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@ADDmeIN probably the wrong policy. If they announce a share buyback that will bring in speculators, it will hike the price up and thats fine but thats not the HBR model.
You will notice that PMO creditors didnt get full value on their debt for share swap, they got 75p on the pound.
Thats a saving of 25% for everyone else who owns the share.
HBR will play the long game. Distressed assets, producing companies that they can settle their debt for cheap.
The team is not stupid but time is a factor for me.
The higher oil prices go, the harder it is for M&A.
The only thing that will quicken this is a credit contraction.
Share price will take a haircut but HBR can pick up assets on sale
I think this thing will drop back to 18p or even 17p.
@Plebleens I think you're right about the overhang but I do think a dividend would go a long way.
Investors are looking at consolidation and really superfluous things.
The fact of the matter is, its a good company.
Production output is comparable to something like Aker BP that has about 220k barrels per day with a market cap of $9bn and a dividend. HBR has about 25% more debt which its paying down at a nice rate. Aker BP does not have exposure to other reserves like Falklands, Indonesia & vietnam.
Just with the market cap HBR has 300% upside but again the overhang & no dividend.
The hedging is trash but this is linked with its line of credit as it uses a guaranteed price to secure it.
If I was a betting man, I think HBR are considering developing Falklands, thats when you'll see some real production output.
It has quite a few carbon capture initiatives at production points that will give it an ESG rating and bring in ESG funds.
I've always said this, the dividend is a means of putting HBR on the map and long term I have high hopes for the company.
without the dividend and until the hangover clears, this thing may trend sideways.
if any one is interested in today's talking points, here is a rundown of what was voted on:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HARBOUR-ENERGY-PLC-120993565/news/Harbour-Energy-nbsp-Result-of-the-AGM-35682994/
I understand what you're saying jw61.... I really do but the facts are still the facts and we see this in the share price.
The share price has trended sideways for the last 2 months, even though oil has gone through the roof.
The debt is ok for the size of this company. Share consolidation is ok though it raises a flag for me.
The 2 things that will put this stock on the map; dividends and an M&A.
the M&A probably wont happen with most oil companies making money hand over fist.
I taper my position down till there is a dividend announcement, but I already bought when this stock dropped to 17p but Im no mug, why would a firm put its money in HBR when all other oil companies have been making it rain, no overhang and a dividend to compensate you for the risk you take.
For me this is an issue of timeline.
You have to keep investors invested.
If you dont then the price will drop. Instead of premier investors getting 30p they will get 20p after a huge price drop.
The dividend is really to keep investors sweet.
Also investments are relative. Would I invest in HBR at 10p, heck yea, at 20.... maybe. at 25p with a huge overhang, probably not, at 25p with a dividend, I could be swayed.
Ask yourself why institutions havent invested, I say that without a near dividend pretty soon, theres a huge down draft after the lockup period comes. So why buy at 20p when you can buy at 15p.
Are you ok Soder?
You seem upset.
I think do want the company to commit to a dividend. We have been talking dividend for a while now.
The point of the dividend and the wait is important for me, and I'll explain sweet cheeks.
The Divi should be done at the latest, by end July.
when the lockup is done, new shares come online, by virtue of more shares being available the price can be depressed and vol increased.
We have already seen this with shares coming online.
The dividend brings in investors to mitigate price loss and reduce vol.
Well you have a point... kinda.
We only had about 23% of shares tradable by investors.
Now we will have about another third tradable in 3 months and then the floodgates would be open for the rest in 9 months.
My point is, theres a lot of shares coming online and we saw shares dumped on the market and lowering the sp to 17p