Member Info for barchid

As I said, lighten up....

Lighten up a bit.....

Redbox
Perhaps because most shareholders would like them to make a profit ?

Redbox
As a holder I sincerely hope that it would NOT be accepted, MARS needs the cash !

Trent
Good luck for you & yours, another (local) lockdown will be as about as helpful as breaking wind in a lift to Marstons !

Hoolicat
Great input again, many thanks.
As you say a chunk of change but rather less than I was fearing, thankfully.
The real issue is, of course, if the tenants can pay the rent. That is a liability we have no solid numbers to evaluate but my suspicion has been, ever since the sale of a bunch of pubs late 2019 at a nasty loss to book value, that the estate is somewhat aggressively valued, especially as that followed the abortive sale of "pitcher & piano" bars due to no interest at the offered price.

Fairdealer
First the motel piece, certainly variable in quality, which one can understand up to a point in this climate but could mean a general staff/skills upgrade is needed to maximise occupation of rooms.
My only experience in one was in Devon, pretty dire, even on the loyalty card it still rankles....
WRT the trade receivables, you have confirmed, but in greater detail than I had knowledge of, the possible iceberg we might meet in some months time.
Hopefully not but it is best to have eyes wide open.
Thanks for your response, appreciated.

Fairdealer
Firstly did you have a better experience in the Motel this trip than you did last trip, presumably a different one ?
Secondly, you are good at these things regarding tenancies etc but if I am not mistaken between 2012 to 2018 the average of trade receivables considered overdue was around 25% ?
Presumably this is going to be a very different number this year, I know they have modified their banking agreements recently but who is going to pay, for instance, for all the old beer which was tipped away, tenants or Marstons ?
Is this something you have looked at recently ?
Clearly there is a lot of bad news built into the price already, could this come as another nasty surprise or am I misunderstanding something ?

@barnet
I read that too but in reality I find it hard to believe the govt could be that stupid to close pubs just after reopening them, despite what they did to weddings yesterday?
Nevertheless, believe it or not a lot of people will read this and think "why rush into these at present", so the damage has been done.

Boards
A superb read across of one of the worlds greatest living experts occupation.
A somewhat tardy reply on my part but as opposed to scarecrows I can choose my own business hours and today was too lovely on the Thames to worry about stocks & shares. I started the weekend a day early.
Have a good one yourself & doubtless we will still be hearing from Medical Tutor, Chartist (specialising in flat lines, etc etc,not to mention a pro Scarecrow and by the sounds of it a member of the RSC ?

@Hoolicat
A most insightful, eye opening post, whether you prove to be right or wrong on end result matters not, but you have added a depth of view which seems compelling to me, probably not to many others. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us.
I was never a bull of the sale of most of the brewery as the debt pile and a string of diverse & in some cases, disparate, pubs did not seem a terribly attractive prospect.
I had posted several times over the past couple of years that it was quite possible an overseas company could take out Mars, but post covid Carlsberg saw an opportunity to get what they really wanted and struck. Leaving us with something altogether different, and my worry is that the estate was rather fully valued even before covid.

Boards
He rises like mackerel to the bait, clearly not a crustacean....

Boards
Very tricky to tutor anyone who appears to be the world's greatest living expert on so many subjects, according to one post it was a long time ago that he was teaching medicine, hard to tutor a teacher.
And he does appear to have an aversion to lobsters too maybe be something to do with the flatlining ?

Pitterpatter
I am probably being very thick here, (please excuse me), but how do you think we are overlooking the fact that thes nav of these shares will rise tenfold because of the equalisation firures you quote ?
I have looked at the accounts, and am no expert on them, but the numbers I see are very much what Fairdealer quotes.
What am I missing ? What is the rest of the investment community apparently also missing?
I just don't get it.
Please advise.

Certainly makes sense.....

Boards
I see we have a lobster caught in the pot who appears to be the "World's greatest living expert" on most matters.
I suspect he is currently printing up a new bumper sticker ?

There are some huge numbers being waved around here, but do you think that if they were remotely likely ;
1 Would RF have given up 60% of the jewel in the crown ?
2 Would the "city scribblers " not have worked it out but only the posters here ?
3 Would hedge funds be shorting the stock ?
Just a thought......
Mark you Fairdealers numbers have always been consistent and accurate

Board
Always a pleasure to read your amusingly cynical insights ! Love the bumper sticker....
Sadly our new Merc man appears to have a spot of dyslexia this pm, before his little lesson on charts he marks me for good progress by not mentioning lobsters, I did only mention it in the singular today but it does seem like he missed it, or perhaps after being sucked in by the ****terati he resents feeling like one, or even worse perhaps, a flatliner ?

Boards
Trust you are keeping well & making some headway in these odd times ?
Yes I was delighted to see yourgene numbers especially as I have exposure to them through Amati but where are they in Merc ?
They aren't in the latest accounts under direct investment holdings unless they are grouped in with "others" which would make it a tiny holding.
I see we have another poster on the board now, quite a ramper by the sounds of it, wonder if he is perhaps an unwilling lobster sucked in when the "twitterati" were predicting this was the best thing since sliced bread, with the shares rather higher than they are now ?
Certainly with the pitiful volme as he calls it , one would think it quite easy to ramp this, oddly enough it has yet to happen.

Pitter patter
I agree with Fairdealers caution, because what must be realised is that the world rather changed in early Spring for UK co's, but for Marstons it changed beyond any reasonable risk assessment could have ever invasged.Supermarkets can sell online, but Marstons pubs can't sell much online, can they ?
Thus the deal with Carlsberg which many regarded as a disposal of control of the jewel in their crown left therump mars as owners of a string of pubs, motels and a few pitcher & piano bars plus a debt mountain; whereas pre the deal on the jv, Marstons were the largest brewer in the UK, quite a difference to what shareholders owned pre lockdown. Of course the bulls will disagree but I fear holders are in choppy waters at present.