yes as pokerchips pointed out, Food will be the main increase, but the store also said they saw good growth in other areas too.

In the Mrs store, they took 4.5m over 10 days, best Christmas performance apparently, the 4.5m is more than they took in any month this year. Sold out of turkeys on Monday, some of them going for £80 a pop, crazy!

Please?

Rubbish retail numbers, rubbish nike numbers, and a good run into today, take your pick

Agreed, all the nike numbers seems good/flat for JD. Converse and China are little to nothing for us. Wholesale up from them means bigger share of wallet for JD. Also the margins being squeezed at Nike is potentially good too, it means they are soaking a large amount of the tariff burden and not trying to pass it on to consumers (either B2B or B2C) [Yet!]

Savage Logic = Interest rate cut will be bad news for EZJ as those super savvy customers will expect there ticket prices to drop by more. Totally wont help demand with cheaper holidays, no not at all, only bad news this.

Even in savage doomsday scenario and the customers demand to see that in their ticket prices, its a net zero margin impact at worst, but the ticket prices would be cheaper, making them more desirable surely? savage really is clutching at straws to imply any part of the cost base reducing would be a headwind for EZJ 🤡

Cry some more!

I also have there virtual debit card and do most of my discretionary spending via the card, which gives cashback which I have setup to autoinvest in my ftse100 tracker, not loads of money but nice little extra