RE: Let's get real over the potential SP18 Jan 2022 11:10
I wouldn't come here with an absolute price prediction because I wouldn't be 100% certain - nobody can be which is why I rail against anybody else doing it.
I will go this far: I own 500,000 here and I WILL be de-risking when this goes past 10p, which I am certain it will at some point this year. This is because I don't agree with your numbers:
For example - your estimates on streaming are (in my opinion only) far too high. Yes, I can see the concert getting a £2-£3M streaming revenue, but you must remember the vast majority of that will be in Korea - LVCG have the worldwide streaming rights OUTSIDE Korea...
Somebody posted a link to a $10M stream from Feb 21 as an example of what could be, but they forgot that was a closed concert so the stream was the only outlet - this concert has a live audience. Also the stream alluded to was mostly in Korea.
Your numbers also factor in zero risk for another COVID issue, or a band cancelling, or a host of other issues that could go the other way.