Member Info for benbenbenben

Aha yes I can see 275 on closer inspection - though if it goes I imagine we'll blow through it, so those penny's shouldn't make to much of a difference.

I arrived at 350 as a rough projection from the center of the ascending triangle, with 370-ish from the edge - though I guess it's contingent on what Al says. If he gives details of big contracts in the offing perhaps it could go beyond that this week, though it might feel a little stretched without the CE mark in yet? I'd be curious to hear your thoughts!

Sorry to pour cold water on this, but they haven't updated the expiry date - just the description of the test; the license always expired then.

Still, it leaves open the question of what they intend to replace it with - so they'd better hurry up and be nice to Al before he flogs all those tests to Europe for loadsamoneyTM!

https://web.archive.org/web/20210108101157/https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/medical-devices-given-exceptional-use-authorisations-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/list-of-medical-devices-given-exceptional-use-authorisations#manufacturer-department-of-health-and-social-care-dhsc

Does anyone know what the date was before?

Bottmzup - we are looking at multi-£bn revenues in the next 12 months; while the *potential* of those revenues is more or less priced in, the revenues themselves are not. As soon as we get sight on contracts in the next few weeks this will re-rate spectacularly

If we can break and hold above 278 I think we might see fireworks - perhaps Al will turn on the thrusters at 11...

NT to buy 500 on IG

Interesting that they have promoted a senior scientist to be "Business Development Executive" for diagnostics in Europe, the Middle East and Africa - I'm pretty sure that's new..

For as long as COVID is out of control in the Global South, countries like the UK will be at risk from both imported cases and new mutations - we are already seeing this with the Indian variant for example.

While I expect we'll have a quieter summer, come winter I think there will be a real risk of a third wave and fear of this will keep demand for testing high. Expenditure wise, the costs of testing are comparatively low compared to further national lock-downs, which in any case are probably politically unfeasible as the primary control measure.

I think there is a natural tendency to downplay how long the pandemic will last - the Spanish flu had four waves over two years for example - as COVID will become endemic and we are multiple years away from the bulk of the global population being vaccinated.

So while I think 'population screening' levels of testing will be short lived, there will be a high demand for tests for at least the next year even in countries with high vaccination levels. Beyond that, imagine use cases for things like border control will persist for longer and that organisations like the WHO will support purchasing for low income countries.

*any FT article

Larsh - copy and paste the headline into Google and click the first link; it will load the cached version and get around the paywall. If it doesn’t work, use private browsing. You can read any article that way! :)

...have run out of ideas, apparently. Also looking to rebuild an oncology programme. Perhaps of some interest to us...

https://www.ft.com/content/f135e584-bda2-47ad-a414-38346abaec04

HP - perhaps trite, but I intend to stick one in asking for an explanation for why timescales have been so inaccurate and what lessons the company intend to take forwards from that.

This is Avacta’s first real ‘dance’ and so I am sympathetic to them being super careful and also making a few time wasting missteps along the way due to inexperience. But I would like to known what the trajectory has been and what they’re taking away from it.

In the main, because after 12 months of speculation I’d just like to know what he reality. But also, I like and trust Al, so I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the guidance he gives to be accurate - if it’s been out of his control then I’d just like to know that, at least.

Well, that wasn't quite the FOMO Friday I expected... !

262

@HP240 - if you check Boris Johnson's register of meetings/interests, you can see that Captain Al met with him in summer last year, alongside the heads of the companies all now involved in the UK-RATC

I found it interesting that the people quoted are more 'managers' than 'decision makers' - I get the impression they are not quite in the loop.

I also found it interesting that there is no comment from the DHSC or Matt Han****, which makes me wonder if the story will prompt a statement and/or announcement of some sort about the sovereign test in the near future.

Incidentally, I noticed ODX had a good run today and picked up into the close around the same time as us - conjecture, but I wonder...

Was anyone in it and know the closing price?

Thanks!

Bump

My thoughts exactly Steadyman - see you on the other side!

Captain Al said he wanted to be a tier one biotechnology company like Thermo Fisher.

I like the captain and think he's serious about that proposition; I also think the scalable, platform nature of the Affimer/Pre-Cision technology is good enough he could do it.

Thermo-Fisher have a market capitalisation of $187.88 Billion

If Avacta were to equivocate that it would mean +/- £613 a share.

So I don't really have a target, I just plan to let it all play out over the next 1, 5, 10, 20 years and see how its going at each point - if I stop believing, I'll sell.

Otherwise, I really do think that if the LFT can turbo charge the business with almost unlimited cash, everything in the $750 Billion antibody market really is to play for..

Hold for Gold!