Member Info for BasilAlderman

We have been guided that Itumbula is a massive helium discovery with a 10%+ helium seepage and a 4.7% free flow rate but TAI could be an even bigger find with further deeper drilling. The competent person's report stated that there might be as much as 2.8billion cubic feet of helium at Tai alone, an amount that equates to around half of the current global demand. That's why investors are rightly excited about HE1. It's obviously very big news about Itumbula but the bigger picture re Tai and our other licences in the Tanzania region should not be under estimated.

Yes, in summary:

1. Helium One has ‘transformational resource potential’ with Itumbala campaign.

2. Helium One’s current share price “does not fully reflect the commercial potential of Itumbula in particular”, with analysts highlighting high concentrations (4.7%) of helium as a potential "world-class" discovery.

3. Liberum's report emphasised the global helium supply and demand dynamic, noting the critical nature of the balance and its implications for Helium One.

4. Based on the 350,000 Mcf/year capacity & Helium prices of $300mcf each module could generate $105M in annual revenue.

5. $94 Million of annual EBITDA and an 89% EBITDA margin.

6. With the Rukwa Basin's risk significantly de-risked through these efforts, the company's stock is undervalued, especially considering the high helium concentration which surpasses global averages for helium prospects.

7. $55 Million free cash flow per year to be generated

8. Anticipation of further drilling at Tai-3 and an Extended Well Test (EWT) at Itumbula, which could reveal commercial volumes of helium and solidify a route to market for Helium One.

9. Helium One is a buy with a 5.3p price target.

It is worth pointing out the $55 Million free cash flow could significantly increase per well as would the $94 Million of annual EBITDA. If further deep drilling at Tai-3 reveals similar levels to Itumbula what do you think this will do to the current hare price? Answer: It will send the share price in to orbit akin to GGP / RKH / ARB / NCYT etc.

Yes, it's also very concerning that for the last few years the interim results have been followed on the day or a few days later with an Investor Meet presentation, normally flagged up in the notice announcing the forthcoming results date. e.g. here is last year's invitation: "The Company will hold a virtual presentation for all existing and potential investors via the Investor Meet Company platform". No sign of an invitation yet for this week?

As a footnote and as a very long term holder even I have now slipped in to a loss making position with this share. A stunning reversal of fortunes having been up over x 25. I'm pretty good at picking a share and selling at many multiples but for once I admit it looks as though I was wrong. The only two shares that have gone catastrophically wrong for me in recent years both have had a certain Stephen Parker as a director. 1. SAR and 2. MGC. Next time I will go with my gut and sell. The last 2 AGM's were the red flashing lights for me and I should have sold out. I'm still holding my 128,000 SAR shares for a miracle but the x 25 days look a pie in the sky dream now.

Because it's a reminder of the HUGE potential for HE1. The Mail on Sunday article on HE1 also contains facts rather than some of the more outlandish negatives that have appeared on here over the last few weeks! A reminder of what the article said about HE1's futre prospects, below:

- A competent person's report reckoned that there might be as much as 2.8billion cubic feet of helium (at Tai alone), an amount that equates to around half of the current global demand.

- Investor interest is likely to be huge and the potential for a re-rating very high.

- The global demand for helium is at an all-time high, and Helium One is the primary helium explorer in Tanzania.

- Almost all the other helium that gets produced is produced as a by-product of hydrocarbons.

- How long would it take to move it to production? The answer is: not too long. Tanzania has been a reasonably benign jurisdiction to operate in as far as Helium One is concerned, and the government is keen to secure a strategic position for the country as one of the major players in helium production.

- So, changing Helium One's exploration licence to a production licence is reckoned to be a relatively straightforward process.

- Production, says Blaisse, could come as soon as 18 months after a discovery.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-12357303/amp/SMALL-CAP-IDEA-Helium-One-likely-turning-point-buying-drill-rig.html

Remember the rises at Rockhopper and Greatland? The same could be happening with HE1 soon.

Yes, that Mail on Sunday article is well worth reading and a great reminder for HE1 shareholders and prospective shareholders of just how BIG our investment could be. Some of the key points from the article:

- A competent person's report reckoned that there might be as much as 2.8billion cubic feet of helium at Tai alone, an amount that equates to around half of the current global demand.

- Investor interest is likely to be huge and the potential for a re-rating very high.

- The global demand for helium is at an all-time high, and Helium One is the primary helium explorer in Tanzania.

- Almost all the other helium that gets produced is produced as a by-product of hydrocarbons.

- How long would it take to move it to production? The answer is: not too long. Tanzania has been a reasonably benign jurisdiction to operate in as far as Helium One is concerned, and the government is keen to secure a strategic position for the country as one of the major players in helium production.

- So, changing Helium One's exploration licence to a production licence is reckoned to be a relatively straightforward process.

