Member Info for benbenbenben

PL75 - cool, I'll keep you posted on how my spread bets are going!

As per my post at 10.25 today, I aimed for 235 as that's where I thought we'd go to and landed at 237, which isn't so bad. I closed out most of my positions yesterday at 255 to take some profits, but I still have a few smaller positions in the market higher up as I was too scared of news dropping to be out completely. I added some more today as Al loves a Thursday RNS...

I hope we have a nice big rise tomorrow AM so I can get more in without those positions burning up more capital on margin, but if not, will be looking for 220-ish as support and will pile in at the bottom.

I will be sure to update you regularly as we go, safe in the knowledge that even if I **** it up, I still have my core share holding at £1.50

:)

Wyndrum - Thanks, it looks really good so i'll be interested to read it!

Steadyman - I am also a happy happy holder and I agree, there is so much potential in this company; it's why I've thrown pretty much everything I have at it. I don't want to discuss how low it can go (the answer is zero), I am just keen to hear how others interpret the various movements, signals, etc so I can improve my own understanding.

PL75 - I am glad to hear you are a ray of sunshine. As above, I am more interested in trying to understand how to interpret charts than spread fear: I imagine that will be clear to anyone who reads down the thread. The long term trend is, after-all, up...

:)

PL75 - Thank you for your kind words, but I fear you might be smoking the wrong stuff, as you seem a little paranoid...

Far from trying to 'spread doom' to 'scare weak holders', I am just interested to discuss the share price movements, on this: **a share discussion board**.

Far from some grand conspiracy, I have observed the following:

1) share prices go down as well as up
2) the share price has closed down for the last 3 days
3) the chart looks almost exactly the same this week as last week

Given all this, I am trying to understand where the bottom of the current drop is likely to be because I don't want to over-leverage myself. I don't care if others sell, I just want to understand where to buy.

But as mentioned, I have a problem: I am **** at charting. Hence, I started a thread called "charts" to discuss the share price action, on this, a share discussion board.

I was hoping to learn something from others with more experience, and to turn your problem on it's head; instead of panic selling due to my clearly novice posting, perhaps inexperienced holders would benefit from understanding where a bottom is forming in the price - they might even buy that dip...

My average holding price (shares) is £1.50: I haven't sold a share in 12 months and have held that position at £2.80 and £0.90; so I feel I have earned my stripes to discuss the fact prices go both up and down.

Treating anyone who points that out as a heretic is denying reality, and we are all ultimately here to make money, not join a cult - no matter how much we believe in the company.

And in any case, I simply suggested we might retest £2, like we did *last week* - which is hardly "doom" is it? In fact, given your total aversion to discussing any potential drawback in this share objectively, I am starting to wonder:

Is it not you who is the weak holder?

Cheer up FFS

!

That's right CO - and whats more, if you follow my advice, I guarantee you will either make or lose money!

Stodgy, I'm still holding all the shares I bought this time last year and will be for the foreseeable; I'm just trying to get spread bets in ahead of news hence my interest in the charts. Despite all the flapping on the board today, I'm very confident in the company and the Captain, so am looking for the biggest holding I can manage before the news...

Don't worry Stodgy I might be completely wrong!

I just think we're going up and down a range until news comes and people are trading it until then..

PS - grabbed a copy of that book you recommended; out of print so taking an age to arrive from Amazon but like the LFT, I hope its coming soon!

Hey Wyndrum,

Good points above.

Yes - she had a good go at breaking through 233 but it held up well, although we didn't really bounce...

That said, it would have to have been quite the drop to get any lower today; the candle on March 25th is the same size as our move today - which is partly how I arrived at 233.

So if we don't have news tomorrow, I could see us having a crack at 220ish - maybe 215 - before bouncing; I'd be surprised if we got as low as £2 again though, as I think the majority of people expect news is very close. Plus the volume sold the last few days looks thin compared to the volume bought; so presumably not everyone is selling up..

Equally maybe we'll bounce, or better, get the (positive) RNS - I suppose we will find out in 14 hours!

SeethreeIPO - I think you're right to say technical analysis works best on thickly traded markets, but I still think there's merit in it on AIM, even if it is a sentiment driven market; I've just come to realise that for indicators to be reliable you need to use longer time periods to make up for low volumes.

I think Wyndrum is right to highlight the psychology of the prices - which is closely tied to sentiment - as the charts show where people are prepared to buy and sell and you can infer where the price is likely to move reasonably accurately from that; when we hit 280 and fell back (again) I anticipated we'd move in to a downtrend, for example. If nothing else, the fact others are looking to charts makes them a somewhat self-fulfilling prophecy.

I guess I'm just keen to learn, because having achieved spectacularly bad entries into stocks before making and losing huge amounts of paper money, I am not convinced the kamikaze-buy-and-HODL approach counts as effective capital management!

Wyndrum - My thinking was more of a retrace as the intra-day chart appears to show us as range bound; which was the case for most of the last 10 months between £1-£2.

I'd expect 200 would hold as solid support unless news is dragged out; but I think it's unlikely the board and the NOMAD would uncritically allow the CEO to voluntarily hold a investor briefing and issue results without an update on the LFT, as it would be a complete own goal for the share price.

So I think we likely will hear something before the IP and as SeethreeIPO says, sentiment counts for a lot on AIM - everyone know Al misses his deadlines, but I think come Friday buyers will want in for next week. Of course, if we have no news by the time of the IP, it will be carnage..

Though I suppose, a lot of my thinking has little to do with the chart alone, which I guess is counter to the point of 'pure' charting.

SeethreeIPO/JDT - that did make me smile ;)

I know they divide opinions on here, but in the absence of news it's all we really have to go on and personally, I find the conversation educational... does anyone have a view?

It looks to me like we are trying to close the gap at 233 - I suspect that's why so many negative posters have appeared this AM - but perhaps we'll reverse off the support around 240.

If no news tomorrow I can see us dropping back towards 220-ish before bouncing into FOMO Friday; though obviously if there is news the chart goes out the window.

I'm **** at charting though, so keen to hear any other ideas people have!

Presumably, if they are announcing results on April 22nd, that gives us a horizon for news on the LFT?

I would have thought it strange to announce results and not say anything about it, and given what we know about the website preparing for product launch, could infer from this news is close?

Or do results have to be announced on or by a certain date for regulatory compliance, meaning the date is not of Avacta’s choosing?

Some pretty big buys coming through on the tape atm

I managed a partial fill at 260 and again at 263 on IG - I think you are right there Wyndrum as I have been watching for a dip all morning and piled in to that; judging from the comments here (and the bounce) i'm not alone...

Wow it's gone off a cliff - am sorry for anyone holding

That 2 million shares were bought in the last 4 hours suggests a few people think so ;)

IG showing nearly 400k bought in the last 15 minutes, which at near ATH seems notable...

^I think it's in the annual report

@13thMonekey - I have a (hazy) recollection that Avacta have a Point of Care Sepsis test under development

Wyndrum - you might find this helpful; it's a data base of Covid diagnostics which you can screen for sample type, regulatory approval, territory etc and compare their performance.

https://chs.asu.edu/diagnostics-commons/testing-commons

Seems to be picking up some momentum into the close - looks like a decent bounce coming off the support at 230..