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Because Q4 is extremely cyclical, Last year Q4 vs Q3 jumped up over 40% in revenue. alot of costs will be based on a % of revenue but some of the costs wont be (EG Head Office support costs),
Last Year and H1 it Was £301k PBT at H2 is £372k. Im basically saying we will hit £240k in H2 this year (compared to £118k in H1, but off the back of leveraging overhead on the back of high revenue in H2)
Mmm, dodgy maths!
You wont get to a +% on total if you hit those numbers. Media & Studios is roughly 50/50 so (7)% + 3% would be a negative 2% at a total level.
Also I rounded my PBT down, it will be between £340m-£370m is my estimate
Am i missing something? I get Q3 (qtr not YTD) advertising flat at £495m for the qtr vs last year. Whereas Q1 and Q2 were down 9-10%. My big issue is if we caught the same cyclical Q4 tailwinds as last year, as last year revenue was up circa 40% in Q4 vs Q3.
2022 2023
QTR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Media £545 £520 £496 £688 £495 £469 £495
Studios £458 £469 £460 £709 £457 £543 £516
Total £1,003 £989 £956 £1,397 £952 £1,012 £1,011
Internal -£169 -£144 -£112 -£192 -£176 -£149 -£118
External £834 £845 £844 £1,205 £776 £863 £893
Seq %
Media -5% -5% 39% -28% -5% 6%
Studios 2% -2% 54% -36% 19% -5%
External 1% 0% 43% -36% 11% 3%
YoY %
Media -9% -10% 0%
Studios 0% 16% 12%
External -7% 2% 6%
3bn of that is dividends, so can't really count that when comparing to market cap IMO as thats just FCF out of the business for really no benefit to the business. whereas the 7bn reduces the shares in circulation so at least "buys" them something for the cash outflow. then you have to deduct share option bonus's then the true accretive value to the SP is lower again.
Yep sold out today at 1.58, after buying in at 1.34. Think the 5% increase today is a bit weird, came in at analyst consensus for EPS / ROTE%, lower on Dividend per share, higher on buybacks but I'd say broadly in line. I guess the forward looking statements have been received well. In particular more cash going back to shareholders over 3 years and the ROTE% targets. The strategic stuff seems very slow winded. They are trying to reduce the impact of the investment bank poor ROTE% by growing other parts of the business, which carries more risk IMO, than a divestment of the investment bank. I personally prefer the way they are doing it but I would have thought the market wouldn't
And apparently it trades in that range 7 times a day.
But using CFD's you could trade 50% profit. so you stake £1000 on the SP movements, over the day you trade say 20 times, could easily make £500 using CFD's, yes the potential to lose it all is very high, but theoretically you could stake £1000 of your bank roll daily and hope to make £500 day trading using CFD's. because your not buying a share at 64p your "buying" the movement of 1 or 2p
There is zero chance she'll be allowed to buy right now. She will be signed up to non purchase/sale agreements as a result of the potential disposals / mergers. all of which she is privy to information that the market isn't so will be restricted by more than the usual restrictions in place
I guess from Vodafone perspective it makes sense. assuming the gearing % gets better or at least the same, eg some of the funds are used to paydown some of the debt in proportion.
As A. it makes the dividend more affordable in comparison to Earnings cover
B. if they don't then the cost of capital would increase, as debt is cheaper than equity and without buying back some of that equity it would become a bigger % of the WACC number and as such make it harder to generate returns in excess of the cost of capital
You know why its down US pre market? Because we are down here, the US market is reflecting what has happened post their close to the current US position.
Basically between our close yesterday the US market took the share price up slightly (although it was down at the end, its the difference between US close and the US price at our close, so roughly about 0.4%, Then we are down on our yesterday close by 0.4%, hence the 0.8% now showing in the US
Yes not very happy with the touted Buybacks. I get the debt pile has different term outs, but surely better going towards paying some of that off, rather than essentially being a smaller business from the Asset side but the liabilities not changing.
It is reducing, YoY it has, the Half year report is distorted by cyclical payment terms on the current liabilities so sequental % isn't a fair reflection. Full year report will show a reduction in net debt YoY (as the previous year did)
I did note that Yield is up vs volume down, so yes we are losing market share, so the people gaining this market share will have higher volume and higher yield, which looks like DT are benefiting from. I do wonder how they were impacted by the Bundle legislation change, EG are they getting some of the customers we are losing as a result of not being able to bundle them like we used to. Considering DT broadband is seeing very good growth in Germany i reckon that could be some of it. But we lost a lot of SP due to the declines we saw last year. Yes market share is still declining but we are making a higher ARPU which hopefully improves EBITDA. A lot of the increase is inflation, but with the handset "financing" cost to VOD effectively being fixed for the duration the revenue per user should be > cost per user, so smaller market share but more profit?