- Production, says Blaisse, could come as soon as 18 months after a discovery.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-12357303/amp/SMALL-CAP-IDEA-Helium-One-likely-turning-point-buying-drill-rig.html

Remember the rises at Rockhopper and Greatland? The same could be happening with HE1 soon.

Well, HE1 Chairman James Smith said 2 weeks ago that HE1 will be "providing further updates in the near future". That could very well mean next week. Interesting to see if your tea leaves are right!

The RNS announcing Lord Chris Wellesley's arrival at GST stated he was joining as a Non Exec Director but would become CEO on FCA approval. The angrafx.com website today has him listed as CEO. FCA approval must have been granted. Normally, you would see an RNS about a new CEO though? Are they holding this back until next week with additional news? We are due quite a lot of news shortly.

Don’t forget that independent experts have calculated a probable resource of 54 Billion Cubic Feet (BCf) in just one part of the rift valley near Itumbula. That is enough to fill over 1.2 million medical MRI scanners and is clearly a game changer. Remember also that the helium seep at Itumbula measured up to 10.4%. That is very big news in our sector.

Yes, that's been my worry for the last 18 months after the last 2 AGM's, in particular, when it started to look as though something wasn't quite right. i.e. significant remuneration packages for a very very small business plus nice pension top ups each year (21 years so far) totally out of kilter with the reality of what was unfolding but shareholders were almost made to feel like an inconvenience. See the last AGM / body language / curt answers / no answers / evasive etc.

Yes, you make an interesting point about how the GDR share price increases in March most years. From the charts you can see that GDR has risen from:

9p to 173p between March 2020 and May 2020

41p to 146p Jan - March 2021

12p - 30p in March 2022

8p to 32p Jan to March 2023

Will we get the same this March? 4.45p March 2024 to xxx in March / April 2024?

If we get 'Specialised Commissioning' and FDA news as per James Cheek's comments in the Investor Meet presentation then we could do. Check out the Investor Meet presentation for his exact words but James Cheek was waxing lyrical about both of these opportunities hopefully coming to fruition. I view this as a bombed out share price so positive news could make a big impact.

Yes and the reason I've been flagging up 'Specialist Commissioning' is that if they pull it off the MT-RNR1 ID Kit becomes to all intents and purposes self funding. That would be pretty big news for GDR and its finances & of course the share price. James Cheek also said in the Investor Meet presentation that he felt FDA approval was getting closer. So, if we take him at his word both the Specialist Commissioning and FDA news could drop at any moment. How big would that be?! It would certainly catch a few people out, that's for sure.

Yes and don't forget that in August 2021 the company was valued at £170m compared to about £46.5m today. 3 years ago the valuation of £170 million was predicated on optimism. Since then that hope has become a reality with the discovery of huge levels of helium at Itumbula. We've had a "Mini-bag" here so far. Next to come is the "Mega Multi-Bag". e.g. a x 100 such as ARB, GGP, NCYT etc Watch this space!

Yes and the real experts are very excited about the helium in Tanzania:

‘We sampled helium gas (and nitrogen) just bubbling out of the ground in the Tanzanian East African Rift valley. By combining our understanding of helium geochemistry with seismic images of gas trapping structures, independent experts have calculated a probable resource of 54 Billion Cubic Feet (BCf) in just one part of the rift valley. This is enough to fill over 1.2 million medical MRI scanners. To put this discovery into perspective, global consumption of helium is about 8 BCf per year and the United States Federal Helium Reserve, which is the world’s largest supplier, has a current reserve of just 24.2 BCf. Total known reserves in the USA are around 153 BCf. This is a game changer for the future security of society’s helium needs and similar finds in the future may not be far away.’ - Dr. Chris Ballentine, chair of geochemistry and head of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Oxford.

Our CEO is equally enthused:

"We are delighted with the findings from Itumbula West-1 and the results from the down hole well testing have clearly confirmed the presence of a producing helium province in the Rukwa Rift Basin. Flowing helium to surface in such high concentrations is a huge milestone for the Company and we will now fully evaluate these results and focus on advancing this project in the most effective way possible; one that will aim to achieve commerciality at the earliest opportunity. This drilling campaign has been a huge success for both the Company and for Tanzania. We look forward to providing further updates as we fully evaluate the results and outline how we are planning the next steps to advance the project." - HE1 CEO, Lorna Blaisse.

Dr. Chris Ballentine and Lorna Blaisse say it as it is. i.e. This is a massive global find.

You 'crack' me up! Those investors that have completed their DD on HE1 will know the following but for those that are unaware here are a few facts:

Helium is priced at up to 50 times the price of LNG in liquid form.

It is essential to hi-tech products such as computer and smartphone components, MRI systems, medical treatments, superconducting magnets, fibre optic cables, microscopes, particle accelerators and space rocket launches – NASA is a major consumer.

