Member Info for Beachbum1978

What does your guy in the city reckon Couchman?

Check the ‘Cup and Handle’ formation also from the 23rd Sept to present, on the 3 month chart.

This is a very detailed analysis, link below -

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4459921-card-factory-distressed-and-undervalued

This is clearly a deep value play with the following two most probable outcomes (based on model assumptions):

Heads - (part/full dilution at £0.30) - generating a smaller but above market return.

Tails - (no dilution) - more than 100% return with potential for 3x.

There’s only one top shelf I like.

Playboy or Readers Wives?! Same question. There is a market for everything. What I like about CF is the ever growing range of ‘hard goods’. The Mugs, the key rings, socks, slippers…etc etc. There are now 141 items like this on their website.

Its the ‘value hard goods’ you can put alongside a card. It’s not just about cards anymore. The product range is increasing.

GLA.

Again!! :-)

Going to buy some more. IMO. No way another lockdown or shop closures is going to happen. No one will put up with it anyway, and the speed and organisation of the vaccine/booster programme puts us well ahead of the virus. Despite the bu**sit headlines of these variants. Not washing with me.
Stores are very very busy as per our ‘feet on the ground research’
Debt managed and coming down
As previously said and I’ve mentioned before, big backlog in all forms of celebration all linking to CF products.
If SHOE results are anything to go by.?
GLA, DYOR, IMO.

Rox - your turning into a s*x pest haha.

As you know I’m stalking you! Bought your new girlfriend at 48p and sold yesterday at 57, needed some cash, but thinking about re-entering her.

Still got my eye on your Ex too for a re-entry. Interesting times!

I’ve timed the too well, but that’s pure luck in this game!

Good luck everyone.

Having held for a year and doing well, I sold out 3 weeks ago thankfully. Something didn’t feel right! Gut. Zero communication on anything. And constantly sinking.

I really like Saga as a brand and I’m hugely positive it will come good long term, but for me, something is going on here short term. DYOR.

Be good to see you in BB

Thanks for this tip ages ago Rox. Been on watchlist for 6 months.
Turned out to be a good switch, a few weeks ago, got lucky on the timing like. Cheers.

DYOR. GLA

Tripp knows :-)

It’s not a new short. It’s reducing or closing its short position, which is a positive indication

I sold my Saga to come in here because I became extremely frustrated with them giving no update or indication of sales or any sort of communication other than every quarter.

I said it before, there is absolutely no harm in a little update now and again to say ‘everything going well guys’ ‘things looking rosey so far etc etc’

Yes be cautious, but if you have something positive to say, say it. Simple communication and it’s nice, as well as reassuring.

Minor point, but I work in Hotels, and for the last 4 months especially, and for at least the next year ahead, they are on Covid cancellations catch up with weddings especially, but now Xmas parties, birthday celebrations etc etc.
They are absolutely rammed to the brim with bookings, running 2 weddings a day, at weekends, and also lots more mid week weddings you wouldn’t normally get.

Only reason I mention it is the shear amount of cards and dressings I’ve seen, means they have doubled.

Let’s hope most are shopping at CF.

Just been in my local CF. Guy said they’d been very busy and just taken on 2 temporary seasonal staff. 6 staff including manager. 1000sq ft.

Said they were now comparing themselves to 2019 and doing very well.

Also my dad is a FD for a firm/factory that makes greetings cards and envelopes. He also says 100% on cards as wastage will be high. And happy to take 55% on hard goods. DYOR.

My mate owns a very large online Toy business. Comes from retail originally and he says for hard goods of a similar nature, mugs, teddies, key rings etc etc, between 50-65% margin. Therefore I reckon across the board with mix of cards and hard goods, 75-80%??

All just IMO, DYOR.

Great posts too Rox. Ideal having an inside source.

I’ve read most greetings cards are sold at 100% profit. With other goods probably at a lot less….I would take a stab at 70% margin average across the board.?? Got a mate in the industry so will ask

Rox - Lets take Bishop Auckland as an example.

Average British town. Low income area. Population 24,000.

Rental 14k a year
Let’s take 5 full time staff as example at 9.21 an hour on average as advertised.
Take some other fixed costs Electric, insurances etc etc. No business rates under 15k a year.

And your break even is around £15,000 a month.

Go in and find out what there target is??!! Hahaha

Rox - Bishop Auckland, fairly near you, rental is £14k a year, 999 square foot to give you some indication