Rising demand and constrained supply are fuelling growth prospects within the global marketplace, particularly for cleaner “green helium” sourced from noncarbon environments.

At present, more than 95% of the world’s helium is produced as a by-product of the processing of hydrocarbon-bearing gas.

HE1's CEO's options are priced at 6.25p.

The current annual global demand for helium is 6.6 Bcf in a US$7 billion market.

Helium prices continue to rise due to the current shortage and with a global average import price of US$457 per thousand cubic feet (2023 prices and higher now).

Air Products and Chemicals Inc (NYSE:APD)is one of the largest helium producing companies and has a current market cap of $64 billion.

Exxon Mobil is responsible for providing 20% share in global helium production.

The helium seep at Itumbula measured up to 10.4% with the measured concentration at Itumbula West of up to 4.7% helium, almost nine 9,000 times above background levels.

Helium players such as Exxon, APD, Linde etc will know all about HE1's success at Itumbula.

Hydrogen also flowed to surface during basement testing, at a concentration of 2.2% hydrogen, over thirty-seven thousand times above background levels.

A term sheet / MOU with a global player would see the HE1 share price sky rocket.

HE1 Chairman James Smith said 2 weeks ago that HE1 will be "providing further updates in the near future".

Lorna Blaisse, Chief Executive Officer stated last month:"The results that we have achieved from the Itumbula West-1 well, flowing helium to surface in such significant concentrations, has confirmed a globally unique helium producing province. By moving quickly and finalising this company led placing early on, we have been able to strengthen our working capital position, which will enable us to fully focus on the next phase of the Company's growth.

Food for thought and why this HE1 shareholder is holding out for big news during 2024.

Yes, it's always good to read and re-read an RNS as the helium seep - which measured up to 10.4% - was tucked away in the November Tai RNS. Everyone was so fixated on the Tai-1 and Tai-3 wells that they missed the Itumbula footnote relating to the 10.4% discovered there. It was the trigger point for me at the time to buy in. No wonder that HE1 branded it in the RNS as "prolific". It is therefore no surprise that the measured concentration at Itumbula West is up to 4.7% helium, almost nine 9,000 times above background levels. i.e. Itumbula West 1 could be even bigger than we think. 10.4% helium is massive in our sector.

The background is that Roadside Real Estate is aiming to create a portfolio worth £250 million over time. They have £100 Million of equity at their disposal following the Meadow Partners deal. A couple of month ago they were talking up an investment pipeline in excess of £150 million. A MCAP of £11 Million today could become a £100 Million MCAP company quite quickly. A big thanks to Cawdor and Brighty1 who flagged up ROAD a while back as a multi-bag in the making when it was called Barkby. The 300% rise from 3p to 12p in 2 hours this week could be replicated again. I’m looking at the share charts and this was in excess of 40p not so long ago.

Yes, big gains do happen. ROAD's share price went up by 300% yesterday. Could the same be about to happen here?

This is what James Cheek was talking about in his presentation in November:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/contact-us/privacy-notice/how-we-use-your-information/our-services/specialised-commissioning/

If GDR can pull "Specialist Commissioning" out of the bag for the MT-RNR1 ID Kit this could be a tipping point moment for the company and its share price. James Cheek stated that he had "been speaking to key people, such as Sue Hill and Alex McLoughlin", and he felt that there was "an acceptance sooner rather than later" that 'Specialist Commissioning' would occur.

I'm not saying it will happen just that James Cheek talked it up at the end of November as a possibility for the new year. Lets hope he can confirm Specialist Commissioning soon for the MT-RNR1 ID Kit. It would be a game changer.

A short update from HE1 to confirm that it is in discussions to sign a Term Sheet for an earn-in and joint venture agreement with a third party and this will soar. It could be hours, days or weeks away based on that comment about "further updates in the near future". Normally, a Term Sheet in this sector occurs prior to an MOU or JV. i.e. they could be sifting through who would be the best partner already. It's clear that they have been talking to prospective partners already having read the briefings and watched the videos. Watch this space as they say!

Don't forget that HE1's CEO was quoted in the recent RNS about "advancing this project in the most effective way. One that will aim to achieve commerciality at the earliest opportunity". i.e. code for we are not going to hang around and this is too big for us and we need an Exxon, Linde etc for a MOU. A gentle reminder that Rockhopper (RKH) went from 15p to 450p on good news & Greatland (GGP) went x 65 from .55p to over 35p. Big gains do happen and a Resource Confirmation will help clarify the mammoth quantities of Helium and Hydrogen discovered by HE1. That resource data could be coming soon based on the statement by James Smith (Chairman) in the recent RNS about "providing further updates in the near future." Watch this space.